Who Predicted Putin's 2022 Invasion of Ukraine?

Vlad's main channel

Support Vlad's work on Patreon!

Support Vlad via PayPal

[VladVexlerChat]

Vlad's main channel

Support Vlad's work on Patreon!

Support Vlad via PayPal

[dixieflatline]

Winter Is Coming - Garry Kasparov 2015.

EU and others liked cheap oil & gas + Russian black money + ignored the corruption. And here we are.

[mielivalta]

I predicted an invasion in 2014 when the reaction to the annexation of Crimea in the west was way too soft. At that point it was only a matter of time until next invasion. The scale took me by surprise but only for one reason: it made no military sense. I thought Putin was smarter. I overestimated him. There was strategically far better options in the table for him to get Ukraine under his control. He chose the one that backfired the most and it still baffles me.

[jaimepatena]

American baseball player and manager Yogi Berra: "Predictions are hard...especially about the future."

[maiku]

You have plumbed a new level of sophistry. What you are saying boils down to, "I don't care if your predictions are accurate; what matters to me is that your spin gibes with mine." Color me impressed at this chat: Your partisanship and lack of objectivity is so deeply etched in your every thought and word that it's truly amazing! You are one of a kind!

[JustPSNTrophies]

Man I'd love to just sit and chat with vlad for hours on end about anything.

[emmaterrin]

You look time to time better and I'm so happy cuz your reflections are so exciting that I can no more stay without thank for all I love you from Venice ❤

[magnusnilsson]

Adding to the chorus praising the lovely algorithm.

[blindsoldier]

Thank You 🙏
One of your best videos!!
Interesting to try to understand and maybe anticipate the what and why of the past.

[Grace.allovertheplace]

Many thanks for your take on this topic ❤️

[tzorn]

This is exactly why I appreciate your use of percentages so much. It's so frustrating for me to hear people in positions of authority make predictions on a future outcome even when the analysis is good because it treats the future as a straight line. Just using China as an example, were history so linear and free of anomalies, the Nationalists would have either wiped out the communists no later than 1934 or been wiped out themselves in Taiwan by the CCP in 1949-50 depending on when you start drawing your straight line. Trends reverse, pressures increase and decrease, and people make suboptimal decisions based on imperfect information or misunderstood motivations. With your running percentages as shorthand, the trends are included as the percentage shifts while still leaving plenty of room for unforeseen developments. I would love to see it catch on.

[Scanlonam]

I was surprised that Putin invaded Ukraine because so many people in both countries have family in the other.

[mitchellbailey]

Peter Ziehan did, years and years ago in his books. ( Geopolitics )

[pulverapa]

Mearsheimer said it would happen for national security reasons, not regime security reasons.

[boris]

I’m in the US now and have spent a fair amount of time in US for last 15yrs. The term “crisis of trust” IMO is a very mild way of describing a far wider problem, with a large section of the population (40-50%?). Complete lack of; education about the world and other people, themselves as independent citizens and basic facts of nutrition and health, both mental and physical. Almost no ability for critical thinking or discernment on new or opposing - information or views. On any topic you may try to raise with them. A culture permeated with fear, self- loathing and anger. The anger is being directed inward into the country and then outward to Ukraine (one example) via Trump and maga.

[arminthaller]

I wouldn't dismiss Mearsheimer the way Vlad does. As an 'introvert' ( as in C. G. Jung's definition) I am interested in the mental constructs which we use to orient ourselves. Jung calls those constructs 'archetypes'. Within that category Mearsheimers construct is meaningful. I think it has even more in common with the 'regime security' approach Vlad prefers, comparing both to the pacifist approach of my own German government. I would call even the falcons of the Green Party 'pacifist' because they want to contain Putin because he is a warmonger. Both Vlad and Mearsheimer try to construct a map of Putin's mind in order to derive a strategy to deal with the situation. Consider: Both - 'regime security' and 'sphere of influence' - assume that Putin's goal is to stay in control and he is prepared to use violence to secure control. A huge difference between Vlad and Mearsheimer is the placement of agency. Mearsheimer sees superpowers as wielders of agency, Vlad on the other hand focuses on Citizens utilizing democratic institutions. If one abstracts from the difference between Nation and Citizen, both approaches seem to yield similar results. What do I get wrong with that analysis?

[PomahXomehko]

Vlad how's your health the last time I saw you, you were in discomfort lets look into a different phase . Ukrainians invaded Russia and taken 1300 square kilometres they did it to stop a invasion by the Russians through Sumy . There's irony in this Vlad remember Kursk 1 and this is Kursk 2 really rubbing Vova nose into defeat. The Kursk 1 was a submarine losing 118 sailors of which 18 were Ukrainian this was told by my cousin who was a Captain in the Soviet Baltic Fleet and he's still in Latvia . Ukrainians might even invade Belgorod or even Belarus. Ukrainian armed forces have 70000 troops to do that . All this going in the summer reminds what Gorbachev went through in 1991 .

[lkrnpk]

Most of the population of the Baltics :D But I am not sure if it was a prediction than just always expecting the worst from Russia. After Georgia war in fact already people here said ''Ukraine next, then Baltics''... and after Crimea and Donbass there was a sense that Putin will try again in some time

[OttoKreml]

It depends on if we are talking about individual predictions or a statistical set of them.

[Scanlonam]

You wrote about somebody making the most "tea-like" coffee ever. Of course, that assumes being more like tea than coffee is the standard by which coffee should be judged.
самом деле я пила горячий чай впервые в России. Дома только знала холодный сольнечный чай (sun tea) с мятой- и чай считался подорогой. Я была удивлена видить это "роскощь" в стране с эконикическыми проблемами.

There actually a variety of coffee that is often said (somewhat accurately) to be "tea-like" in its flavors. It's called Gesha named after the town in Ethiopia it's said to be from but is widely grown in Panama's highlands among other places. It does taste a bit like tea-tea but also like a sort of floral herbal type. Very unique.

I have to rely on these things, as I'm sulfite sensitive and can't drink wine.

Since you've been a British citizen more of your life than not, I suppose should be careful with coffee vs tea debates. After all, tea (and how we became more of a coffee country) was a plot point in how my country divorced the British Empire.