The Monty Hall Paradox

One of the best-known, yet commonly misunderstood logic problems: the monty hall paradox.

Source: A Paradox that Fooled 1,000 PhDs!

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[chyrt]

You know what feels good? seeing a video being reuploaded on Scam School and knowing the original one.

[kylelowder]

Meanwhile on Modern Rogue, lets show you how to properly kill someone and dump their body, remember don't try this home. And then have Trevor make us the Dexter Martini.

[DiMono]

I like the explanation that says "imagine there are 100 doors. You choose one, and Monty opens 98 others. Would you switch THEN?"

[NoOneLt]

66% percent of the time it works every time

[teipkep]

Immagine 100 cards and he reveals 98 of them. You would be stupid if you still stick with the card you chose, he basically gave you the answer.

[Quintingent]

Cue the inevitable comments saying that you're wrong.

I love this problem. It's one of my favourites alongside the Birthday Paradox for being approachable yet so counterintuitive. Plus there's a variety of ways you can explain it. Of course, you do end up with a few people who will not listen regardless of the multiple explanations you give them, but no matter.

[xdragonk]

Best way to illustrate why this works (most of the time): imagine you were given 100 cards, one of which is the "car" while the rest are "goats". You were to pick any one card, and after you make the pick, we flip all the other 98 cards that are the goats. Giving you two cards choices. Will you "stay" or will you "switch"?

Of course, there is 1 in 100 chance that you picked the "car" the first time and that would suck majorly if you switch.

[CabooseTheDestroyer]

Love this paradox! Once you understand it, you feel so much smarter than everybody else!

[Ziirf]

I would stay, i always wanted a goat.

[firekirby]

Since this video was originally shown, there was actually a game that took this paradox and freaking RAN with it. The game is called Zero Escape: Zero Time Dilema, (think SAW, but with escape rooms) and in it, you are forced to pick one locker out of TEN. One locker has what you need to survive the game, while the other 9 have nothing in them. After picking one, 8 of the empty lockers are revealed, and the game allows you one last chance to switch. Not only does this SEVERELY alter the odds from 1/3 to 1/10, but it also makes the result of swapping a 9/10 chance, instead of 2/3. This is LITERALLY the paradox taken to its extreme, and trains the player to better understand the paradox, as staying makes you feel like you'll always lose, while switching almost never result poorly.
I love this paradox, and I love the Zero Escape games for taking all these crazy paradoxes and theories and absolutely RUNNING with them. Seriously, if you like either the premise of SAW, Escape Games, Mental Paradoxes and theorems, Visual Novels with a heavy emphasis on mystery, or all of the above, I absolutely recommend checking them out! Though... I definitely recommend playing them in order. (9 Hours, 9 Persons, 9 Doors > Virtues Last Reward > Zero Time Dilemma) The first two can be found in a bundle called "The Nonary Games" with updated visuals and voice acting, and definitely stands as the better version of both.

[BonsaiMaster]

I totally understand it now. Thanks Brian.

[AceCarolla]

Funny, we were just having a discussion regarding this topic and how it can pertain to gambling on the Cappersmall. Well done.

[LivefreeanddiyTv]

I love the Monty Hall Paradox! In fact, I love it so much, I once made an infographic proving it 🤓👍 ... searching for something like "lew ayotte monty hall problem" should get you there, if anyone is interested.

[adamemac]

Who else remembers when the original video was posted?
👈Yea, OG Scammer!

[banbadle]

This only works if the card you turn over is guaranteed to be a "goat"

[CalvinG]

Mythbusters did an episode on it and proved the same statistical outcome

[fastr]

Ive found that the best way to explain this problem is to say would you switch if there were 99 goats and 1 car, and after picking a door I show you the rest of the goats. My 6 year old sister understood it when put that way

[JustinOhio]

I like to describe it this way: You will pick the correct door 1/3 of the time, therefore if you switch every time, the only time you will LOSE is when you originally picked the correct door (1/3 of the time). Therefore, you win 2/3 of the time by switching. I think that's the easiest way to explain it.

[lunaticliontv]

Hey Brian, when's the meetup with Chris Ramsay? I honestly can't wait ❤

[cochiselol]

In the simplest terms I can explain this paradox. We have two players Bill and Jo. Bill always switches and Jo never switches. Whenever Bill picks a goat he wins, whenever Jo picks a goat he loses