Things I (Don’t) Worry About: Collapse of the Semiconductor Industry || Peter Zeihan

One of the most asked questions I receive is "what keeps you up at night?" So, I figured I would turn that question into a series called "Things I (Don’t) Worry About" where I'll discuss all the things that have me tossing and turning and what helps me sleep like a rock. First on the docket is the semiconductor industry.

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#semiconductor #china #taiwan #technology

[ASmithee]

I was employed at Intel for 15 years. When you talk about constructing a new $10B or up chip fabrication plant, the value of that is easily 3x to 4x on the local economy due to all the support industries that co-locate locally to keep that plant fed. As Peter points out, it's a swarm of thousands of workers.

[louisgiokas]

In general, I agree with Peter, with the caveat that I do not believe his assertion that we will be able to do it if Taiwan were taken. What will happen is that the industry will adapt. The whole foundry industry, which I have followed from its inception, grew organically. It was more of a business-driven process than a technological one. Some types of chips may go up in price for a while, but the system will reconfigure itself. The value of this industry is such that it will attract the capital necessary to do this and competition will drive the prices back down.

[swobo]

Peter's worry list: short
Viewers' worry list because of Peter: very, very long

[alexiskiri]

Peter, wow, this was actually good news. If the semiconductor industry goes down, then we don't have to worry about AI taking over and becoming our evil overlords. Humanity is saved.

[dougkratz]

All this "chip talk" has given me the munchies. And having my chips get smaller keeps me up at night

[brand]

We exported our prosperity to the world. The smashed to wrecked factories and buildings that litter the whole rustbelt are testament to this.
While we are re-shoring, now. I hope we never forget that grim lesson.

[ds]

The real question for public policy is why we allow ourselves to become so dependent on such fragile, complex technology for our basic needs. That is what keeps ME up at night.

[chijimmy]

Peter. I'm very impressed on how you know so much about so many subjects. How did you start out? How do you keep up with the latest happenings in tech, world politics and the others things you speak on? What I love most is the common sense approach and that it's fact based.

[jbweld]

I wish investors placed the value on Intel that you do. For the record I agree with you.

[ManforSomeMarkets]

The problem is that a Taiwan war would also disrupt shipping for Korea and Japan. Even with infinite subsidies and Defense Spending Act shenanigans the US wouldn’t be able to cover down on that lost supply for years, and that would dramatically change how consumers and industry interact with their electronics. The best case scenario is stagnation in computing performance, and the worst case is the total absence of things we took for granted. I think American voters would become unpredictable if their iPhones suddenly cost $6, 000+ per set.

[UnnamedBridgeburner]

Peter. Can you give us a breakdown of the city sized facility TSMC is building in Arizona? Can this all be nearshored to NAFTA?

[yingle]

Not being able to sleep keeps me up at night.

[AdvantestInc]

Fascinating breakdown of the semiconductor industry's complexities! It sparks a thought: in a future of increasing interdependence, how might companies further innovate to ensure resilience in their supply chains?

[mkfourwinds]

I like information. Peter’s one of my sources. I can compare his opinions with other sources. He’s serious and he puts his opinions out there to be considered. I respect his work. As for the expert trolls, you get that background noise everywhere.

[HailCaesar-lmbq]

I’m planning on going Semi Amish so good luck

[parthppopat]

Peter wants to upgrade his PC too. Makes two of us buddy. 😅

[milescoleman]

The thing your videos make me think about the most ….
Living in f$&&$& Colorado.
I lived in Golden. Conifer and then Aurora from ‘92 to ‘07. The mountains are the only place on Earth that don’t change. Denver is crazy now but up there everything pretty much the same.

[haroldhaley]

No mention of neon ? That was a big deal when talking about semiconductors a year ago because most of it came from Mariupol before Azovstal (sp?) was destroyed.

[Ryan-ffdb]

China does just fine on sub 90nm. It's the sub 10nm that's difficult because of the lack of EUV machines. Also, you have who purchases these chips backwards. The bleeding edge chips on 3, 5, 7nm are used primarily in mobile devices like phones, computers, graphics, AI, etc. The 10+ are for cars, planes, networking, Tv's etc...

[odemirbilek]

It appears there are some missed informatjon. SMIC can able to produce chip down to 14 nm without using UEV