Israel Faces an Impossible Dilemma | Day 19

0:0 - Introduction: day 19
0:19 - Qatar's progress with hostages
1:45 - Turkish statement about Hamas
2:02 - Risks of a potential World War III
2:27 - The UN Secretary General's statement about Hamas
3:55 - Palestinian support for Hamas
4:33 - Meeting between Hezbollah, PLO, and Hamas
5:13 - The Jordanian Queen's controversial statement
5:55 - IDF's operations in Syria and Lebanon
6:02 - Ehud Barak's peacekeeping proposal for Gaza
7:27 - Hamas's goals and Israel's impossible choice

[TomNash]

0:0 - Introduction: day 19
0:19 - Qatar's progress with hostages
1:45 - Turkish statement about Hamas
2:02 - Risks of a potential World War III
2:27 - The UN Secretary General's statement about Hamas
3:55 - Palestinian support for Hamas
4:33 - Meeting between Hezbollah, PLO, and Hamas
5:13 - The Jordanian Queen's controversial statement
5:55 - IDF's operations in Syria and Lebanon
6:02 - Ehud Barak's peacekeeping proposal for Gaza
7:27 - Hamas's goals and Israel's impossible choice

[haroldwarner]

Tom, I’m waiting everyday for your updates. Thanks for pushing back against ignorance. For 50 years I’ve been doing it and it can be disheartening. A lie goes around the world in seconds. Truth takes months to cross the street.

[ishaydror]

Correction: Ehud Barak DID NOT leave Gaza. It was PM Ariel Sharon, as part of the Disengagement Plan. Other than that, keep on doing your great job. Thanks!

[bpo]

Very impressed with your knowledge and analysis, Tom. Thank you

[EdititStudio]

Thanks for this video, learned some new stuff even though I live here in the middle of everything.
Be safe everyone, spread love and peace🤍

[mallikvamaraju]

Super, logical, fact based analysis tom, impressive !

[thomassimmer]

My side, right or wrong!!! This is the prevailing attitude. The idea that we should follow moral principles and agreements is on the decline. This makes for a more dangerous world.

[pavelsokov]

What if UN chief saying it wasnt in a vacuum is his form of NOT taking a side?

[ethair]

Hey tom I just watched an old video of you and I just wanted to tell you good job on losing weight man you look a lot healthier.

[RevRonC]

Tom, once again, incredible and masterful work. Thank you. So, let's summarize the current situation: 1. Hamas has demonstrated unequivocally it is an existential threat to Israel. 2. Israel knows that their previous policy has failed, and they can no longer allow Hamas to function in Gaza. 3. Hamas' use of hostages and Gaza's inhabitants as human shields is working to delay the Israeli ground offensive in Gaza. 4. The potential for escalation of the conflict leading to a regional or even world war has many leaders hoping for a solution other than Israel's ground offensive.

Ehud Barak's proposal looks promising at first glance. However, it hinges on Hamas being willing to disarm itself willingly. I don't see that as a reasonable possibility. Even if they did, there is a great probability for Hamas to hide its weapons until the Palestinian Authority takes over, then oust the Palestinian Authority's leadership and take over again. So, from my point of view, it's a no go.

I've been trying to think of a historical analogy to the current situation, and the best one I can come up with is Japan and its transition from militaristic fanaticism to writing the possibility of an offensive military out of its new constitution after WWII. If that transition could take place, there might be a path to transition Gaza to a demilitarized and willingly peaceful status. But how? How was it possible for Japan to make such a radical change?

I suspect my answer to that question will be highly controversial, and I don't mean it to be. But destructive human behavior, whether on a societal level or an individual level, tends to only change when the pain of the behavior's consequences becomes sufficient to motivate the transformation. In Japan's case, in my view, it was not only losing the war, but the way they lost it that motivated their pivot from fanaticism to reasonableness. The explosions of the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were so horrific and devastating that Japan could not see continuing down the same path it had taken for so many years.

If this analysis has any substantial merit, it offers far less hope of a successful resolution to the current situation in Gaza. First, no one would propose the use of an atomic weapon, period full stop. Nor should they. And even if one could come up with a painful price on such a level that it motivated Gaza's transformation to a peace seeking population (which I think is highly unlikely in one generation), Hamas already has followers of its philosophy spread across the Western world. It appears likely that Hamas will persist in some form under the best of circumstances.

I can only conclude that there is no lasting solution to this tragedy without a great deal of pain. And that pain will be unfairly distributed on the just and the unjust, on the innocent and the guilty. Will the international community be willing to not only allow a sufficient level of painful consequence to Hamas' actions to promote its transformation, but to actually promote it? I do not think so. Our nature is to avoid pain and to seek pleasure. The greatest probability is that we will kick the can down the road, negotiate some sort of reprieve for Hamas in exchange for release of the hostages and "security guarantees" for Israel. We will try to forget the atrocities, limit the consequences, and move on.

Until the consequences of destructive behavior rise to a level of pain that is, finally, intolerable.

[chrislinge]

Hi Tom. Love your normal Youtube channel and find this one pretty interesting. The g in Erdogan is by the way silent jfyi. I hope this whole situation somehow can be managed at least in the following years. Every outcome is possible and thinkable, what really scares me. Suffering are the civilians on both sides and this has to end.

[Irfannoork]

You seems to have taken a side too. He said that out of his life long record of UN and he did condemn Hammas as well in the same statement. You seems like a nice researcher and journalist I just wish you had taken a unbiased and neutral approach to this issue.

[jeremymott]

In Genesis 14 Abraham took 318 men with him to rescue his nephew Lot. He rescued the hostages after he fought against 4 armies and killed their 4 kings. Yes he committed 4 acts of Regicide to rescue his nephew and he was somewhere between 75 to 85 years old

[marvingarcia]

Very informative but what about the elegant in the room. Emotions aside since you like the numbers. What about the innocent casualties comparison. It’s getting completely out of hand and numerically speaking looking a lot less like a war and a lot more like genocide.

[michaelstienbeck]

Will Palantir reach your price prediction of $500.00 sooner because of Hamas and the war ? if so then this is a great thing for shareholders.

[susymay]

Israel is in a Do Not Hurry situation.

[yusselfaveljl]

Barak understands Hamas but if he thinks they will leave Gaza willingly, he's not being realistic.

[cynthialikesturtles]

the horn at 6:04 scared the shit out of me

[ItayCohen-iCD]

SHARON was the one who left Gaza & he was a right wing ideologist

[House_Of_Cards_]

All my comments about Israel are banned on Youtube 😂