Tesla Q3 Earnings Estimates Break Down

No surprise that Tesla's Q3 will be a record earnings quarter. I will go through everything I expect in the earnings report, along with break downs from each factory for each model as usual.

Follow me on Twitter @teslaeconomist

Support the channel on Patreon

This video is meant for entertainment purposes, not Tesla stock investment advice.

#tesla, #tsla, #teslaStock

[andypatterson]

Am I the only viewer that hits the thumbs up before the video even starts? TE is w/o a doubt some of the best TSLA info on YT!

[AndyZach]

I always like comparing your estimates to Rob Mauer's since you use two different methods. He got $2.17 EPS versus your $2.09. We'll see who wins this quarter. Wait! I know the winner already. Tesla shareholders.

[dr-k]

I love when you do this. Rob from Tesla Daily did his last night. LOL! I think this is my favorite time of the year so it's great that it happens 4 times. Let's see how we do. Next Wednesday is going to be insane.

[trent_carter]

Thank you for the energy and quality you put in this video very well thought out forecast with detailed reasonings. You are a value to the Tesla community. If you keep up the quality work I will keep watching.

[TheElectricMan]

can't wait to see the numbers next week

[richmargin]

I think this runs up to $880 ish before earnings. Then sells on the news. (People will want to take profit near that $900 level anyways) Then when gigaBerlin gets approval early Nov, it tears past $900 into new highs. Years ends touching $1, 000. We could see another $200-$500 added to the stock price in 2022

[mattjones]

Your videos are always fun! Love the calm voice

[grantdavies]

Looking good, should be an interesting report when it comes out.

[Mike-vtyz]

Fantastic work, once again!!!! Thank you and keep it up!! 👍🏼

[matthiasrossen]

Always good feedback and some great numbers! Thank you 🙏 😎

[robwilliams]

From what I've heard, they cant show profit from bitcoin unless they SELL for a profit. It can be marked down on the books, but I dont think it can be karked back up unless the gain is actually realized.

Thanks for your hard work!

[johannel]

Thanks. You put a lot of detail into this. I also work from the change over the prior quarter. However, my numbers are quite a bit higher. Mainly because I think Tesla reached break-even on their current capacity at about 173k vehicles per Q. So I think gross profit is going to EXPLODE this Q with an extra 40k deliveries. The 8.5k swing in inventory from Q2 to Q3 also adds a huge chunk.

Regarding BTC. Profits are only booked when you sell. Even if the BTC price goes to $60k this Q, Tesla cannot book any profit from it. Only when they sell.

The FUD is also getting less in the media. Let's see how Monday goes. But we should see a nice bump into Wednesday. With these numbers (and especially if it hits what I'm expecting), it would be hard to see the SP not continuing to move up.

[dachoppa]

These numbers are very impressive. Which large cap can grow that much at the bottom of the S curve? Maybe my 2030 15, 000 dollar price target is a bear case scenario. lol. I'm not so certain that the stock will move upwards on Thursday. It usually takes a few days for the earning figures to sink in.

[audience]

I only need TSLA to reach $1, 600 by end of 2025 to pay for my retirement including CGT. I won't sell any Tesla though.

[yusufonepiece]

Nice numbers. I'm excited for this :) !

[gaussdog]

Looks like Wall Street agreed after watching
🚀 🚀

[iakona]

They won’t report a profit on BTC until they sell it. But they report the losses based on the lowest price of the quarter that was less than what they paid for it, or less than the lowest price that they already reported a loss on.

[mikelally]

Commodities and freight inflation is going to put a big dent in gross margins this quarter and next. I work for a large, publicly traded international company that makes tools. Freight and metal prices have skyrocketed. The price increases TSLA took already will likely be enough to offset the risk. But if TSLA manages to materially expand gross margins despite the massive inflationary headwinds, it will be incredibly impressive.

[andrasbiro]

I see the supply shortages and the S&X delays as a huge positive. If Tesla can still deliver these crazy high numbers, imagine what will they do unleashed. And with two more giant super efficient factories going forward? I think my retirement isn't far off. Around $2000 I will be able to comfortably retire, even if Tesla never goes any higher.

[beauarts]

Model S long range was originally priced at $80k and has been going up since. Those are the majority of model S orders and production so you need to adjust that ASP down to reflect the ratio of model S long range vs Plaid.