Is Trump Losing His Electoral College Advantage? | 538 Politics podcast

As early voting kicks off in states across the country, the crew dives into an intensifying election season on this week’s installment of the 538 Politics podcast. They discuss whether early voting data can offer clues about November's outcome, analyze conflicting polls from key battleground states and examine the potential for a shift in the GOP’s Electoral College advantage. Plus, the team previews 538’s new Senate polling averages, focusing on the races that could determine control of the chamber.

[americanexpat]

Just mailed my ballot a few hours ago....

[d.b.]

In California you get an I Voted sticker with your mail in ballot 😊 🐻

[davidwatson]

I question the morals of a person that would vote for a serial rapist.

[americanexpat]

Given that NC is a toss up at the presidential level, any depressed turnout due to the goofy R governor choice could be enough tip the state to Harris. Doesn't take much when Trump won it by only 75, 000 last time.

[deboraho]

Don’t let polls determine your opinion on outcomes of the election. Now is not the time for voters to become complacent and comfortable with polls. Get out and vote! Vote Harris/Walz as well as Democrats up and down the ballot 2024! 💙🗳️🙌🏼

[TheCinder]

Canvassing for Harris Walz in Wisconsin, I am seeing more people for Harris but still very purple where I am. Not many Trump signs up, but I think there are a lot of people who are embarrassed that they are still voting Trump. It is close out there kids.

[fthcm]

How is this race between Harris and Trump even close?

[disasterarea]

I'm registered in virginia (live overseas though), got my mail in ballot via email already. going to drop it off at the embassy in a couple days. lets go harris walz!

[unconventionalideas]

The State of NC has a bunch of different crazy candidates down-ballot today, and the state is sufficiently close that any little thing can change the outcome.

[LordOfGreatness]

A bad way of making an average is to kick out the pollsters who is actually accurate.

[yellowtents]

Voted in Minnesota early for Kamala D Harris

[TheGeorgeous]

Please people, read about -"The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact" (NPVIC) is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential ticket wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

19 states have signed. We just need- Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia and Nevada along with either Arizona or Wisconsin to ensure the electoral college system is removed and the Popular vote is what counts like every other nation in the world.

[DHa-ogdx]

It is my hope that Trump lose big, big time because he is dangerous, not fit, and not qualified to occupy the Whitehouse again. 💙💙Voting Kamala Harris for president and voting blue up and down the ballot. 💙💙

[gloriawilson]

Give me a break...Harris will get 95% of the black vote.

[jclaburn]

But what about voter turnout in NC where the Trump campaign didn’t invest in field offices, from what I understand, and ordinarily any decent governor’s campaign has a very big turn out and field office network, but Robinson in NC has lost his campaign funding all his important staff and many rank and file Republican volunteers are disinclined to work for him.

Isn’t this a big problem for Trump potentially costing him 1, 2 or even 3% and losing the state. Marginal Republican voters who don’t show up on Election Day because they don’t get calls and door knocks from either the Republican governor or Presidential campaigns.

[disasterarea]

will there be a full senate *model*? what do you think about the nebraska race? the polls for osborn are remarkable but it's hard to know how real it is.

[Rationalityislost]

I really want more data on Missouri. I don't think we will have anything until the election though.

[rossjennings]

The weirdest thing about the 2020 election was that Democrats managed to pull off a Senate majority. Without some major political realignment, it's easy to imagine that they might never do that again. The geography of it is just so bad. There are maybe 18 or 19 safe blue states, and 24 or 25 safe red ones. That translates directly into a number of Senate seats. That means that in a "neutral" environment, Democrats have 36-38 safe seats, and Republicans have 48-50, with something like 12-16 seats being competitive. Democrats have to hold almost all of those to get a majority; Republicans only have to snag a couple.

[tps]

If it’s Nate Cohn…it’s bad use of polling data.

[specialnewb]

Nyt sienna single handedly keeping trump in this