Markets Weekly September 7, 2024

#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
Many Signs of Softening Labor Market
A Tale of Two Countries
U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund is a Bad Idea

00:00 - Intro
1:18 - Many Signs of Softening Labor Market
6:18 - A Tale of Two Countries
10:30 - U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund is a Bad Idea

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[davisbox]

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[LeaguerTexas]

Another great update. Thank you for putting these out each week. It’s nice to hear a level headed take on the market.

[mb-vjlr]

Thanks for another great update. I specifically appreciate the explanation of the proposed US sovereign wealth fund.

[faitavecamour]

I’m always looking forward to a Saturday morning because of the Market Weekly update. Thank you! 😊

[CyanScythe]

Another insightful update Joseph!

Regarding the Sovereign Wealth Fund, I know it's discussed in this video as the federal gov needs to raise money for the fund, but they actually already have a specially book-kept wealth fund set aside in the form of the social security trust fund. IIRC, it has about $1t remaining and is currently invested in "special purpose" government bonds, which don't trade openly, but rather are funded through the general budget through redemptions. I've been arguing for years that a way to fix Social Security's shortfall is to convert it from the current special purpose bonds yielding ~3% on average into a broadly invested sovereign wealth fund. It would take an act of congress, as currently the Social Security Act requires excess funds be invested in these special purpose bonds, but if the creation of a sovereign wealth fund already involves an act of congress, then it could be a multi-purpose legislation for putting Social Security on a path to to sustainability given the revenue shortfalls that exist currently.

It's the only path forward for Social Security without cutting benefits, raising taxes, or funding deficits from the general budget. (Although that last option defacto occurs already with the special bond redemptions to cover existing shortfalls).

[chrisp]

Joseph, my friend 😊! Thank you very much for yet another weekly banger! Much love and respect❤

[Anon-ndek]

Was looking forward to this. Thanks Joseph! Time for me to touch grass and come back October.

[JohnInvest]

Watching from Australia.
Thank you for covering Australia in this video. When do you see us cutting rates?

[jonathanlee]

👍Thanks. Your explanation of the proposed US sovereign wealth fund is very clear👍

[pp-]

00:06 US Labor Market is showing signs of deceleration
02:16 Hiring tensions are lowest ever, but firing intentions for tech show signs of white collar recession.
04:31 Labor market data indicates potential economic slowdown
06:48 Canada and Australia both facing challenges from migration, resource extraction and inflation
09:04 Canada and Australia's differing inflation rates due to interest rates and supply chain differences
11:13 Countries with surplus oil revenue invest in Sovereign wealth funds for future security
13:18 Sovereign wealth fund to invest strategically in resources and technology.
15:28 Concerns about circumventing Congress with a Sovereign wealth fund
Crafted by Merlin AI.

[tycn]

every Sunday: Hello my friends! from Australia

[GarrettGoodenough]

Yes finally an AUS update for us down under viewers 🎉

[masonsteed]

Michael Howell has been saying markets will climb the wall of worry. I think thats spot on. Unemployment is the current worry. If the market gets scared it could price this outcome. The question is if that worst case scenario came true what are the consequences and reactions?

[F_C...]

I'm increasingly convinced that we will look back at the 2020s as the lost decade.

[baarbacoa]

A sovereign wealth fund would also compete with private investors for assets. So you'd end up worth a de-facto transfer of assets from the private sector to the Federal government.

[billmuscroft]

Can you do a deeper explanation of Professor Hanke’s ideas that there is a strong link with a 2 to 3 year lag between M2 money creation and the inflation rate. What are the pros and cons of this theorem as the Fed seems little interested in the level of M2 money creation growth.

[annabellepeng]

Yield curve un-inverted, do you think the recession is coming? Thanks!

[gmil]

ZIRP is inevitable. The real question is the probability of a negative fed funds rate? Will J Powell hold strong to block this?

[kkiller]

I wonder how much more unwinding of the Yen carry trade will take place and whether or not that is the driving force behind the past week of stock market movements.

[The_Laid_Off_Life]

We have been living roaring let's see how things go :-)

Big money can be made and ultimately people that are not debt strapped be ready for some deals :-)