Multipolarity: Special Edition. Samo Burja on the 21st Century's Three Mega-Trends

This week, we're celebrating our recent tenth show with a double-header.

Breaking out of the usual format, we have an interview with a thought leader, plus a special listener Q&A with Ladsie & Boysie themselves, Andrew Collingwood and Philip Pilkington, featuring another very unusual guest.

Today is part one of that double-header.

We're delighted to welcome Samo Burja to the pod.

Samo is a sociologist who has risen to prominence on the analyst scene in the past few years, mainly via his popular and influential Substack.

A fellow at the The Long Now Foundation, and senior research fellow at Foresight Institute, his Bismarck Analysis consultancy deals in the geopolitics, technology, demographic and cultural trends that will define the 21st century. He analyses at the scale of 'mega-trends', and has contributed a range of useful coinages to the lexicon, from "Intellectual Dark Matter", to "Live And Dead Players".

Naturally, the lads have plenty to dig into - from China's deliberately backwards agricultural policy, to the diplomatic fulcrum that might be breaking Europe away from the US.

[alexg]

Underrated pod, not getting enough attention

[gangfang]

Please keep making these videos! I found so much depth in the discussion and the interviewer asked great questions and did a fantastic job hosting. I definitely see this channel as rare signals surrounded by much information noises these days.

[stefaneekenulv]

I am Samo fan-boy

One of the sharpest knives in the world

Love it!

[thelemurishere]

Props to Samo for pointing out the invidiousness of coal burning toward the end. Burn the coal, pay the toll.

[chrisconnor]

This was intense. I have followed Samo for years, but here he was talking in this interview. Im not going to lie, perhaps because of Samo’s deadpan delivery, I rewound this conversation multiple times to fully integrate what I was hearing.

I have never come across a contemporary political or international relations theorist who so explicitly mirrors my views. Even so, I have many questions for Samo regarding this topic, but by and large, this was illuminating… Samo I cherish you, if I had one position of disagreement it might be on AI proliferation and western dominance in the manufacturing of the required systems for it, I would love to hear you expand more on AI.

I am skeptical, of openai and the seeming confluence of thought leaders around the inevitable singularity. I think we may be further away. Samo, I would love to hear what you think. Whenever i listen it is like you speak for me but with infinitely more ability

[rafaellino]

Interesting but i feel like this reminds me a podcast i listened to recently about the situation in Brazil. Similar collection of "brilliant analysts" all with as little actual knowledge of the country as the average Reddit commenter. I think Samo seems like an OK guy but he is making giant generalisations, doesn't seem to know the detail as much. Seems like a decent person but would I trust this analysis ? Absolutely not, seems like a load of tosh to me... The Idea that we would somehow be able to stop china growing in 1999 jeez. No one thought of that at the time. The neoliberals were out there telling everyone that China producing lower tier goods was great for the global economy and it would unleash the American workforce to produce only higher tier products where China "wouldn't be able to compete", making everyone richer! And for a time, everyone believed them.

[gordonkent]

Stand to be corrected but I think at 42:44 Samo says "actuarially greying" and that the most important macro-trend is whilst countries are becoming richer, there is a gradual reduction in the ratio of "productive citizens" vis-a-vis dependants - particularly post demographic-dividend. Essentially, tfr rates are down, the global labour force will diminish and the price of labour will correspondingly increase.

[blaawan]

@33 min the mention of only five possible landing site in taiwan is not valid anymore. you are assuming d-day style assult up the beach. new tech like hovercrafts helicopters means landing can happen almost anywhere. but this old fashion view on military unification of taiwan is now old school.

[rafaellino]

Aaah hes great but kind of sounds like an AI Voice ? Not a Lot of emphasis or volume change