Are We Dumb about Intelligence? Amy Zegart on the Capabilities of American Intel Gathering

Recorded on March 17, 2022

Amy Zegart is a fellow at the Hoover Institution, a professor of political science at Stanford University, and the author of a new book, Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence. In this frank conversation, Zegart grades American intelligence-gathering operations, recent and historical, and compares them to their counterparts in China and Russia. Professor Zegart also discusses Silicon Valley’s crucial role in these operations and how they often conflict with the politics of the people running tech companies. Finally, Zegart discusses the crucial ability of the intelligence community to recruit the next generation of spies and analysts, some of whom may be her own students.

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[thomass]

Google vs CIA...; What's the difference?

[annbrucepineda]

All Hoover videos have helped me remain sane in the midst of deception and corruption during the last two years but Peter Robinson’s interviews hold a special place in my heart. This may be at least one of the best.

[fearsomefan]

The US intelligence community helped create the situation in Ukraine starting as early as 2014. They had plenty of time to predict this as they set it up to happen.

[glennmitchell]

So, intelligence successes go unnoticed because they are classified. I bet more intelligence failures are classified (and for longer periods) than intelligence successes. Thus, the lack of accountability.

When military commanders fail, they are relieved of command, often immediately. How often do intelligence officers get relieved?

[jameswaters]

We are dumb about everything. Except worrying about all the wrong stuff.

[rolandtours]

Silicon Valley has become incredibly "woke" and culturally closed-minded.

[davidcorsi]

As usual thanks to Peter for the great job he does. That said, his guest's response to his question about finding Bin Laden to me was troubling.
She used the excuse that Bin Laden did things differently after 9-11 than he did previously and "they all thought" he would follow his usual procedure of hiding in the mountains, away from his family.
She classifies his eventual demise as a "great success", one in which the entire intelligence community apparently had one narrow vision.
I take that to mean no one in the intelligence community took a contrarian view.
This mentality is the problem with so many "experts" today. The group think / herd mentality is one of our biggest problems, especially in this politically correct world run by bureaucrats.

[barunmitra]

Two very interesting points.
26.43 min : The tension between the tech giants and the government on issues of national security. But the pandemic showed how the tech giants voluntarily adopted the politucal narrative of the government. The tech giants colluded and censored to perpetuate the official line even without any legal mandate. But this aspect wasn't touched on.

35.05 min : The question of use and abuse of intelligence in a democracy is an old one. Perhaps the discussion needed to explore the political philosophy of power. When politics is primarily about power, and exercising power over people, then democratically elected or unelected autocrats, both share the propensity to abuse intelligence in order to try and hold on to power.

[ssruiimxwaeeayezbbttirvorg]

21:30 "they're not spying on your phone calls with your grandma" somehow i got doubts

[williamrutter]

Very interesting, but I don't think we have anything good to look back on, we have failed so badly, Afghanistan is bad, it was change of order, we lost a lot of hardware and our efforts were an effective waste.
Ukraine is worse, our intel might be good, but we have a sovereign country invaded by a vastly superior one, if our intelligence was good prevention would and should have been a goal, we now have a supremely armed well resourced county, completely estranged from us, with us looking odd about bio labs and tattooed Azov Battalion members, we the collective west will are now picking up the bill, especially the poor.
Russia the country we needed to bring China to account is now Allied with China, all our efforts in Ukraine do now, only prolong suffering.
As for China, big tech and multi nationals have a lot to answer for, out sourcing work to a communist dictatorship, shameful, we deserve everything that comes to us, we used the poor Chinese and ordinary people missed out on ordinary good jobs, so a lucky few could get rich.

[michaeljaquish]

Fascinating and informative interview. Amy Zegart is clearly one of the most informed individuals in America on intel issues and operations that span the gamete from Intel accumulation to Intel warfare. Sadly, such understanding is exceedingly rare. No democracy can stand unless the electorate is informed by truth and motivated to participate rationally in the system. Preparing voters to possess such qualities begins in elementary school with Civics classes that are either non-existent now days or so diluted by political influence they are pointless. For these reasons and more (that I address in my own book, THE FALL Of American Democracy) American democracy is not only on life support now, but is in severe decline.

[academyofchampions]

A job offer from google and the CIA. What is the difference?

For the record… Peter is a hero

[FoxtrotYouniform]

I love Peter's cordially manufactured exasperation at 3:52, moments like that really bring life to these incredible conversations.

[jaredspencer]

The opening/ending question is interesting. As someone who works in Silicon Valley, I would guess that one cultural element that deters graduating students from joining the government is the fear of getting stifled. In SV, generally, you can start having impact very quickly out of school. If you don't like how things are done, you go somewhere else (or start your own company). It's very fluid. My sense is that the government is much more rigid as a place to work. You don't get to change systems on the fly, or at all.

EDIT: I don't have a solution to this, and there are reasons why SV and DC work differently. I just want to offer a potential insight.

[Lp-zetg]

I have worked for different company/organization in North America and have seen how some government agencies (such as post office, Police Department, ministry of labor etc) dealt with matters/create issues.
Bureaucracy always always causing problems. Even when companies believe that they have the best management systems in the industry with open door policy.
But bureaucracy also survived in every part of our world.
That's why we are afraid of artificial intelligence.

[Do-You-See-What-I-See]

This woman could have been a great PR rep for the stasi but I believe her intentions are the right way forward

[nonyabeeswax]

Afghanistan is another hodabea. It was a 20 year long hodabea. In order to be politically correct and not offend Muslim people, knowledge of the facts have been refused. I remember a special I think PBS. The name may have been Tears Behind The Vale. There was a afghan woman pleading with all l her heart for America not to leave them. She practically screamed that the minute they leave, all afghan soldiers will revert right back but with far more military powers. This is consistent with hodabea

[jamesarchibald]

But not enough intelligence, to prevent the actions of Putin. That's real intelligence!

[zuhairyassin]

peter robinson i admire this guy extremely professional

[Wolly]

Here’s some common knowledge: You care about what your boss cares about.