Michael O'Hanlon: The Senkaku Paradox and the Risk of Great Power War

The Senkaku islands are a string of tiny and uninhabited islands in the East China Sea. The question of who controls these barren islands is surprisingly complex as Japan administers them as part of the US-Japan Security Treaty but China also claims them. If China were to take control of one or more of the islands, the United States would, in theory, be obligated to come to Japan’s assistance to reestablish territorial control. While this threat is not necessarily imminent, it’s not inconceivable, says US defense strategy expert and Brookings Senior Fellow, Michael O’Hanlon. He posits that if the conflict between Japan, China, and the United States escalated, a major war between nuclear-armed countries could ensue.

The Senkaku islands are not the only place in the world where a small conflict could lead to a war between great powers. A small-scale Russian invasion on Narva, a small town in Estonia, a NATO alliance member, to “protect” a Russian-speaking enclave is another possible scenario which could lead to a military conflict between the United States and Russia.

What if, for example, Russia’s “little green men” seized control of this small community in Estonia? Or, what if China seized one of the uninhabited Senkaku islands now claimed and administered by Japan, or imposed a partial blockade of Taiwan? How can these types of conflicts be contained before they take the world to the brink of a nuclear catastrophe?

O’Hanlon’s recent book explores these questions of security and power in his new book “The Senkaku Paradox: Risking Great Power War Over Small Stakes.” He’ll join us to discuss his research and how a local crisis could escalate into a broader and much more dangerous threat to peace.

SPEAKER:
Michael O'Hanlon
The Brookings Institution

MODERATOR:
Mary Kay Magistad
Director of Audio Journalism, The World, UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[yttean]

I thought your guys are talking about Senkaku island and spend time talking about Russia and deployment of Nuclear weapons and Drones! Really. Basically enough talk to justify their position/job.

[hjs]

Because you wrote book, i expected you to be a thinker. But you talk like a doer, not a thinker. If u dont bother to discover the base for China's, how can you gauge their resolve and determination to take back diaoyu islands?

[hjs]

Why going over $700 on defense is not a big deal in the strategic thinking? Is it just not possible to bankrupt this great nation because we have unlimited resources?

[iraaus]

Oh my...
Let's look at some of the flash points in the world and see what if???
I suppose some need to sell a book.

[iraaus]

Oh my...
Let's look at some of the flash points in the world and see what if???
I suppose some need to sell a book.