Unemployment is about to explode. Fed will be forced to cut rates.

The unemployment rate in America has risen from 3.4% to 4.1%, with the raw number of unemployed Americans spiking over the last year. The net result is that the US economy is inching closer and closer to recession.

Historically - when the unemployment rate increases this much in a short period of time, it signals that the economy is building negative momentum that becomes self-reinforcing, and eventually results in a widespread recession.

This same increase in unemployment occurred in late 2007 and mid-2000 before the Great Financial Crisis and Dotcom Bubble Bursting.

Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve are closely monitoring these numbers. And they will likely cut interest rates at some point later this year to help the economy. The question is if it will be too little, too late.
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[ReventureConsulting]

They're trying to make it seem like the increase in unemployment is small.

It's not. There's been a 14% surge in the raw number of unemployed Americans over the last year. Historically, when that threshold is breached, it means recession momentum becomes unstoppable. 1:16

Next 6 months will be very interesting.

[micheal_mills]

Crash fatigue is showing with most people. Most are so tired of hearing about the worse even though its true. We are being boiled slowly in the pot! I want to diversify my $80k portfolio.

[Beatricegove]

The Fed's talk of interest rate cut leaves me pondering what stocks to buy now and when do I sell? I'm unsure how to properly allocate my money to achieve an optimal portfolio in this present economy, my goal is $3m for retirement.

[Pat_laura]

I recognize the hardships that come with economic struggles like unemployment, job loss, inflation, housing market instability, political uncertainties, and the global impact of conflicts and wars. Making ends meet during such times can be incredibly challenging. To navigate this difficult period, considering alternative job prospects, enhancing skills through online courses, and expanding your network can heighten the chances of securing employment. Moreover, prudent budgeting, exploring available financial aid programs, and seeking assistance from community organizations can offer some relief. How are you currently tackling these challenges? Have you implemented any specific strategies to cope?

[JacobPaul-np]

The fact that there is already an excessive amount of demand awaiting its absorption, despite how everyone is frightened and calling the crash, is another reason why it is less likely to occur that way. 2008 saw no one, at least not the broad public, making this forecast, as I'll explain below. The ownership rate was noted to have peaked in 2004 in the other comment. Having previously peaked in the second quarter of 2020, we are currently at the median level. Between 2008 and 2012, it dropped by 3%, and by the second quarter of 2020, it had dropped from 68 to 65.

[nicolasbenson]

I see the rising interest rate as a very big problem, as more investors will definitely pull out more money from the Stock market. This might have worked when I was still invest-ing with a couple thousand dollars, but it is more difficult now to decide whether to pull out more than $365k from my port-folio. I know some inves-tors still make that despite the strong bear market. In wish I could pull that feat

[christopherduff]

I have an engineering degree and got layed off last year. Working 60 hours a week to earn 20% less doing warehouse jobs/ gig economy. Job data is a joke. No one is hiring

[kare]

It's already a quiet depression. So many people with blinders on.

[SchindlerNelson]

Thank you for your honesty and transparency. It's refreshing to see someone acknowledging the harsh reality of rising prices, which are leaving many of us feeling battered and bruised.While I'm grateful to be in a position to absorb these costs, my heart goes out to those who are struggling to make ends meet and can't afford their basic necessities. made $38k from my little invested $11k regardless of how bad it gets on the economy.

[williamrinaldi]

Laid off Senior Software Engineer. Most jobs receive several hundred, if not thousands, of applications. The job market is broken.

[marivega]

Since January 2024 I have applied to over 200 listings and I've only had one interview.... and that's with several years of experience in the industry AND while being employed.

[msbethmildhyperbaricoxygen]

Then there are people like my husband and I that don’t qualify for unemployment and aren’t counted. He has an interview today, first in 7 months.

[keithwalter]

Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.

[kendavies]

Don’t be fooled stocks are not the economy, I had 250k put aside waiting for the fed to stop raising rates. Now I want to get back into the markets, but the hike might continue and stocks will still climb, I’m confused on how to strategise and happy to discuss.

[nameblocked]

The Fed should be raising rates until the price of real estate and automobiles are cut at least 60%. Low rates are what got us here.

[Dantursi]

I was part of the recent layoffs at twitter and this bites hard. Grateful that I kept some savings about 600k tho! Now I am looking for ways to invest this into the stock market to generate good dividends to supplement for my monthly expenses.

[AJ-oxxy]

I am a HVAC journeyman. I work on all kinds of boilers, furnaces, ACs, heat pumps, appliances, etc. Basically anything that deals with cooling or heating or some kind of plumbing or mechanical system, I work on it.

I easily walk into 3 to 7 homes everyday.

Something i have increasingly notcied in the last 6 months is how many people that call me who are not working. Everyday I have at least 1 household I walk into and they are not currently working due to recent job loss or something else.

Its crazy to me that so many people are out of work. Concerning to say the least, especially because it will ultimately the entire economy along with my business if people by in large can't pay for my services.

[joe]

The company my lady is working at started layoffs yesterday ....
Everyone is scared

[k.williamelliott]

Jerome said a year ago people would lose their jobs in the effort to get to 2%. He made good on his promise.

[Steven_Will]

Why have we normalized them lying to us about the numbers?