The Financial Event of a Generation is Here.

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Inflation is on a run rate of 6% annualized when looking at January's CPI. This is the fourth STRAIGHT month that inflation has INCREASED month over month. The Fed cant hike rates because they would cause an economic crisis. How can you say inflation is going to stay low? What is going to keep it low? The fed is nowhere near restrictive at this point....

anonymous

This channel doesn’t seem to believe in stagflation

joegage

The unemployment rate ticking lower - that's what the data says. But on the ground, finding a job is getting so bad for the average worker. The data no longer reflects living conditions in America.

Despite what you said, it looks like we're getting breakouts in copper and a number of agricultural commodities. All eyes on oil as it has been consolidating since 2022 and I think it's gonna break any month now If the direction is up, your lower inflation scenario gets thrown out the window.

seancsnm

The triple whammy of lowering interest rates, continuous money printing, and tariffs is going to push inflation way up

Loppy

Unemployment is not a leading indicator. You can’t say that recessions followed high unemployment. Unemployment follows a recession… It is a lagging indicator.
Also having higher savings at 12% in the past does not “cause inflation” ( and by that I know you meant “allow” inflationary practices by businesses to be tolerated by the consumer but phrasing is very important. )
The lower amount of saving means the consumer will not be able to handle inflationary pricing very well and could cause considerable economic struggle especially if prices for goods were to go up… say from tariffs, perhaps?
It does not in any way affect the likelihood of inflation. It does, however affect the economic impact of inflation.
So it will affect businesses decision making process when determining whether to raise prices to cover the tariffs or lower their profits. Because the consumer has less savings, they are going to sooner or later have to choose lower profits. This will have impact to the stock market.

MurderMostFowl

We absolutely are looking at the prolonged stagflation from 68-82 happening again. We may not get the hard recession everyone imagines happening, but instead get a swamp of little growth, rising unemployment, and building inflation. Think about it: the Fed has blown its major tool to bring inflation down through rate cuts early in this fight. If it trends higher down the road they won't have the room to cut rates to fight it. In the short run, yes inflation is going down. But if you look long term, that may not be the case. Your scenario of the government spending increasing is a much more possible event than is given credence.

goldenknight

If consumers are broke, who do they keep spending like crazy? Either they aren't broke or they are deeply in debt. Either way, it's going to end poorly for the economy.

sylvainguinepain

Inflation rose to 3% in January, its highest rate for six months, and above the 2.9% expected by economists.

bluecrimson

inflation will pick in 1 or 2 year's, not because the consumer but because the "best word" tariffs

antonioferreira

I feel like the more the US economy progresses, the less it correlates with past historical data. I.e. the inverse yield curve

wallstreetbro

I'm not sure I agree with the theory that yield increases, (=government bonds lose value) but the US stock market rises.

kravvall

What does “savings” consider? Nowadays due to higher home prices, people park all their “savings” in their home. Therefore the savings right now cannot be compared to 1960/1970s. A lot different now compared to half a century before. We can possibly be at a “high savings rate”

tharshansri

I do not get why a weaker consumer would reduce inflation. Rather I would say that a weak consumer means inflation could cause severe issues and recesion as they simply stop being able to buy as much and either the company profit margins have to be reduced or they lose customers, which in turn leads to less jobs as the companies then need to scale down, which leads to weaker consumption, which in turn continues the downward spiral.

This is also probably one of the weakest reasons I have seen for being alarmist, as the soft landing would indicate the opposite of an impending crisis, but rather that we have now largely paid the main price for the past economical disruption from covid.

That said there is one more big issue that is expected to rear its ugly head, which is goverment debt, and that could cause severe issues later on if it keeps going the way it does. Not necesarily because of what is mentioned here, but simply because the interests will start to get to untenable levels where the tax the US might need to take in could cool down the economy to an extreme, or it simply gets too close to the point where it becomes untenable for the US to pay its debt and have to do drastic things like hyper inflation or declare themselve bankrupt, both options being extremely damaging and likely remove the US status as a superpower.

sorcdk

What's actually likely to happen is more like a 1929's style global depression. The debt picture is completely different today than in the 1970's. Also, the US is a major energy producer and not likely to be impacted by energy shocks like the 70's. Leading up to the 70's rise in bond yields, you see a saucer pattern in the chart, whereas what we've seen recently is more like a bounce off zero from a steady downward trend. Scott Bessent has expressed an imperative to lower yields across the curve, so the government will do what is necessary to achieve that effect - it is a stated objective. In this century we are facing the demographic cliff, so future economic growth will be slowing, Additionally, AI will produce structural unemployment. Trump will produce rising unemployment, leading to a consumer spending recession, at the same time as he axes government spending and tames future government debt. We're primed for a spectacular crash in equity valuations, which will drive big fund money into the relative safety of bonds. With the current levels of debt, rising rates won't get very far until it all falls apart.

cvrart

Been watching bravos research(GOT) for a long time. I appreciate your insight!

thecwwshow

This is a solid analysis, thank you. One aspect left unaddressed is the impetus to hold stocks as a hedge against rate volatility and rising inflation. Stocks performed poorly from 1968 to 1982 in real terms, and valuations (p/s, CAPE, etc) look even riskier today than in 1968. I agree we prob wont see inflation and rates as high as 70s…pain would be enormous…but can stocks withstand rising rates long term?

nocaponomics

I'm kind of new to economy. But I didn't quite get one thing. If the interest rate is likely to go up 4% after the next year, it isn't actually a good idea to aquire treasury bonds now, because they would devalue with a rise of interest rate. So now the best option would be to continue investing in crypto and the S&P 500.

canalselvagem

Good video. In the long term, bonds will rise, I agree. Trump will give up on austerity measures when we are in the depths of a recession. Over the next year or two, however, expect yields to plummet.

TimothyWNugent

What about the high consumer debt? Isn’t that factored in your short term inflation projections?

psychedoutil

It's interesting how the consumer is weak so inflation will stay low. Yet the consumer is weak and earnings go higher?

joshuaburns

The Financial Event of a Generation is Here.