This Could Trigger a 2024 Recession

Episode #146

A 2024 recession looks a lot more likely than it did just a few months ago. While many Americans were hoping for a “soft landing,” that might not be what we get as the economy hits a breaking point. With the government only temporarily saved from a shutdown, auto workers going on strike for cost of living adjustments, student loans resuming, and oil prices skyrocketing as production slows down, we may be forced to enter into a recession.

On the flipside, GDP remains strong, Americans are still spending, and unemployment is historically low. While this could quickly change, it begs the question: is the American consumer stronger than high interest rates, rising prices, and the threat of an unknown future economy? We brought on the full "On the Market" panel to give us their take on where we’re heading and which economic threats could bring down the economy.

We’ll get into the nitty-gritty of the recent UAW strike that is putting a bottleneck on transportation, the government shutdown that risks millions going unpaid, student loan resumption that could force Americans to forgo optional spending, and an exacerbated oil price increase that is hurting the everyday American (and especially Californians).

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00:00 Intro

01:14 Redfin Ditches NAR

05:37 1. Student Loan Payments Resume

14:54 2. UAW Strikes Grow

22:30 3. Government Shutdown Looks Likely

29:20 4. Oil Prices Jump

35:49 Our Q4 Economic Forecast

[BPOnTheMarket]

Is the recession coming? Is it already here? Let us know what you think!

[alejandracheever]

Thank you for this episode! The best 💎 for me was Dave mentioning the BP money podcast episode about the ROI of college degrees. I’ve listened to it like 3x. Amazing!!!

[joematz]

Student loan payments restarting will 100% affect the housing market. Too many people removed it from their budgets over the last 3 years and kept spending all their money on other things. It will price buyers out of the market, lowering demand. It could also force people to consider selling their home if they cannot afford their mortgage along with student loans.

[whatsitlike]

Do the automakers even want the employees back? They built up so much inventory of trucks and SUV's before the strike it would probably take them a few months to sell through what's on lots.

[jonathanjames]

Didn’t they actually change what they describe as a recession? They wanted to make us feel all better lol.

[davidlurwick]

I’m not hearing any facts…just opinions.

[danielalonzo]

I live 2 blocks from a Costco store and its always bursting at the seams with people spending thousand of dollars. I have a membership (paid $20 in Mexico Costco), i buy $5 rotisserie chicken, bottle water, toilet paper and patronize the food court

[DeannaSpencer-dyjl]

All Stores Please Lower the price of all Military & Local for all Brands of Oil & Accessories & Production Cost Now That's too much $$ The Whole World Now 🙏🙏🙏

[natalieheinrich]

The economy now is dramatically different than before. Prices for regular things are way up.

Most doctors don't make this enormous salary like people think. Only the very specialized do. And they spend a decade in schools post college. 11:07

[taranwinslow]

National Parks getting shut down WILL affect your STR last minute bookings which are now accounting for more than half of all bookings on average.

[ginacardarella]

Wait, I'm a little confused and I don't mean this mean. But why is everybody like shocked that they have to pay it back, shouldn't that money have been set aside? I'm just curious and i'm a little lost why people are freaking out about it

[Slyons]

“Student loan payments restarting not a big deal, people have been paying them forever and they’ll figure it out”. - Henry, spoken truly like a finance podcaster who thinks the average person is even half as financially literate and wise with their money as you all are. Many people out there foolishly expected their loans would be entirely forgiven.

[FIRE_DrNinjaTurtle]

The federal courts do not shutdown. They have savings to pay employees

[youngone]

Macroeconomics. This is what real estate types can’t wrap their mind around. Let’s take 2008. A step back overview such as the paper, Villians or Scapegoats: The role of subprime borrowers in driving the U.S. housing boom. It explains speculation, not just subprime borrowing created 2008, is a great means to connect macro to micro.

[RosieThecarlady]

Many STR will be convert to LTR putting pressure pressure down on the rental rates, or force to sell, longer vacant times, the large investors net buyers are net sellers, like Blackrock and others, when they face a lower ROI , they will sell and flood the market, they brought the market up they will bring it down. Good news for investors if they can get finance or holding cash and bad news for people who purchased high with high interest. Like Warren Buffet said The best chance to deploy capital is when things are going down.

[giniaa]

While many people were paying student loans before the pandemic hit, inflation wasn't what it is now, with no end in sight.

[Jonathanedillon]

How about war?

Might wanna re-do this episode now.

[Matcroable]

300k of student loan over here. It’s just another way to keep poor people from entering wealthy status via a professional degree

[markbrzezinski]

Interest rates!
Interest rates!
Interest rates!

[gerardoduran]

I love these episodes, however we all this information if your really financially educated. Although no one knows what's going to happen. The facts are based on the past of actual events that in a way made an impact in a good or bad way. The one thing that will help you out is to just be prepared for the worst because if it does happen, you'll be better off than the general people. Also most of these real estate podcast are starting to be click bait.

To your endeavors.