Election 2024: How Political Polls Really Work

Our listeners have lots of questions about polling.

Questions such as: Is it still relevant? How does it work? How do you get a reliable sample when people don’t answer the phone?

At this point in a usual primary season, still weeks away from Super Tuesday, most of the attention of polling would be on who might capture the nomination.

But this year, with the race all but set, we’re anticipating nine months of polling on two men we already know very well.

Today, to prepare for that future and to answer the many questions on the subject, we go behind the scenes with the New York Times polling team. And Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst, introduces us to “double haters” and other swingy voters he thinks will decide 2024.

[RayThomasEyeOfRay]

One of my biggest questions was the methodology behind the polls! Thanks for shedding light on this!

[suns]

I've been here 7+ decades and never been polled. I'm one of millions upon millions who never have. Ask what methodology they're using? Online? Cellphone? Landline?

[danwylie-sears]

It's not that people are unwilling to answer polls. It's that the spam-blocking system classifies polls along with some putative Nigerian prince asking for your help with a bank transfer, or worse, the 3, 979, 655th call from a political campaign asking for a contribution.

[whatupdawg]

I don’t under stand why they use land lines

[suns]

Pollsters are STILL desperate to remain relevant.