What If There Was No 'Long Peace' After Napoleon?

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In this video I look at how Europe's might have gone into an alternate future if the Congress of Vienna had failed. After the fall of Napoleon Bonaparte, Russia and Prussia tear a rift between the great powers by forcing annexations of Saxony and Poland, leading to a drastically different post war world order. Does this mean instant war again? Probably not, all the nations were exhausted and a Prussian Russian alliance is more militarily powerful than Austria and France are on the continent, meaning the war would be a gamble for Austria which they would not take.

So, going into the rest of history things remain relatively the same. Austria consolidates control over Italy and Germany and from 1815 to around 1848 Europe remains mostly peaceful. In 1848 a Hungarian revolution overthrows Austrian power, leading to the fall of Austria from powers and land and influence grabs by the other continental powers. Only at this point does Britain really realize the post-Napoleonic world order was not good for stability, but it was too late. Britain would have consolidated the rest of the world as they did in our timeline, but in 1848 would again have to stand between any hegemon on the European continent...

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[possiblehistory]

Thank you all for watching! To support the channel leave a like and a comment, interactions really help the video grow! Even just commenting "Hi" helps the channel out massively. Subscribe for more weekly alternate history content!

[thegreatestoctopus]

I think the ottomans would be allied to the brits and Prussians, a war is likely to happen either in the 1860's (like the prusso-austrian and Franco-Prussian wars for example) or the early 20th century as ww1, depending on when the war happens, Prussia might dominate the continent with the help of Britain or it might be stomped out by the French and Russians early in its tracks. It's a very interesting scenario no one has really talked about, keep up the good work Mr. Potential and always remember you will grow big quite soon! Have a great day!

[CoryAlbrecht]

A couple of things:
- Viscount Castlereagh was equally as important as Metternich in shaping the Vienna Congress deals, and as a good friend of Tsar Alexander I and strongly moderated the Tsar's opinion on things
- Prussia wanted Westphalia more than they wanted Saxony or Posen, so would never agree to such a Russian where they didn't get Westphalia

[alberto]

One correction, France wasn’t occupied, as the 1814 Treaty of Paris removed all allied troops from France (in return for France recalling the troops that it still had in Italy, Germany and even Poland)

[ShadowSkryba]

You can't just put Poland in the middle of the thumbnail and only mention them getting annexed by Russia, dammit! We had the November Uprising of 1830 and Spring of Nations movements. Wouldn't an independent Poland be perfect to punish Russia and/or Prussia depending on the scenario?
Overall great video!

[commodorezero]

I think a more accurate way to look at would be two 40ish year windows of peace because the 1855-1870 period had a lot of great power wars. While there was never a war all the great powers were involved in most were involved.

[chrisgarbutt]

I have a scenario. What if the Chartist movement in the 1830s ended with a British Republican Revolution. A British Republic scenario in the 19th century is rarely done and it would be lead to many interesting questions.

[lordbonney]

Only one critique… during the Russo-Prussian exchange of Saxony for Poland, the powers of France, Britain, Austria, Bavaria and Hanover all began to mobilise once more.

The exchange would be disastrous for Austria and Britain. Austria only maintained relevancy through its friendship with & protection of minor states, and the British public were vocal about independence for Saxony and Poland. And Lord Liverpool, the PM of the UK, was threatening war.

France wishes for an independent Saxony and Poland as they were France’s historical allies in their respective regions…

The exchange going ahead would’ve meant another war. War was only prevented in our timeline as the Congress gave Prussia the Rhineland in return for them leaving southern Saxony. Without Prussia, the Russia Tsar gave in and maintained as pseudo-independent Kingdom of Poland.

[danny]

The causes of World War I would be very different in this alternate timeline.

[rmar]

Would love a part two. I’m guessing in this timeline, there is still a Russo-Japanese war. A stronger Russia may fair better in such a war.

[wavemanj]

Your a great YouTuber bro I aspire to be on the same path as you

[Eliel]

What if Paraguay won the War of Triple Alliance?
What if Bolivia won the Chaco War?
What if Uruguay never existed?

[milas]

according to many historians war was most likely to start in 1814 (between all the great powers) but the return of Napoléon in 1815 gather them against France. Great-Brittain, Austria and France even made an alliance againts Russia and Prussia. All these countries were ready to go to war

[JitojiOMG]

One big change is that Ferdinand VII of Spain is not restored by the French intervention, leading to Spain being able to sent armies to the americas and crushing Bolivar's Colombia's separatist movements and Jose de San Martin's in Argentina. Spain is by far and away, the biggest winner in this scenario

[kuhluhOG]

In out timeline the Revolutionaries made the offer to the Prussian king to be the emperor of a parliamentarian monarchy of a united Germany (without Austria).
I could see that in this timeline he could get a similar offer and accept it which would have quite a few results:
- no French-German "Erbfeindschaft"
- faster german industrialisation (the policies from before and after the failed revolution were a big hindrance to it)
- there were a lot of smart people (especially students and university professors) who fled after the revolution to especially the US and Australia, this would not happen
- way more unified population; in out timeline there was quite some discontent with the German Empire by former non-Prussian states which was "solved" by leaning even more into Nationalism and Militarism than Prussia did already; this wouldn't be needed leading to a potentially way more peaceful Germany

[Flariom]

A video on one of the possible alternate ends would be nice, great video +1sub

[kuroazrem]

Possible future for this scenario:
Britain, Prussia, Portugal, Spain and the Ottoman Empire join to fight against Russia and France; crushing them. As such, Spain gets Morocco and Algeria as colonies, the Ottomans don't collapse and gain some territories in the Caucasus from Russia, and Prussia unifies the German States (except Austria, which collapses later thanks to nationalist revolutions), leading them to later become a colonial power. Italy eventually unifies though.

[apolloniapythia]

As always a well thought Alternetive Timeline. Thank you.
But this AT has one big point: the weakness of the Austrians. Austria had been dominated by Metternich through and because of the successful Congress of Vienna. Lacking this success it is questionable if he would stay in power. But his system of oppression - so falsly claimed as "Biedermeier" - froze Austrian progression for 2 -3 generations. You will find many inventions which were realised outside of Austria because of this system. Generally Metternich had been dispised by many for is hands in the dalliance between Habsburg and Napoleon, so a Prusso-Russian Alliance against Austria and the occupation of Poland by Russia and Saxony by Prussia would mostly finish his fate. And that would change a lot:
a) Prussia without the Rhine provinces but conquering Saxony would have his army there and not in Belgian in 1815
b) Belgium as Austrian Netherlands (inclusive Luxemburg and Lüttich) would need Austrian troops, which may play the Prussian role in Napoleons 1815 campaign.
c) As in 1866 with Hannover you may think that the Saxon Royal court and many of its loyalists would go to Austria - as had happened with many Saxonian officers and troops in the Seven Year War.
d) So Prussia in this timeline would be mostly an agrarian feudal state lacking the future industrial core region of Germany - trhe Rhineland; in addition a highly populated region (~3, 0 Mio in 1816 - 10% of the population of the German Confederation)
The Prusso-Russian alliance may had Sweden forced to give Sweden-Pomeria to Prussia and making the Scandinavion Kingdoms strong enemies - Denmarck would annex Holstein and Lauenburg maybe even Oldenburg and the three Hanseatic cities (at least their would by some form of alliance:.
Prussia would be controlled by the agrarian Junckers and their conservativ-militaristic world view.
e) After the final defeat of Napoleon 1815 by an English-Dutch-(North-)German and Austrian-(South-)German Alliance, maybe with a few more battles than in our timeline but with the same end result! So Great Britain and Austria would now dictate this peace and they would go again with two middöe states between France and Austria - in the south an enlarged Piemont with its former territories occupied by France and maybe some additional fertile lands in southern France and the Italian Corsica (which had been Genuees which had been then Piemont too).
f) In the north may have two solutions:
1. Austria holds to the rich Austrian Netherlands and takes the catholic Rhineland while Hannover will be enlarged by Westfalia. As for Prussia in our timeline there would come a Zollverein between the two Austrian parts and the southern German states.
2. Alternative there may be the rebirth of an idea born short before the French revolution: the creation of a third large German state beside Prussia and Austria: a Wittelsbach kingdom at the lower Rhine. (1779/80 tried emperor Joseph II. to exchange the Austrian Netherlands with Bavaria - which ended with a defeat against Fredrick II. in the so called Austro-Prussian potato war). Now it may happend: the Wittelsbach dynasty would get a kingdom formed of the palateate of the Rhine, the Rhine-province, including the former Bavarian duchies of Jüllich and Berg and parts of the former French/German duchies of Lotheringa and Bar as the Elsasss and former Austrian Sundgau and the Austrian Netherlands inclusive Luxemburg and parts of their lost territories to France. Austria would become Bavaria which would additional boost its German population part of the empire.
In this AT there would be two big catholic and protestantic German states with a protestantic Netherland in the west and a protestantic Danish-North-German Kingdom in the north with a few states between.
The two big powers would be Great Britain and Russia which would clash in the declining Ottoman empire, Persia, India and China.
A few further thoughts:
In this AT there will be now Holy Allinace which pressured the middle states in Germany to make liberal reforms. And already Joseph II. wanted reforms which would strongly reduced the influence of the catholic church in Austria and Francis I had bad a very liberal education as prince of Tuscany before his father became emperor Leopold II. He became more and more conservative with the long war but his brothers Charles and Johann ahad been reformers - one of the military and one political economical and socially - married to the daugther of a simple post master - he had been Germanies Reichsverweser in 1848/49; so Austrias development from 1815 in this AT might be strongly differ to the non-development under the Metternich police state.
The Wittelsbach Rhine-kingdom - mostly catholic with a mixed French-German border population might have a future with some possible reforms. With the stability of the occupied kingdoms of Saxony and Bavaria I`m doubtful; the populations might be lethargic after nearly 25 years of war but how well the integration would go might well depend on the economic and legal development in Austria and Prussia.
The situation in Italy had been very different: while in Germany the kings and princes of the most territories stayed in power eliminated the kings of Piemont all other ruling houses and put the pope under siege. Even at the begin of the 20th century had been the language differences in Italy so big that people from the south had trouble to speak to those of the north. And its unification war in 1848/49 had been a military desaster.

[theDoctorwitTardis]

"Britain looked upon this map and thought it was good." I flashed an image in my head of Britain smacking the map saying *'dat shit look good!!* at this line.

[matthiuskoenig]

Something which could detail this timeline is when the revolutions took place. If the hungarians revolt before the german pan nationalists the Austrians might be more willing to support german unification, potentially keeping Austria as a central player.