FED ALERT: Recession Confirmed and What It Means for Housing

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Dan Frio
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[jackwilliams]

Buying and selling is easy. Tough is to hold quality stocks. There are few gems in the world who held their stocks(after deep research) for years and sometimes decades. They are the most successful investor's

[arkcorps]

We are officially in a recession we won’t see the effects for a while though people still haven’t taken notice

[WDFH]

Please talk about how and where to get a HELCO after a forbearance so home owners can tap that equity before the crash. Thx!

[SuperSadel]

Why do you not want prices to drop to pre covid prices? Or at least close to it. These prices were all artificially stimulated by what happened with covid.

[CaptainCaveman]

2019 pricing is already baked in by mid 2023 imo. Stocks and Crypto have already given back their "pandenic gains". Autos and homes are next.

[UrbanBDKNY]

The real question is what happens to rates and the housing market when the feds continue to raise rates and we are in a recession during high times of inflation when the feds and government likely don’t bail anyone out this time

Looking for answers for each individual situation (ie rates during recession or housing during recession individually) with out factoring in the others is not the way to go

[Lex]

Let's talk about what happens to CREDIT. The banks stop lending credit lines get reduced from HELOCs to Credit Cards

[nickbaker]

Rate hikes means less spending, less spending means job loss, business can't support less spending so they cut jobs. Jobs lost can't pay mortgage, even more housing supply. Investors which drove the market up in the first place are out of the market, so its just normal buyers now that can't afford the prices of homes coupled with the interest rates. We are in for a bloodbath, there is no stagnation going to occur. Jerome Powell literally said do not buy a house 2022 and he's the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

[Muffergorillatag]

During inflation and rate hikes yeah the housing market has to level off to normal down it will go

[chageyu]

uh...this is 2007-2009 all over again. housing crash is not instant. that 2007 crash started. and it bottomed out around 2011...so yeah. in my market. from march to june, our inventory jumped 79% and it will continue to go up, 3 out of 10 home are purchased by big investors in most of the hot markets in USA like boise/atl/vegas/phoenix etc. they will liquidate as most of these area rental has flatten with no gains. airbnb investors will liquidate as many cities are putting up new laws to restrict the amount per city. in my city, currently there are 12, 000 and the new law passed only allowing about 2400 !! foreclosure is backlogged and have started. i think 1.6 million NEW homes are slated to come to market as we speak. buyers are not stupid. they see price drop, most will wait in side line in a reverse FOMO. now they are fearing paying too much for the house cause maybe it will drop more next month. 12% of top 500 companies are zombie companies and they will all bankrupt even with current interest rate, most big company already have hiring freeze. it will trickle. and oh, did i mention gas price and food price yet? that was not even part of the equation in 2007 so...yeah, my investors and i are sitting waiting on the sideline see this slow motion crash and hope to make bank like we did in 2011. but what do i know, this is youtube and everyone is entitled to their opinion, right or wrong.

[jafmex]

Fed adamant will raise rates Biden policy escalate food and gas!

[gentrybrown]

You are forgetting the power of several white collar workers losing their jobs. Prices certainly come down at least 10-20% for real estate.

[yonceydelatorre]

A large market correction is coming, it will start with the luxury higher priced homes. Its already happening and those luxury homes will have the largest price decreases that will then give competition to the cheaper homes and all in all will help bring down the all values eventually. This is solely based on the interest rates rising and folks not being able to qualify for those large jumbo loans now, cheap money is long gone. So the next driving force is the recession that we all know we are in and will continue and grow, it will be a long slow recession. I am talking up to at least 3 years worth. You cannot pump that much fake money in the economy and be in a recession for a year only! Now the question this recession turn the correction into a crash....yes it will!
It will just take some time. Once again, this is due to all the free stimulus money still floating around...PPP loans, Moratoriums no rent or mortgage for years then forgiven and added to the back of the loan, Free stimulus checks and on and on...then add all the ATM style home owners that did cash out refi's due to their property values doubling, that is a lot of free money too just pumped out of no where turned into tax free dirt cheap leveraged cash!
A lot people do not realize that. I know it sounds crazy but the Average Family in the US has the largest amount in cash funds in their savings account then they've ever had. Once this free money is dried up and the recession continues....will be the time of reckoning! It will be long and again you cannot pump that volume amount of money for so many years in all sectors of the economy and think it will all correct in 12 months! NO WAY JOSE!

[arielcolon]

It’s bad if your not ready with the mula

[coolartps]

With this clown in office and running the show a recession is very likely and house prices will come down because many can't afford do to Budget cuts and if layoffs happen you can kiss the good housing market goodbye. It will crash.

[mpb]

The Fed does not care about a mild technical recession. They care about entrenched inflation. Rates will go up until employment breaks.

[mattmatthews]

Of course the rates will fall once I have already closed. 🤦‍♂️

[DearSX]

Hopefully new build inventories goes up a bit and more opportunities for median income buyers emerge. Maybe we need policies that help out those left behind.

[CaptainHookhatesBooks]

In escrow with rate locked in 5%. Not even scared for this "crash" thst everyone is praying for. Sideways market then slowly back up. Housing will only cool won't crash.

[shadowfourgolf]

New to your channel. Thanks. I have to say prices are more likely to crash, your analysis is not taking into consideration exogenous factors. Unlike the last 5-6 cycles, we have war in Europe, changing banking cycle, crypto, three major bubbles due to QE, QT is too far behind to make any impact when bubbles pop. Fiscal policy is too weak due to constant fighting on the Hill.