2024 Senate Forecast Shows Republicans With Fundamental Advantage

Most coverage of the 2024 Senate elections frames the race for the majority as leaning fundamentally Republican. That’s largely because out of the 34 seats on the ballot, 23 are currently filled by Democratic caucus members. Of the 10 presumed battleground states, Democrats are defending eight, including three that Trump won twice.

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Election Predictions Official is the fastest-growing non-partisan political channel on YouTube, focused on analyzing and forecasting elections based on socio-demographics, polling data, and voting patterns. My official 2020 Presidential Election Forecast correctly predicted the outcome in 49 of 50 states. My 2022 Senate Forecast accurately projected the winners in 33 of 34 races.

This channel is run solely by Ryan Gest, a student at The George Washington University's School of Media and Public Affairs, and an elections data science fellow at Decision Desk HQ.

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[Chimpnole]

It depends on how much cheating they get away with this time.

[TheSoloAsylum]

I will never vote for any democrat, for any position again in my life.

[GraceEarney-divj]

We need to vote Republican all the way. The Democrats don't want to close the borders

[Valhalla_Heathen]

Nevada switched red, enough said! Viva Trump 🎉

[MrHavingfun]

The mandates, wokeness, and valuing illegals over Vets did it for me.

[Mary-lzqk]

Chuck Schumer definitely needs to lose his seat😂

[Dodgerblue-eyql]

Your prediction model seems much more realistic than some of the pie in the sky predictions of others giving Republicans 56 seats in the Senate. Either way the Republicans need a new Senate majority leader. Mitch McConnell should not hold the position.

[donaldd]

Republicans need to put in a lot of effort and win Arizona back again.

[YankeeValleypolitics]

I really don't see Democrats hanging on to Ohio and Montana

[geraldmantanona]

In Nevada, Jacky Rosen is losing to Sam Brown, West Point Graduate, Former US Army Officer & Combat Veteran! 👍🏾🇺🇸

[jerryarcher]

If the republicans get back in charge, they better retire McConnell and vote Hawley in as majority leader.

[cameraman]

Pray that this is not a repeat of ‘22’.

[DaGoatYaHeard]

The only questions at this point are can we get to November without screwing it up and can we manage to not wet the bed on controlling all three yet again.

[williammitchell]

It would be great if the Republicans win back the Senate, but what good would that be if Mitch McConnell remains as Senate Republican leader? Ditch Mitch!

[paulgee]

Joe Manchin was smart to retire Voted to Impeach Trunp twice in a R +40 state . Governor Justice would beat Manchin like a drum .

[Spillers]

With Sinema and a Democrat running running for Senate in Arizona, wouldn't they split the Democrat vote almost ensuring the Republican candidate will win?

[allenseymour]

Need to get out and vote vote, the American future depends on it, every last votes needs to be counted straw polls do not count.

[garryb]

Good, with Trump back in office we need a Republican Senate to get things done.

[peterjermey]

Given the map for 2024 Republicans will have to try really hard not to win

[brian_lic]

Now that our very popular former republican governor has entered the race in Maryland, I’d suggest moving Maryland to at least leaning R.