The Hindsight Bias: Action The Illusion of Predictability

Hindsight bias is a common tendency to overestimate our ability to predict past events after they have occurred. It can lead to an illusion of predictability and impact decision-making. To overcome this bias, it's important to be aware of it and consider multiple outcomes. Additionally, evaluating our thought processes and practicing humility can help prevent the negative consequences of hindsight bias. Factors contributing to the bias include creating coherent narratives, the availability heuristic, and emotional influence. Understanding and managing hindsight bias can improve decision-making and lead to better outcomes.

#hindsightbias #theory #illusion

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