Iowa Caucus Predictions | QT Politics

Who will win the Iowa Caucus? In this video, I'll give you my Iowa Caucus predictions, and show a full range of likely outcomes.

The first-in-the nation contest for the 2020 election democratic primary begins with the Iowa Caucus, set to begin at 7PM on February 3rd, 2020.

So, who will win? The short answer is Bernie Sanders. RCP's Iowa tracker has Sanders leading with 24.2 points, that's more than 3 points ahead of Joe Biden. FiveThirtyEight's averages show Sanders with a more modest lead of less than a point. 270 to Win shows Sanders up by nearly 4 points.

No matter which polls aggregator you trust most, Sanders is clearly leading in the polling, and is therefore the most likely to win the most pledged delegates.

So, Sanders is the short answer. But there's also a long answer.

In this video, I'll talk about the exact number of delegates each candidate is likely to scoop up. I'll show the most likely scenario given various polling aggregations, I'll generate a best and worst case scenario projection for each of the candidates, and I'll give you my definitive prediction of the how many pledged delegates each candidate wins in Iowa.

Hopefully this more extended breakdown will serve you as a more robust Iowa Predictions video, going well beyond the simple question:

Who will win?

#2020election
#politics
#Iowa

Note: In advance of the Iowa Caucuses, polls are released frequently, often multiple polls daily. To stay up to date on the most recent polling in Iowa, and the polls released by the polling aggregators mentioned in this video, check out the RCP, FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin websites:

Question Time features video essays about politics, history and culture, with a particular focus on the United States of America. Topics are inspired by events and trends in news and current affairs, and attempt to provide context for a robust discussion in the comments section. All opinions presented in videos are my own, but yours matter, too. Your thoughts are highly valued, even when you don't agree. At the heart of every vibrant democracy are ordinary people, engaged in debate over policy and values.

Sources for this video:

[eyuin]

Bernie may be #1 in the polls, but John Delaney is #0.

[QTP]

Very small point, but what do you guys think of the new graphics? In particular, the new candidate cards...I was getting sick of the old ones.

[ethandavies]

I think Bernie or Biden, all depends on if Biden can quietly go through the state without insulting everyone. So a solid win for Bernie.

[fredman]

Delaney's got this in the bag! Delaney 2020

[TheBrothersBlue]

Bernie: 40
Pete: 1
Warren: 0
Biden: Sir, this is a Wendy's

[JH-fbmp]

Good God
The production of these videos is so high quality and professional, yet they still feel laid back and authentic. I hope this channel grows

[ultimasys]

All the headlines will be like "Biden wins second in Iowa, with Buttigieg in a strong third"

[YesToCookies]

It all depends on the turnout. Bernie need a really high turnout of voters in order to, not only win, but win overwhelmingly.

[Gamer-zqeb]

I wish you incorporated the polling data of second-choice votes for each candidate's voters. It probably would've gave us a better insight.

[jeroen]

I think a lot of Warren supporters will end up voting Sanders instead.

[ARandomDonut]

I don't know how easy it is for you, but having a new intro with different clips from 2020 would be kinda epic.

[levijohansen]

The 15% threshold is applied per voting site. Warren is likely to get more than 15% at some sites, maybe even half the sites.

[InfernoBlade]

If Bernie wins first three states he could win big in Super Tuesday

[georgetiddy]

Yang is gonna shock the world on February 3rd

[WitchVulgar]

Considering the makeup and enthusiasm of the Yang Gang, I suspect an outsized showing for Andrew Yang. I don't know if he'll get any delegates, but a boy can hope

[acasta]

Sanders: 0
Biden: 0
Buttigieg: 0
Warren: 0
*ＪＥＢ: 41*

[SamuriLemonX]

Thank you for helping a Brit understand the American political process and keeping me updated

[pete]

Hey man. Just wanna say I’m a politics teacher in the UK and these videos are so useful for US politics!

[nobody]

I am on Yang’s team. I don’t believe he’ll win, but I do believe he will do much better than people expect.

[tomimpala]

4:10 I'm actually really nervous E Warren supporters all go to Pete and Biden and push Bernie down.