Aligned by Default: The U.S. Extended Deterrence | CGSR Seminar

U.S. allies in NATO Europe and the Asia-Pacific (above all, Australia, Japan, and South Korea) have been “aligned by default,” owing to their shared reliance on U.S. extended deterrence commitments. Counting on the United States as their supreme guarantor has made the security of the U.S. allies in these two regions interdependent. During Obama’s presidency, changing immediate and long-term U.S. regional security priorities created anxieties among U.S. allies about the diversion of U.S. attention to specific evolving challenges. U.S. allies in Europe and the Asia-Pacific were also sensitive about changes in the U.S. force posture, operational requirements, and declaratory policies in other regions. At the same time, the alliance with the United States contributed to a greater convergence of the approaches of European and Asia-Pacific countries in responding to international security challenges in both regions.

How and to what extent “alignment by default” will evolve during the Trump presidency remains to be seen. Still, analyses of how U.S. extended deterrence in one region could influence U.S. security guarantees in another region should inform efforts to strengthen an integrated multi-domain U.S. approach to extended deterrence.

Dr. Jacek Durkalec is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. His research focuses on US policy of extended nuclear deterrence, in particular its role and impact on European security in the context of current global challenges and increasingly integrated spheres of strategic deterrence and influence. His areas of interest also include NATO deterrence and defense policy, nuclear and conventional arms control, missile defense, and WMD non-proliferation. Prior to joining LLNL, from 2010 to 2017, he was a Research Analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM). He was also a Staff Member in the Missile Defense Office of the Polish Ministry of National Defense in 2009-2010, and an intern in the Strategic Planning Unit of the Executive Office of the Secretary-General of the United Nations in 2008.

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