Arctic Blue Ocean Event very possible within 3 to 6 years

Arctic Blue Ocean Event very possible within 3 to 6 years

Crucial implicit assumption: The AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) ocean currents don’t collapse. If AMOC shuts off, Arctic goes into deep freeze and Blue Ocean Event is temporarily averted for quite a while!!!

Countdown to an ice-free Arctic: New research warns of accelerated timelines

“The first summer on record that melts practically all of the Arctic’s sea ice, an ominous milestone for the planet, could occur as early as 2027.”

New peer-reviewed research paper:
“The rst ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean
could occur before 2030”

Abstract

Projections of a sea ice-free Arctic have so far focused on monthly-mean ice- free conditions. We here provide the first projections of when we could see the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean, using daily output from multiple CMIP6 models.

We find that there is a large range of the projected first ice-free day, from 3 years compared to a 2023-equivalent model state to no ice-free day before the end of the simulations in 2100, depending on the model and forcing scenario used.

Using a storyline approach, we then focus on the nine simulations where the first ice-free day occurs within 3–6 years, i.e. potentially before 2030, to understand what could cause such an unlikely but high-impact transition to the first ice-free day. We find that these early ice-free days all occur during a rapid ice loss event and are associated with strong winter and spring warming.

Crucial implicit assumption: The AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) ocean currents don’t collapse. If AMOC shuts off, Arctic goes into deep freeze and Blue Ocean Event is temporarily averted for quite a while!!!

[PaulHBeckwith]

Crucial implicit assumption: The AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) ocean currents don’t collapse. If AMOC shuts off, Arctic goes into deep freeze and Blue Ocean Event is temporarily averted for quite a while!!!

Countdown to an ice-free Arctic: New research warns of accelerated timelines


“The first summer on record that melts practically all of the Arctic’s sea ice, an ominous milestone for the planet, could occur as early as 2027.”


New peer-reviewed research paper:
“The rst ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean
could occur before 2030”

Abstract

Projections of a sea ice-free Arctic have so far focused on monthly-mean ice- free conditions. We here provide the first projections of when we could see the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean, using daily output from multiple CMIP6 models.

We find that there is a large range of the projected first ice-free day, from 3 years compared to a 2023-equivalent model state to no ice-free day before the end of the simulations in 2100, depending on the model and forcing scenario used.

Using a storyline approach, we then focus on the nine simulations where the first ice-free day occurs within 3–6 years, i.e. potentially before 2030, to understand what could cause such an unlikely but high-impact transition to the first ice-free day. We find that these early ice-free days all occur during a rapid ice loss event and are associated with strong winter and spring warming.



Crucial implicit assumption: The AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) ocean currents don’t collapse. If AMOC shuts off, Arctic goes into deep freeze and Blue Ocean Event is temporarily averted for quite a while!!!

[basilbrushbooshieboosh]

You're a stalwart Paul. Good work.

[michaelschiessl]

Many thanks Paul ...Many thanks Newton!!

[kennethstealey]

Good Morning Paul,
Thanks for all your hard work.

[glike]

The interaction between the AMOC and Blue Ocean event might have a very important role.

[devinebucklin]

You are the shyt Paul, love that you continue your work. I appreciate it greatly!

[hooplawithbilliesue]

Just checked NSICD and we are currently below 2012-2013 levels.

[ronkirk]

Back a few years ago, I kayaked the Mackenzie R. in Canada and continued on out to the Arctic ocean to Tuktoyatuk on the coast and met a couple in a sailboat who were waiting for the last of the sea ice to melt so they could complete a transit of the Northwest passage. They said that there were several more boats on the other side of the ice waiting to continue westward. Pretty soon boats won't have to wait for the last of the winter ice and it will be smooth sailing.

[TheKolenbrander]

Thank you Paul for all your videos and clarity given to those that can handle it! One question i have. Will an early shut down of the AMOC (say 2030s) slow down or even stop BOEs in the future?

[Sherkhan]

One worth reading article published (by the Geophysical Research Letters) in 2019, Radiative Heating of an Ice-Free Arctic Ocean, by Kristina Pistone, Ian Eisenman and Veerhabradan Naramathan, states that an ice-free Arctic ocean will have a similar effect as the sudden release of 1000 Gt of CO2 in the atmosphere. In terms of global warming, it will be like a 25 years jump in the future. Here in Brittany, on the Atlantic shore, I'll be well placed to witness the resulting superstorms Jim Hansen told us about already many years ago.

[frictionhitch]

The good news is that we are mining more fossil fuels than ever before. Renewables have been growing and we have been replacing them with more fossil fuels. Progress is happening.

[coka]

Everything is possible, Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University predicted in 2012 that the Arctic would be ice-free in the summer by 2016, plus or minus 3 years.

[robertforsythe]

Will the AMOC shutdown alter this predictive paper? So many modifiers of the current Climate based extinction event. We all have a good idea of what is to come but the details are yet to be seen. Thank you professor, Your work is known worldwide. I think AMOC shut down is right around the corner, 3-6 years could well be both these coming events.

[adrianpike]

Shouldn't we be thinking the other way; a blue ocean event will accelerate the warming in the Arctic which will cause the AMOC to shut down earlier?

[goodenough]

Awww such a good dog. They give so much to us ❤

[celloprivate]

Seems to me the real tipping point is a BOE during the arctic day (when the sun is still up) I think more attention needs to be paid to the acidity/toxicity associated with permafrost melt too, a lot of people are counting on increased productivity of northern lands to buffer consequences and that isn't going to work out like they expect.

[thevindictive]

I can't keep a newton in my country as its in the tropics. But I do have an adorable toy version of newton.

Seriously thinking of keeping my toy poodle, hair trimmed short, because its getting very hot.

[rdallas]

"Newton Endorphins" Genius. 😉 😜 😊

[jeffjustjeff]

The moment we start seeing blue ocean events, I might stop paying my bills

[FrankWhite]

Its gonna be interesting to see if the arctic or antarctic will be ice free first 🤔