Ian Explains: Why China’s era of high growth is over | GZERO World

Can China’s communist ideology and capitalist ambition sustain growth into the future?

Is China still on track to becoming the world’s largest economy? Ian Bremmer breaks down China’s great economic slowdown on Ian Explains.

Between 1978 and 2017, China averaged almost 10% year-over-year GDP growth. Decades of pro-investment policies transformed China from a closed, centrally-planned economy to an economic powerhouse that could rival the US.

But President Xi Jinping has been moving China away from the pro-investment policies of his predecessors and back to its socialist roots. In recent years, the government has cracked down on everything from technology to finance to entertainment to foreign investment.

At the same time, 3 years of zero-COVID policies sapped domestic spending and production. Decades of infrastructure investment have left local governments drowning in debt. China’s once-hot real estate market is in a massive slump. And youth unemployment is surging to record highs, threatening the very social pact that gives the Chinese Communist Party legitimacy in widespread support.

Can China’s communist ideology and capitalist ambition sustain growth into the future? Or does what goes up eventually have to come down?

#GZEROWorld #China #XiJinping

[MrBenzcdi]

A HT to the guys and girls in the media production team for the consistent quality of the ‘no-hype & zero-bluster’ visual story telling.

Love the pop art theme, too.

[Norwegian]

In order to get 1% GDP growth in China, they have to increase their debt (or invest) 4%.
Anyone doing the same by increasing their loans to invest in a property will understand that it will have to stop sooner than later.

[CharlesAlkhal]

I am pretty sure that Ian was advocating and arguing that China was the future with Belt and Road just 2 years ago.

How quick him and others have changed their tune!

[tekannon]

Ian, I know the following question will put me on your outlier list, but what can you offer as advice to China so that they get back on the road to prosperity? What would you do if you were in charge of getting the Chinese economy back to good health?

[vikingspud]

The middle-class protests at the end of COVID got a lot of foreign media attention. People that I talked to in China said that there were massive protests by average Chinese citizens in some of the less prosperous cities (2nd, 3rd tier). These people weren't holding up white sheets of paper like those seen on CNN, but lead pipes and baseball bats. My Chinese contacts say that the police backed down and there was a great rethink of the strategy. The CCP can keep middle and upper-classes in line with social scores, threats to derail careers, etc. But the "base" of everyday Chinese is what the gov't is most concerned about. The average citizen consumes only local media and is generally more supportive, but they have their limits too and the cadres know that if they lose the average Zhou, they are sunk.

[ak]

Although the growth was real, the percentages were misleading. Because China started with so little, all of the seemingly accelerating growth was because the numerator and denominator were so abnormal.

[scottprice]

No more low hanging fruit . Loyalists in economic posts that aren’t qualified . Debt and demographic issues . China the stumbling giant .

[ndomingo]

That wolf warrior stuff turned me off on that country completely

[joem]

A lot of people think this is a replay of Japan in the 80's but nothing can further from the truth. In the 80's because of persistent trade surplus in favour of Japan, it was forced by the US to strengthen the Yen via market intervention. Japan then followed by massive stimulous which fuelled a housing and stock bubble.
In the case of China, the US cannot force it to strengthen the RMB. It is in fact weakening and trade surplus is running at near record 800B/y in spite of recession in EU and low growth in the US. This support manufacturing sector.
The housing and stock bubble was pricked deliberately by Beijing govt, not inadvertently by the market. The govt is determine to stop all housing speculation, as painful as it may be.
And govt is refusing to massively stimulate as did Japan in the 80's. It seems to be prepared to accept lower growth to let former excesses be cleansed.

It's may be painful, but this look nothing like Japan.

[enisten]

The video quality is a bit low even at 1080p. Are you using a Chinese-made webcam?

[ScottPerkinsLCMT]

Too funny we were telling Ian Bremmer Chinas growth was over in 2019 and he kept saying they would be twice the U.S. economy....hes finally waking up and hes suppose to be an expert? what a joke

[michaelvainer]

False teeth of Chinese out !

[ElvinYeo-tg]

Stoll groeing st stste double from uss 😂

[michaelvainer]

Remember a was in past !

[kshen]

If China would have cough, USA will be right away sick. Mind your own business, Ian!

[setsanchew]

When china got high growth,
U ppl in the west called that an overheating eco.
Now china got slower growth,
Its gloom n doom!
No matter ehat u ppl say or predict,
Its just ur opinion.
China is a comand eco.
It v out smart all u nay sayers.

[Djidiu]

Keep praying 🇺🇸 because your decline is unavoidable.

[Capital_Ideas]

China has had the world's largest economy in real terms for years now. I would hope a global consultancy that offers many services to various classes of investor would know that.

[marxwasrightyall]

Degrowth or we all die. The earth can’t sustain the rich’s greed.