ENG340/542 Network Modeling Lecture 6 Stochastic Models SIRS Models of Epidemics, September 28, 2021

ENG340/542 Network Modeling Lecture 6: Covers the use of stochastic (Gillespie solvers) for population infection dynamics models and some of the situations in which deterministic models and stochastic models differ in their predictions (low total populations, low initial number of infected individuals, small infectivity). We compare the difference in infection and death rates for alpha and delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 and develop a simple SIRS model of COVID-19 infection and find that it generates waves of infection. We extend this model to include a vaccination campaign and consider the consequences of reduced vaccine efficacy against the delta variant.

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