Will Elon Musk Go All-in on Robotaxi in 2025?

Elon Musk and Tesla will have the capability to go all-in on robotaxi in 2025. Will they choose to use it? The Full self driving software is improving by two to five times every three months in terms of miles between interventions. They will get to feature complete by the end of this year. Tesla has the unused car production capacity to make an extra million cars in 2025.

Tesla and Elon Musk have the goal of reaching a world with hundreds of millions of robotaxis delivering $10 trillion per year of low cost rides.

Waymo and the other robotaxi companies have less than 500 robotaxi each and are providing less than 5 million rides every year. They are charging about $2 per mile for rides in the USA. They are not substantially beating Uber and the human driver ridesharing companies at $2.50 per mile for rides.

The China robotaxi companies like Baidu's Apollo Go have the willingness to push to thousands of robotaxi in 2025 even with human drivers or no human driver in the car and a remote driver for every 2 or 3 cars.

Will Tesla and Elon Musk be timid or aggressive with their rollout of supervised robotaxi and the transition to unsupervised?

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[Robert...Schrey]

your thinking is too complicated. they‘ll put the software on participating cars, make revenue sharing agreement, make insurance arrangement, and then it‘s up to the car owners how they‘ll use it.

[jimdalvic]

In general, to add your car to Tesla’s robotaxi fleet, Tesla sets the price. It would be a condition of joining the network.

Tesla can launch in any city in Florida. Cities and counties are not allowed to block autonomous taxis. They can prove the system out at scale in Florida.

I personally think that most people are too optimistic of the revenue bull case. Too many taxis will likely add to road congestion, so it tends to self limit. That is why Elon started the Boring Company — to allow for more traffic into city cores.

[ozbarak]

How you know how many miles in drive between interactions?

Where you get the data from?

[louisdude]

Randy, why on earth would Tesla charge $2 a mile when robotaxi initially comes out?

Let's assume cost per mile is $1 at the start due to ramp up time, initial slow rollouts etc. This is very high, but Tesla could charge $1 per mile and just breakeven for the first 12 months or so to drive adoption. There'll be infinite demand at this price point, given it's 50-75% cheaper than a regular Uber!

It makes no sense to charge the same as Uber prices at the start.

[DCGreenZone]

Almost forgot.... "Next Year" 😂

[dan]

Yes, but....
It will take several years to get done.
Add 5 years to this and your closer to the mark.

[bobbybishop]

Its still runs red lights, its not even close to being ready.

[greatcondor]

What a silly title. Elon is already 100% in on robotaxi.

[charlesminckler]

In China, maybe. In the US and EU, no chance. NTSB, DOT, will never approve autonomous vehicles in 1 year. Even 5 years to get approval is optimistic. FSD could be godly but NIMBY will win. Not to mention the taxi, limousine and Uber lobbies.

[DCGreenZone]

We'll import power from Mars to shore up the grid. 😂

[markgallagher]

Brian, you don't need Randy. He is forgetful and waffles too much, showing early dementia.