China & America Are on the Brink of a Massive Collapse

Demographic futurist Bradley Schurman joins us to explore a future where over-65s outnumber under-18s — and the changes society will have to face.

What We Discuss with Bradley:
0:00 - Demographics are a time bomb
21:22 - Russia will shatter
35:51 - America and immigration
43:27 - The US can weaponize demographic decline
53:03 - China's decline
1:04:04 - China admitting their population shrink
1:16:49 - China absorbing Taiwan won't save their population
1:23:58 - What will happen to China if their population shrinks too much

The Super Age, coined by demographic futurist Bradley Schurman — author of The Super Age: Decoding Our Demographic Destiny — is a future fast approaching: where those over 65 will outnumber our youth, driven by longer lifespans and declining birth rates. This seismic demographic shift presents both opportunities and challenges for society. Countries like Italy, Japan, and Germany have already reached the Super Age, and many others will follow suit. If we fail to prepare, we risk economic stagnation, increased isolation of at-risk populations, and the decline of rural communities — as witnessed in present-day Russia, exacerbated by its high-mortality invasion of Ukraine.

In this episode, Bradley Schurman joins us to shed light on the road ahead. Governments and businesses must be nimble, adapting to a dwindling workforce and the strains it may impose on social programs. Architects and designers, in turn, bear the responsibility of creating inclusive environments that cater to individuals of all ages. And let us not forget the marketers, who must keenly attend to the needs and desires of our older consumers. Through these proactive measures, we can harness the immense potential of the Super Age, a future defined by extended and healthier lives, intergenerational cooperation, and the exciting exploration of new markets. Listen, learn, and enjoy!

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#podcast #jhs #china #russia

[KHouse]

This is fascinating, and it's nice to hear two people have an intelligent, reasonable and decent conversation about things that matter. I needed this like I need water.

[fidesedquivide]

My son, an MDPhD and currently in his first year residency training to be a Cardiologist, has declared not to have children. If the best, the brightest, and the most hardworking young people don't want to have children, I see a darker future for humanity.

[MichaelRodriguez-urbu]

People still don’t get it. Middle class Americans cannot afford children end of story. Real estate costs are insane, child care costs are insane, cost of food is insane, buying a car has never been more expensive. Never mind the costs of their college education.

That leaves us with 3 choices.

Choice 1: Don’t have kids

Choice 2: Work 60-80 hours per week in either stressful corporate job or multiple blue collar jobs. This lifestyle will burn you the fuck out and you will never see your kids.

Choice 3: Cut your consumption/lifestyle back to a middle class family circa 1990. One car household, no iPhones, one family computer, one plane vacation every 5 years, eat out once every month, minimal entertainment.

How many people do you know would give up their modern lifestyles to have kids?

This is the main reason people aren’t having kids.

[Samson]

China's population is not 1.4 billion. Analysts outside China estimate its true population at closer to 900 million. There are two main reasons that China's population has been exaggerated. First, many Chinese -- especially those who are wealthy, shady or both -- have obtained multiple birth certificates in order to evade taxes, etc. Second, local governments, schools and various other organizations obtain funding based in part on their population. What these two reasons have a common is that they're both a function of corruption.

[aanchaallllllll]

0:51: 🌍 The global population is projected to stop growing by 2086, due to declining birth rates and increasing longevity.
09:23: 💥 The declining birth rates in Russia and the impact of the war in Ukraine on population growth.
18:21: 💔 The ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine is resulting in a high human cost, with an average of four hours between deaths, leading to a significant population decline in Russia and potential fragmentation of the country.
27:34: 📉 Russia is facing a severe population decline due to low birth rates, emigration, and a struggling economy.
35:34: 🌍 The decline in population in Russia may lead to demographic attrition being weaponized by the United States and its allies.
44:35: 🌍 The declining populations of Russia and China will have significant impacts on their economies and global power.
53:23: 🇨🇳 China's economy is becoming unstable due to demographic change and high youth unemployment.
1:04:11: 📉 China's declining birth rate and aging population is causing a dependency ratio imbalance, threatening the economy.
1:11:21: 🌍 China's challenges include rapid development, outward migration, and potential conflict with Taiwan.
1:20:28: 🌍 The changing population dynamics of countries like India, China, and Russia have significant geopolitical implications.
1:29:13: 🌍 The world has made incredible progress over the past century, but it requires continued investment to maintain and improve our current standards of living.
Recap by Tammy AI

[simonlevante]

I'm really sick of hosts/guests calling people racists if they don't agree with their open borders philosophies. All the while, misnaming it "immigration" which is essentially the conversation at around 36:00 and 37:00. If people want different immigration laws, change it. But don't break the laws that are on the books. Has nothing to do with race or irrational fears. Geez.

[idesofmarchUNIAEA]

7:00 i'm almost 64. My dad and my uncles warned us not to have any kids because what the world was turning into. They said there would be a nuclear exchange within 75 years of Hiroshima. It scared us. Three guys on either side of my family had no kids. We wiped out two family names. Those families were here for a millennia and now they're gone.

[almor]

With you until you mischaracterized everyone upset with too much immigration as race based. Immigration is wonderful up to a point but if a large number come from one particular place the character of the country changes. If a little of something is beneficial that doesnt mean a lot of it is better.

[mickwalkden]

Which is correct unstable or instable?

Instable is not a word. The root word is stable. The opposite is unstable. And the abstract noun for unstable is instability.

[ToTheMoon]

Informative, educational, and eye opening - most definitely worth listening to.
Thank you both for a great interview.
Best from Denmark, JL

[henryrambeau]

China, I think wants to push young people in doing manufacturing, but I don’t think of the young Chinese people want to do that kind of thing because there’s not making enough money that they want to make. They want to live a better life only trouble is everybody can’t do that.

[RichardFarmbrough]

4 hours is according to one ex-US-Marine, back in February. The Rouble has fallen 66% against the dollar, not 20%. Russia worked with the Nazis to invade Poland. Stalin only fought them at that time because they attacked, they were sending war supplies to Germany the day before. You can't really call the Soviet Union a "guard" against the Nazis, though it was very fortunate for the Allies that they were drawn into the war.

[treebrother]

lol, I also find it hilarious that anyone would take the numbers coming out of China seriously. As if the CCP would lose face admitting that they are anything but stellar. You know like the underwater tunnel collapse where only 238 people passed yet if one was to look at the released pics of football fields of cars that were pulled from the tunnel. Estimates put the numbers more around upwards of 10, 000.. The floods and a bridge collapsed, People perishing and instead of rushing in there with rescue crews, The priority was to put up barriers everywhere so it could be seen or reported. Buildings and infrastructure crumbling and collapsing regularly, Fire Hydrants that are fake, sinkholes regularly. I for well over a decade have had zero trust for US legacy media and certainly am not going to believe what the CCP puts out with their track record.

[valetudo]

One thing I want to mention - around 56:39 when Brad says China's average life expectancy is 81. Take that with a large grain of salt, considering its from their official statistics and is likely massaged for political reasons.

Also, women are not just "allowed" to retire at age 50-55 - they need to retire. Although many still work off the books.

The details of the youth unemployment are actually the opposite of what the guest says. It's not Chinese kids who were educated to work in factories that don't want to do service jobs - it's educated Chinese who went to school for engineering, accounting, etc - who don't want to work on factories. It's why they have factories that can't find workers yet still have high youth unemployment.

To be fair about the car thing - Chinese cars, especially electric ones, are very popular in China and are making inroads in Europe and other places (because they're subsidized by the gov to be cheaper). However, most people would for sure prefer a foreign made electric car if cost wasn't an issue

[MickeyGrant]

An amazing show. I lived in Taiwan for 3 years and studied at Hwa Gang, the college of Chinese culture. I worked making films in China for over 10 years starting in 1984 (I speak Mandarin) and when corruption becaoming very bad, I then started working in Vietnam. I became a part of the Dutch film business (I'd deffinitely advise no one ro do that as the Dutch think they know everything) in 1990 for 5 years. Jordan and his guest have really nailed everything related to the Demographics of the World, not just China, Russia and America. This discussion should be seen by every intellectual in America. One of the most major problems today is that is that there is so much crap by idiots that it's hard for most folks to find something like this. Guys, I really appreciate what you're doing. Someone like Bill Maher should have both of you on his show, but his ego would probably run from you.

[lyonellaverde]

In a weird sort of way the market will reassert itself, even to demographics. After the horrors of the Black Death in the 1300s, the working-age population that survived was able to command better wages and condition. Traditional medieval serfdom took a serious hit. As working-age populations continue to decline, those who remain should have more leverage.

The wild card is AI. If almost all human labor becomes replaceable, and human labor does not have leverage, there will be massive social instability, to say the least.

[pabsmanhere]

It's bizzare to me that so many people still assume immigration from every place is equivalent...

[untethered]

This conversation about the cost of raising kids is so weird to me. I make about $66K a year with 4 kids and my wife is a homemaker. We're not rich but we're not really struggling, either. We also live in a rural area, though. Maybe that's the difference? Rural vs. city?

I'm also kind of shocked at the total disconnect between the beginning of the conversation about why people are having so few children because they make so little money and the middle of the conversation about how a low population means a high cost of labor which is impacting Russia and China's ability to churn out a high GDP. Just to put this into perspective: Low cost of labor = low wages for employees = low birth rates = population decline. On the flip side: High cost of labor = higher wages = better standard of living = more children = population growth.

Low labor costs aren't a "good thing".

[petercannova]

The USSR technical education system was OUTSTANDING
they would take the top qualified people and PUT them in a 7-year apprenticeship program
this was SHUTDOWN when the USSR collapsed -- the youngest trained people are now in their 50s

[organizer]

The truth is that children need attention, care, health care, physical space, education, etc and it is not fair to bring a child into a most situations in US.