What does “chance of rain” really mean? #shorts

If there’s a 16% chance that it will rain in your area, what does that actually mean?

[anushkars]

I'll tell you a more accurate way. You forget the umbrella at home and it 100% rains.

[charlescilek]

Dude at my work told me “if it’s 20%, no rain. If it’s 40%, probably no rain. If it’s 30%, you’re guaranteed to get at least a sprinkle”
He has not been wrong once in the time since

[dlifedt]

There’s another issue: confidence of rain is the proportion of models that had rain. So even in the “rainy” portion you may not get rain at all

[rex_yourbud]

" Less intimidating Vsauce doesn't exist "
Him :

[Rondoooo]

German rain math is simple: 0% - 100% always means rain

[pianoboogie]

Thats 'Cap' if you get the reference

[TheMedicatedArtist]

It’s rain a lot where I live. My rule of thumb is if it’s 20% or under, bring a jacket with a hoodie. Anything over that and I carry my umbrella.

[nd-place]

Here is my overly complicated explanation of rain chances:

0% chance means it might rain today
10% chance means they don’t even mention it in the forecast but there’s that one slightly darker, heavier puffy cumulus cloud that might pass by and sprinkle for 30 seconds if you’re in the right spot
20% chance means absolutely 100% no rain
30% chance means you’ll get a brief shower or two
40% chance means no rain
50% chance means it will rain if you don’t have an umbrella and won’t rain if you do have an umbrella
60% chance means no rain unless you’re having a bad day or your hair needs to look nice
70% chance means it will definitely rain on and off most of the day
80% chance means it could rain
90% chance means get a boat and if you don’t have a boat, make one
100% chance means it will rain some early and then stop way before they said it would and then quickly dry up and a lot of confused people will be asking “Did it rain earlier? I heard it was going to rain and don’t want to get drenched.”

[hyun-shik]

So basically it’s the chance that it rains on you specifically.

[peanutt]

Ah, the weatherman. The only job where you can be wrong most of the time and still have a job.

[mishchayt]

so basically it’s the chance that you would be in a rainy area if you chose a random spot in the city

[bili]

I just look up at the sky and the spirits tell me if it’s going to rain or not. Never fails me.

[JustaReadingguy]

Out here in the dry desert, a percentage of rain really means a percentage of seeing a cloud.

[sledgedragon]

Never once have I been worried enough about rain to check the chance of it.

[ryanandaaron]

That's CAP

C = Confidence that it will rain.
A = Percent of area that will rain.
P = Probability of rain.

[jatinxx]

So basically every prediction is C A P

[nmc]

that is why you also have to check how many mm of rain might fall on you

[nandanvb]

So basically the chance of rain my phone tells me is *cap.*

[Losdiariosdemel]

In the meantime me: living in the tropic, laughing at weather forecasts

[theDevourerOfChaos]

Proof that looking outside will help someday