Paul M. Rady School of Computer Science and Engineering

[JSIsaiah]

Sadly, Paul Rady's E&P company, Antero Resources, lost 80% of its market capitalization since this video is published. Paul is a great person, a loving father, as this video shows. Nevertheless, Paul is probably one of the worst capital destroyers ever. In the past five years, Antero Resources, his company, squandered $ 7 billion dollars in capital expenditure, and after all that spending, his company is currently only $ 985 million in terms of market capitalization. His company generates no free cashflow for his shareholders, and he made so many strategic and corporate mistakes. For one, he lifted his hedges when strip was $3.00/mmbtu, costing his shareholder $100 mil dollars, more than 10% of the current market cap of his company. He made poor capital allocation decisions, such as having 4.9 Bcfpd of firm transport when the market is absolutely flooded with a lot of cheap natural gas.

Not saying Paul is not a great business man. But the massive destruction of his company's market cap, and the precipitous decline of share value from $68/share to $3/share in 5 years, is both startling and appalling, if not down-right shameful. My advise to Paul would be: renegotiate midstream contract with AM, sell firm transport at a loss, and stop being a stubborn natural gas bull -- he has been wrong forever on the direction of gas price. Otherwise, AR will have more than $4 bil debt exiting 2020, and it will probably take forever (and I mean it) for him to de-lever his company -- all this is assuming Paul does not drive his company into bankruptcy facing the maturity wall that is coming due in less than two years through outspending.
Fingers crossed for him that the strip improves.

Time to be worried, time to be wary for the AR management team.