China Escalates on Taiwan; US-China Relations Get Worse | Quick Take | GZERO Media

The US & China now have their worst bilateral relationship since Tiananmen Square.

Ian' Bremmer's Quick Take:

Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here, and a happy summer Monday to you. I'm certainly feeling all warm and relaxed, and I hope you are too someplace fun. Lots to talk about that's been good for the Biden administration in the last week, probably the best week they've had since he's been elected. The passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS Act, unexpectedly strong job numbers which undermines all of the talk of recession. Kansas voting down the amendment on the abortion restriction. The assassination of the most wanted head the self-proclaimed emir of al-Qaida al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan, with no collateral damage, always good news and surprising when you see a bombing and there's actually no civilians that get killed. But of course, as someone who's focusing on foreign policy, the biggest story of the week, not one that is good news and that is the US-China relationship, the most important, most powerful two countries in the world, right now, with their worst bilateral relationship, frankly, since Tiananmen Square.

And I want to talk a little bit about what the implications for that are. It's a crisis on the back of the Pelosi visit with very significant escalation by the Chinese across the board, but it's also very carefully calculated escalation and that's pretty important. It means that we're very unlikely to see military confrontation or some form of potential war between the two countries, but it is also something that's likely to persist and become more problematic over time. The US position on Taiwan has been, maintain the existing status quo, political independence and economic sovereignty for Taiwan and provide whatever support is necessary to ensure that continues to be the case, as China becomes more powerful in the region. For China and Xi Jinping, it's been about reunification. Peaceful reunification, what they always talk about is their preference, but willing to open the possibility of it being directly coercive otherwise and of course, in Hong Kong, you have had coercive integration and the stripping away of a separate political system, China breaking its own agreement with the United Kingdom in terms of that handover as they felt like they had the power to do so.

For the last several months, the China-Taiwan relationship has trended slightly in favor of the US position, and the reason for that is because China's big strategic partner, Russia, overstretched with their invasion in Ukraine. That put the Chinese on the back foot. Specifically, it made America's Asian allies feel like they needed to integrate more strongly with NATO, with a global US set of military and cyber norms. That what happened in the trans-Atlantic also mattered for the trans-Pacific, and if the Japanese and the Australians and the South Koreans and the New Zealanders all feel like they need to pay more attention to global security and common Western norms and values and guidelines, that also means a stronger and more unified position vis-a-vis China.

China's military capabilities as they grow, and China's positions on the South China Sea to East China Sea, and of course, specifically Taiwan. China's seeing that more clear that they would be running serious risks by suddenly escalating towards an integrationist position in Taiwan, that they could potentially get a whole bunch of American allies to oppose the Chinese position in similar ways to how the G7+ has a very unified position, and will maintain one in my view on Russia. So that's made the Chinese government in the past five months, more cautious and itself more oriented towards the status quo, in other words, closer to the American position. Until the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi decided to make her trip to Taiwan, and this has shifted the ground on Taiwan towards the Chinese position. Biden did not want her to go, and Pelosi ultimately told the president that she'd be prepared to not make the trip, but only if Biden told her directly that was his strong view, and then she would make that public.

#QuickTake #USChina #Taiwan

[robcameron]

Interesting and thought-provoking analysis on why and how China responded as it did to the Pelosi visit. However, I wish you would put some of that careful analysis into the Hong Kong issue from the Chinese perspective. Personally, I believe that the national security and electoral reform laws enacted by Beijing are seriously a best-effort approach by Beijing to preserve one-country two-systems in a way that satisfied the Sino-British joint declaration and can survive beyond the 2047 deadline. The promise of the central government was to preserve the principles of the Hong Kong administration for 50 years as a separate system (two systems), while also charting a path towards national unity (one country). There was no guarantee that implementation details would not change. In response to the 2019 protests and riots, the central government really was very restrained: there were no tanks sent in, just laws passed that the HKSAR government could use to address the tumult. Frankly, I beleive that it is the British who violated their agreement with China by supporting separatist forces in 2019.

[twood]

One of my friend at work is from South Korea and from what he has told me, it sounds like the news we been hearing on South Korea is completely wrong. He said that the current South Korean government want to move closer to the US, but the reality does not allow it. First of all the people in South Korea may not see China as super friendly or anything, but they know pissing off the Chinese it will be game over for them. Secondly, the large corp like Samsung or LG and any other large corps will be against the government siding with the US and going after China. Whenever we talk about lets all join force and go after China, the reality is not so simple, other than Australia, no one want to go after China. The politicians draw a really nice picture and telling us this is whats happening, but the reality its not happening, its all a lie.

[randomcommenteronyoutube]

Oh no! The CCtinyPP is angry! Eat me, Xinnie the Pooh.

[tekannon]

Ian, I have only one thing to say on the Pelosi visit to Taiwan. I am not in international affairs but what I see being on the other side of the world from you in the USA is that if Pelosi would have backed down, it would have given China's leader an incalculable propaganda victory and bells would have been ringing across China and other dictatorship run countries across the world saying that the US was now in China's proverbial pocket. By not backing down---even when President Biden signalled a retreat from her position was what he would prefer---Pelosi, in my humble opinion has put America back on the map so-to-speak. To me, Pelosi's stubborness has shown to the world at large that America is now 100% its own master and no one is going to dictate policy to her. I would still be saying this if the Chinese had gone through with the invasion, because it's going to come to blows one day down the road, might as well happen now. It must grind your gears to hear armchair strategists like myself throw out these think-bombs, but I think history will regard Pelosi standing up to the CCP and President Xi as the moment when the momentum shifted back in the USA's favor and the vestiges of the failed Trump Administration and the disgraced former president were finally left to wither and die and be cast into the dustbin of history.

[stevedavis]

Fool learn your history Hong-Kong had no rights under British rule no voting, British imperial rule.

[ak]

On the plus side, what Pelosi did gave our military an excellent sense of what China has and its plans to take over Taiwan when it is ready. That is a huge plus for our planners and was worth the trip.

[judykinsman]

Now why did Pelosi do something she knew would be a problem? Seems like a spoiled politician & I’m ashamed. I want America to be better than that!

[tonytigerking]

So when a bully tells you that you cannot visit your friend, you should just obey the bully? That’s a good way to show the world how weak the U.S. has become.

[jeffreyhampton]

Is the CCP willing to paralyze a large portion of the global economy? The CEO of TSMC recently said a military invasion of Taiwan would effectively halt chip production. Assuming the CEO is accurate, does the CCP have the will to allow this to happen? Beyond will, does the CCP have the strength to tamp down an insurrection within China? Has anyone done a study on the global reliance of TSMC? I wonder how horrible, and how quickly horrible, things would get if TSMC stopped production today.

[hc-ff]

This is not a conflict in which the US has the slightest chance of prevailing, and it's also not a conflict in which it must engage as a matter of national interest or survival.
It's really up to Taiwan to decide how to manage China's stated policy of eventual annexation. There are steps it can take, and possibly there are options where that eventuality is postponed for a significant period of time.
One way or another, not much changes for the rest of the world. There will be a Chinese economic power pursuing its own interests, and there will be other economic powers doing precisely the same.

[kshen]

Like Hong Kong’s riot, the Pelosi’s visit accelerated the Chinese unification process, thanks American efforts.

[kshen]

America now has not only long term strategy, but also even no successful short term tactics.

[aronandreas]

From my point of view Usa finally did do something correctly with Taiwan.
The way you speak and talk make America be weak and no will of any standard in yourself.

[davedeonarain]

Just a feeling, but I wouldn't be surprised if the US relents on Taiwan in exchange for China's agreement to allow regime change in North Korea. That would be a good realpolitik play.

[SelfMadeHundredaire]

Sponsored by BofA...😏
So standard establishment take on current global issues.

[deankung]

Never waste a crises for a good cause.

[bob___]

Well, realism is just a marketing term for appeasement. So let's not rely too heavily on realism.

[American-In-Mykolaiv]

Thanks for a clear and level headed analysis! You are wrong about the GOP winning, think of Kansas, a GOP stronghold, defeating a GOP pro life issue.

[jeffgriffith]

Not sure how this doesn't just drive Chinese neighbours further into the arms of the west.

[wytchend]

Hi Ian, I have a question for you regarding Taiwan.
Why do they not declare independence publicly.
They have operated independently for almost 75 years. China has no influence on anything they do, yet they don't declare it?
More countries will support their democracy if they do, & frankly, they have to do it eventually, or they live eternally in groundhog day?
Maybe you would consider doing a video on this?
Thank you