The infamous overpopulation bet: Simon vs. Ehrlich - Soraya Field Fiorio

Discover an infamous bet between two professors, which sought to predict whether the earth would run out of resources due to a growing human population.

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In 1980, Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon bet $1,000 on a question with stakes that couldn’t be higher: would the earth run out of resources to sustain a growing human population? They bet $200 on the price of five metals. If the price of a metal decreased or held steady over the next decade, Simon won. If the price increased, Ehrlich won. So, what happened? Soraya Field Fiorio investigates.

Lesson by Soraya Field Fiorio, directed by Avi Ofer.

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[eduardobarros]

That's literally the problem of Brazil. We're an extremely rich country with the greatest water supply, both pluvial and mineral, and one of the biggest agriculture market, but with corrupt politicians diverting funds, we can't give everyone an equal chance of making money. This year, the unemployement and famine rates are skyrocketing.

[imaginegalaxy]

The Way you illustrate your videos make a huge impact on what the watcher feels. Each video has a different type of illustration and getting information in us! Beautiful videos!

[PramkLuna]

Science rivalries? Great Animation? A random topic I've never heard of?

Now THIS is a Ted Ed video

[SATYANSH]

Animation looks like something out of a Roald Dahl book, love it!🤩

[ZOCCOK]

The most unbelievable thing was that the person who lost the bet paid the amount 😂

[snowcold]

We actually already produce enough food for everyone on earth, and even for a population of 11 billion which is supposed to be our peak.
It is just not profitable enough to feed everyone.

[kushalvora]

1:35 he was kind of right. Cultured meat, precision fermentation, plasma technology, vertical farming etc can not only boost yield but also improve quality.

[tylerkol]

The animation makes the video more interesting really love the work you do TED. 🥰

[effiethefey]

I can never stress enough how amazing the work of TED-Ed animators is! It's so sad that they don't get all the well-deserved recognition😕 This episode's is one of my favorites!

[Cronuz]

The little girl with the sign says: "School strike for the climate."
its in sweedish, a referance to Greta Thunberg.

[md.zimamahmed]

I like how Ehrlich adjusted for inflation in Simon's way

[revysingh]

I find it remarkable that Victorian-level mathematics from Thomas Malthus is still widely accepted and proposed by non-economists in the 21st century. Maybe because it's simple to understand. Whereas something like Econometrics requires more than mere high school-level math.

[manjushaiyer]

The background music sets the tone perfectly for each section💜

[Jone]

The price of metals seems like a good choice to me. The bet had nothing to do with how charitable rich nations would be in the future, just their ability to efficiently utilize scarce resources.

[zedwms]

This is a naïve view. It took man ~200, 000 years to grow from ~2 to 2.5 billion, and now it has only taken us 65 years to triple that population to 7.5 billion. Nothing in our 200, 000 years of experience prepares us for this, and we are handling it very, very poorly. We are innovative, but there are many critical issues that are quickly reaching their tipping point.
Check out Enrico Fermi's Great Filter.

[jameslongstaff]

I learned about this wager in my environmental economics course in college. Thanks for making a video so it's easier for me to explain this to people

[carsondubs]

Ronald Reagan laughing hysterically at the idea of a wildfire is the most Ronald Reagan thing I've ever scene

[robbieaulia]

The fact that 40% of US food goes to waste every year. And there are 300 million people living in the US, which means that the US waste food that could be used to feed 240 million people each year, and that number is only growing. This says a lot about our understanding of overpopulation, not to mention the fact that 90% of farmland is used to feed animals which their meat only makes up for 10% of our diet. The limit of population is not close from being reached in my opinion. And if you say that we may ran out of trees to produce oxygens, well algae makes up 40% of all oxygen production on Earth, and Algae can be grown easily.

[SifuBillStewart]

The undercurrent of this video's premise is obviously incorrect. While I would agree that the way the earths' population lives, consumes energy, and excretes both carbon and methane, is a bigger factor than simple population, that does not mean that it's all that matters.

Endless economic and population growth is mathematically and obviously doomed to end with destroying earth as a habitat for humanity. We all need to dial down our lifestyles and decrease the number of people too.

[madmonkee]

Always prioritize the environment. The economy does no good if one can't eat.