McCullough: This Bear Market Will Be Larger, More Drawn Out Than Most Have Ever Seen

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On The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discusses a conversation he had yesterday with one of our hedge fund clients. In particular, the data-driven risk management process which helped him successfully execute during the recent market drawdown.

“You’ve got to look forward to opportunities. When I am in a bear market, I want that top end of the range,” explains McCullough. “The minute you think that we’re not going to get there, we get there.”

“If there’s anything qualitative out there today that is more convincing that this is going to be a much larger and more drawn-out bear market than most of you have ever seen—it’s the behavior. It’s the performance, the panic, and the behavior.”

[doramason]

Lol he is gonna lead a fresh set of lemmings to the slaughter house.
This is Keith’s 4th time doing the same mistake! Can’t believe he can still find new subs...

[travissmith]

Top of the range is 4, 058? We are blowing past 4, 100 at the moment.

[ianpi]

His range has been surpassed. Am I the only one to see that?
What is a range anyway?
Is there a magic formula telling you when people stop buying/selling or just statistical based?

[joebagodonuts]

You are at the top end now. In fact, we are a little over.

[ask_why]

So, risk ranges are basically day trading?

[hotstufftalking]

Your right bro, this is the top of the range I got short at the close, the amateurs are all freaking out here, that’s a good sign

[mobetter]

bro caught short like after covid hit and boom. shawty caught short again oop.

[wisebear]

Sorry for mispellng: "retail trader"

[ashtruth]

SPX closed at 4130 way above his so called trading range. This clown keeps talking down on people. Meanwhile he's wrong on most of his calls. clown!

[parag]

There is going to be a rally till4188. I will short there. I dont want to short when AAPL and AMZN upgrades are coming.
Can someone elaborate how he figures out the range?
Thanks in advance.

[missj.]

So the worst is still to come with the NASDAQ and the S&P 500?

[wisebear]

Hope you didn't get your hair messed up when they ripped your head off on that one Keith!! You can Quant all you want, the market still is a reflection of human behaviour, which is irrational most of the time. Be cautoius, keep lots of dry powder and always remember that the marginal buyer in the market dictates it's direction. That would be the reail trader! The tail does wag the dog!!!