Is it Time to Buy the Dip? | NIFTY-50 Crash | Indraanil Guha Hindi

IS IT TIME TO BUY THE DIP? [in HINDI] | NIFTY-50 CRASH

Even as the NIFTY grapples with one of the worst bouts of volatility in many years, it’s instructive to note that I had laid down on this very channel three clear conditions that must be fully met before a sizeable market crash can materialize. And I did so NOT today, but nearly 9 months back in the following video that was published back on 6-Apr-24:

The first out of these three conditions (Fed starting rate cuts) was fulfilled on 18-Sep-24. The second (“Un-inversion” of 3M-10Y Yield Curve) was fulfilled last month (on 13-Dec-24 to be precise). And that leaves just one last condition (Balance of the RRP going down to zero) yet to be fulfilled, and even this one is NOT very far from being met! It’s NOT a coincidence that equity markets are becoming increasingly jittery just as these conditions are getting fulfilled one by one. And this brings us to a very important question – now that the pre-requisite conditions for a market crash to materialize are all met, or is on the verge of being met, should we assume that a large market correction is imminent now?

Also, is the final melt-up in stocks that typically plays before the onset of every recession still on the cards? Or is this something that is unlikely to be witnessed in this business cycle?

Last but NOT the least, now that this correction has already played out for over 3 months, how close are we from the bottom and is it possibly now the right time to buy this dip?

These are the key questions whose answers I explore in this episode. So do watch this video till the end.

You can also watch this video in English. The English version of this video is available at:

Also watch my recent 2-part series, in which I explored the key drivers of the current bout of volatility in the NIFTY. Part 1 of the 2-part series is available at:

Part 2 of the 2-part series is available at:

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Chapters:
00:00 Teaser
01:19 Introduction and Happy New Year!
02:44 Recap of NIFTY's trend since Sep-24
05:47 3 broad questions/concerns to be addressed in this video
08:16 Overview of 3 conditions to be met before a market crash can materialize
10:04 Relationship between US 10-Y Bond Yields and MOVE Index
12:07 Relationship between MOVE Index and NIFTY-50
15:38 Parallels with late-2021 / early-2022
19:19 What will mark the end of this correction?
21:46 Potential roadmap for “melt-up” to materialize
24:46 Is a crash imminent now?
26:55 Is a “melt-up” still on the cards?
27:56 Is it time to buy the dip?
28:58 Most potent risk to NIFTY right now?
32:28 Introduction to AlphaSIP® - Our proprietary “rules-based” investment approach

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[IndraanilGuha]

About 9 months back, I had laid down on this channel three clear conditions that must be fully met before a sizeable market crash can materialize. These conditions started to get fulfilled from Sept-24 onwards, and so far, two out of three conditions have been fully met, and even the third one is very close to being met. And it can’t be mere coincidence that equity markets have become increasingly volatile just as these conditions are getting fulfilled one by one. And this brings us to a very important question – now that the pre-requisite conditions for a market crash to materialize are all met, or is on the verge of being met, should we assume that a large market correction is imminent now?

Also, is the final melt-up in stocks that typically plays before the onset of every recession still on the cards? Last but NOT the least, now that this correction has already played out for over 3 months, how close are we from the bottom and is it possibly now the right time to buy this dip? These are the key questions whose answers I explore in this episode. So do watch this video till the end.

[vinnu_in]

One can / should skip first 13 minutes

[NA-cxzm]

I appreciate your dedication to educating your viewers with such high quality analysis which is not found anywhere. I listened to both the english and Hindi version and appreciate your commitment towards your viewers.

[samirpanda]

बहुत ही ज्ञानवर्धक जानकारी मिला है आपके इस वीडियो के माध्यम से. हिन्दी में वीडियो बनाने कि हमारे अनुरोध रक्षा करने की शुक्रिया !!

[S.Kumar-]

This is a kind of data interpretation video that a investor like me seeks the most

[chuk]

Sir your hindi is also very sweet.
Please keep up the great work

[sachinmungekar-nl]

Superb
You were the first person to talk on volatility even before market start showing signs

You are not as flashy as other fin influencers but your content seems good well studied.

All the best for your channel and carry on with good work you are doing.

[Sachin-]

Wow...hindi me majja aa gaya...thank u thank u sooo much sirjee, ,🙏🙏🙏

[debabratachoudhury]

Yes, sometimes reiteration is necessary because insaan ki yaadast kamjor hoti hain... Great effort 🙏

[amangoyal]

All Predictive Theories to
Self satisfy .... Rather then making so many Permutations and Combinations, One should focus on Companies with Solid Fundamentals and Solid Growth Potential Bcz Stock Price is the Slave to Earning ...And these stocks will be the 1sr to bounce back even if they dip with market correction...

[suryakantsavalikar]

Thanks for your FIRST HINDI clip on Stock Market sir ji 🎉👍👍👍.

[marketview]

Almost 13.5 percent corrected low .i hope now meltup slowly possible .
But upto which levels ctoss ATH ?

[rajansir]

Great video 🎉🎉. Watched both videos in english as well in hindi also ❤❤. Keeps going 🎉🎉🎉🎉

[Indiaalwaysfirst]

I should say that i have seen many chartists and market experts but indranil sir is best in business.. I understood everything like a student and my concepts were so clear that i felt confident.. 🙏🙏thanks sir.. All the best🙏

[samirkumargupta]

Kudos to you and your family and also your team.

[wilsonjoseph]

Sir, great, keep it up, hats off, good analysis and i have been in this market for the last 15 years and your analysis is great. God bless you!

[adityapr.]

This kind of knowledge on YouTube is priceless. Hats off to the efforts 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻

[nagadhiprabhanjankumar]

Thank you very much for updates.Great work

[shock-t]

Your videos did help me do asset re-allocation as per nifty PE. Right now, my portfolio is still sitting at all time high due to this. 🤑

[Tanuja-bdop]

I really appreciate this informative and excellent video . Thanks a lot .