Virgin Galactic Is On Its Deathbed

Richard Branson's space tourism company Virgin Galactic went public by merging with a SPAC to great fanfare in 2019. Almost 5 years later the company appears to be on the brink of bankruptcy. In this video we take a deep dive into the rise and fall of Virgin Galactic and explore whether or not space tourism will ever be economically viable.



#Wallstreetmillennial #spcestock

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0:00 - 1:29 Intro
1:30 - 2:23 The bull case
2:24 - 4:09 Operating history
4:10 - 6:07 Low launch frequency
6:08 - 9:32 Delta class pipe dream
9:33 Demand

[uselessDM]

200k potential customers with probably no repeat business doesn't seem endless at all.

[Nswix]

Tbf this is how 90% of Virgin companies end... They slap the logo on any company they can and the ones that manage to takeoff pay for the ones that don't.

[dosmastrify]

Virgin galactic has been on its deathbed claiming "I'm not dead. I'm getting better" for a year now. Maybe more

[mikedavis]

It was a pipedream from day 1, it's a miracle that it's lasted this long

[tomshen]

Chamath = A snake oil salesman that promotes terrible, impossible, or unachievable businesses marketed as world changing and profitable.

[epicchk]

Let's skip all the testing and safty part.
Look how well this turned out for Ocean Gate

[fourteenfour]

Their problem is that UP is not a destination. Space tourism implies you are going somewhere so until private resort stations are a thing there is no where to go outside the ISS but that is highly restricted and also beyond the range of the Virgin craft.

[pablot]

WOW - Operating Expenses of $1, 000, 000+ per day!?!

While the New Mexico taxpayers were deceived into paying $300, 000, 000+ to build the SpacePort.

Politicians keep deluding themselves into thinking they are clever investors, then throwing public $$ into speculative nonsense - it should be illegal for governments to give massive $$gifts to private companies.

If ideas are valid, then private investment will follow. Unless the profits are paid to the taxpaying citizens, then get the billionaires to pay for their own SpacePorts, sports stadiums, etc.

[timothybaker]

I’m sure those billionaires who got crushed down at the Titanic didn’t help sales either.

[EmperorDionx]

Virgin Galatics business model didn't pass the straight face test with me even the first time I heard it

[TheDreadnoughtgames]

The real problem for me is that it’s not actual real space you go to… it’s just very very high up. Orbital flights are “real” space, and if you can afford $600k, you could probably afford to fly with a proper space company that will take you orbital…

[fnorgen]

Virgin galactic started off somewhat promising very early on. The original idea was to make the suborbital spaceplane as simple as possible, with no fancy electronics and an extremely simple hybrid rocket engine, with a conservative mission profile which shouldn't require much heat shielding. On paper there was very little that could go wrong, so they could get a proof of concept off the ground quickly. It's just that when they got to testing, the basic design wasn't nearly as durable as expected. Critically, the designer of the airframe is famous for his distaste of fly-by-wire systems and computers, preferring simple mechanical linkages and full manual control. Getting that to work in a spaceplane was an impressive feat in its own right, but it also meant they NEEDED a human test pilot for every single flight test. It made bulk endurance testing way more dangerous, and by extent, slower and costlier.
The SPAC cash injection was their final opportunity to start regular flights and actually make some money. But off course, the only reason they had to merge with a freaking SPAC was because any serious investor who looked too hard at their situation would notice that Virgin galactic was never going to make much money. Their design wasn't working out, and their tech had fallen behind.
Now the window of opportunity for suborbital space tourism is closing, and Blue origin's New Shepard rocket can offer the same style of suborbital flights on a vehicle which appears a lot less janky. (It turned out that landing and reusing conventional vertical rocket boosters was actually a practical solution.) They even fly a bit higher than VG! Meanwhile, true orbital space tourism is becoming ever more affordable for the ultra rich, which makes these little suborbital hops look rather poverty spec in comparison. Especially when you start to look at the cost per minute of microgravity, a ride with Virgin Galactic now looks like a poor value even if you could easily afford it.

[jergervasi]

I’m sure the Titan Submersible didn’t help stoke up those millionaire adventurers.

[PerfectInterview]

The space tourism industry will collapse after the first fatal accident. And such an accident is inevitable. Even a mishap where no one dies but lives are threatened will kill it.

[patpatpat]

I’ve always questioned the business model of a $250, 000 carnival ride.

[benjamineprg]

It's essential to conduct thorough research, consider the long-term outlook of the companies, and diversify your investments to manage risk effectively.

[midlander]

20 years of very expensive PR. Zero delivery.

[codelessunlimited]

The first ticket was only worth the kitchen 10 years ago.
Now the ticket price is the average inflated house in Bay Area.

[phoebehill]

When you lose $1 million a day, you are bankrupt — you just haven’t declared it yet

[cris]

Richard Branson: "Help me Chamath, you're my only hope!"
Chamath Palihapitiya: "No."