101: Fiat Markets with Lyn Alden

In this epsisode Saifedean talks to economist and investor Lyn Alden about her views on the global macoeconomy. They start by discussing recent market turbulence in light of the Federal Reserve’s plans to tighten monetary policy, whether these plans are realisable, and what this will mean for consumer price inflation and the stock market. They then move on to a discussion of Lyn’s portfolio, her reasons for allocation across particular industries, and why she holds shares in silver mining companies. In the Q&A Lyn answers questions about whether we can trust the Federal Reserve and how she uses the Austrian School economic framework to inform her thinking on investment.

00:00 Introducing Lyn Alden
02:22 The Fed’s Announcement Of Tightening Crashing The Market
05:55 Keynesian’s Misconceptions About The Economy
07:30 Why Is Inflation Running So High?
12:13 Is the Industrial Metal Market Distorted By Monetary Policies?
17:30 Can The FED Start Tapering?
26:22 How Narratives Are Used To Battle Inflation
28:30 Manipulating The CPI Numbers
32:30 Who Benefits On A Fiat Standard?
35:30 Demand For The US Dollar Increasing In The 20th Century
38:30 The Formation Of The Petro-Dollar System
43:12 Influence Of A Strong Currency
46:00 Why The Foreign Exchange System Is Broken
47:50 Entrenching The Dollar Into other Countries
49:52 The Destruction Of The Fiat Financial Industry
55:00 How Capital Consumption And Monetary Manipulation Influences A Country
01:00:50 Assets During Inflationary vs Disinflationary Periods
01:03:03 What’s In Lyn Alden’s Investment Portfolio?
01:10:05 In What Assets To Invest During Inflationary Times
01:14:23 The Case Of Silver Getting Demonetised
01:21:55 Can We Still Trust The FED?
01:25:00 What Can Bitcoin Be Used For And What’s Happening With DeFi?
01:28:50 Carbon As A Commodity And It’s Market
01:31:25 Fiscal Policie’s Pressures On Inflation
01:35:00 Does Lyn See Any Fallacies Within The Austrian School?

Lyn on Twitter:

Lyn’s 2020 article 3 Reasons I’m Investing in Bitcoin:

Lyn’s January 2022 Newsletter The Capital Sponge for a discussion of recent developments in the US stock market with historical context (includes a breakdown of her model portfolio):

A Tiger by the Tail by F.A. Hayek for a discussion of the Keynesian legacy of inflation:

Gold Wars by Ferdinand Lips for an account of Switerland’s abandonment of the gold standard:

The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy by William Strauss and Neil Howe:

America’s Great Depression by Murray N. Rothbard. See pages 3-80 for Rothbard’s explanation of Austrian Business Cycle Theory:

Lyn’s last appearance on The Bitcoin Standard Podcast in May 2022:

Lyn’s critique of Nassim Taleb’s Bitcoin Black Paper:

Saifedean’s first book, The Bitcoin Standard:

Saifedean’s second book, The Fiat Standard:

[natcowherd]

Bout to be listening to this on repeat for the next couple of days..

[ickoa.]

Lyn is such a Legend - she is so smart and open minded person

[richardhubbard]

2 of my favorite humans having a chat about finance. Perfect!

[Jess-qrox]

Great conversation, I truly enjoy learning for free from thinkers like yourself and Lyn. Keep em coming!

[rdouma]

An absolute pleasure, as always. Two great minds. Thanks for sharing.

[carbonfibercrypto]

Two brilliant minds coming together. The Internet isn't all bad after all..

[ABC]

Great interview and audience questions

[tacophan]

Lyn is great. Saif is mostly extended word-salad rants. More Lyn please.

[BlockchainShango]

Great video as always!

It’s always great to hear Lyn’s take on trends. Please keep up the great work, Miss!

Take care, everyone! ✌🏾

[swanson_]

Dam that last question about Austrian economics was amazing.

[samandrastek]

Brilliant, brilliant breakdown(s). I would enjoy many more podcasts like this one, in particular juxtaposing how things ‘work’ (or don’t work) today under Keynesianism/MMT vs how they might work in an Austrian economy. Question at 1:39:00 digs into this—I think a problem I run into is having an understanding of Austrian tenets, but not fully understanding the (jerry-rigged & oftentimes hidden) scaffolding that supports the current regime. Maybe a lesson plan explaining the steel man of Keynesianism and then why it doesn’t work (or examples of why it isn’t working). I know it was touched on early on in the episode around 39:00, but I would really appreciation a deeper exploration of the Triffin Dilemma.

[ggrthemostgodless]

Lyn was incredibly patient with all his venting, still answered professionally.

People seem to have issues with intellectual elites, but seem just fine with financial elites or huge disparities in the economic front, that is just the market, etc etc...I wonder why people don't apply that mentality to the intellectual elites too?? I mean, they are also just a product of the market, no?

[dr.baloghmaria]

Thanks for the video mate < The prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin have collapsed in recent Days. It's coming down more but it'll come backup no one can predict a bear market on one dip. YouTubers need to stop asking that question I'm tired of hearing it. Every time the market drops the headlines, the bull run over or are we officially in a bear market, That shit played out more emphasis should be put into trading, since it is way profitable than holding., Coach Terry Maxcy has been doing a great job reviewing all chart, trade and techniques on BTC which has enhance the growth of my portfolio to 12.5btc lately People buy good projects and hold that's the secret to big money in cryptos…...

[normankoo]

Lyn, I hope that your cough improves. Take Care!

[derek.seaborn]

Saif, the "macro strategy" you described of soy and bug-burger rations, 30 minutes of grocery time, CBDC's, etc., sounds like the dystopia of an established dystopia. I fucking hope not. Plenty of grass-fed meat and certain vegetables is the only diet that doesn't cause me horrible arthritis pain. If I don't die in this scenario, I'll have no choice but to be jacked up on opiates.

[jamesmorton]

tame volitility, transfere tax on trades
96% tax on profits
COL salary increases
tax breaks for Made In America

and burn the FIRE sector

[lukitas]

It’s hilarious that Nasim talks about “skin in the game” but doesn’t provide his portfolio lmao

[Wendy-hottakes]

Bitcoin is clearly not a better investment than gold.

[Milestonemonger]

"Buy The Dip"
-- Elon Musk

[Satssetyoufree]

Give it a rest with your 'boiling the oceans' line, you'll lose credibility.