Russia’s Renewed Offensive in Ukraine: Where Do We Go from Here?

On April 28, the ACG hosted a virtual discussion about the ongoing war in Ukraine and the western response with Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis and former Commanding General, United States Army Europe, and Dr. Claudia Major, Head of the International Security Research Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).

[LiveWellUkraine]

A great conversation. Lt. Gen (Ret) is great!

[mhleuro]

Thanks for this discussion. Given the historical track record of decisions and the current political dithering, it’s completely fair to question any signs of indecisiveness in German’s actions with regards to Ukraine and Russia. Messaging may be a factor but this ability of some German minds to compartmentalize or over-rationalize the costs/benefits of this conflict at arms’ length are quite troubling for allies to see 2+ months in.

[janesmith]

I wish these panelists were interviewed on American news channels. They have each greatly expanded my understanding of why the war started and is progressing as it is. Thank you!

[normdyer]

This discussion is immensely more important than its view-count and like-count indicate. Is there some problem with the youtube algorithm which hides it?

[johnm]

I find the arrogance of this man annoying. He is going on about how the Americans train and how they are ready, in other words the superiority of Americans troops compared to the Russians, well recent history doesn’t bear out his claims. In 9 weeks these inefficient conscripts with broken down equipment have almost achieved what they set out to do where the superior Americans took 20 years in Afghanistan to lose. Give me strength

[LarsPallesen]

13 days later: What Russian offensive?

[yomismo]

Only ben was Right. 4 months later he is right on

[leshartop]

As Ben Hodges points out, Ukraine were not "out manned" in February. Ukraine had an army of 250, 000 to 330, 000. Far bigger than other army in NATO, possibly bar one, Turkey.

So Russia must have had a plan (which they haven't shared with us) that they thought could deal with this numerical inferiority, despite the fact that they knew the Ukrainians were entrenched (its visible on Google earth) and despite any offensive moves normally requiring something like 3 to 1 superiority.

In addition 40, 000 troops was never going to be enough to take Kiev. Maybe it was wishful thinking or a very expensive feint.

So I think the popular Western assumption that Russia wanted to takeover the whole country and expected to do this in days or weeks have been wrong.

Putting some possible priorities on things...
Russia could see an offensive being prepared by the Ukrainians to take back Donetsk and Lohansk.
If that had been successful, then Crimea (including the Sebastopol naval base) would have been next.
In addition, Crimea was having problems with water supply due to its isolation.

All those immediate issues have now been resolved militarily.

Next priorities will be ; to ensure that this situation never reappears, and to remove the military threat from a militarised Ukraine and potential siting of NATO missiles in Ukraine (with, it has to be said, some pretty trigger happy fingers very near to those missiles).

This means, outside of a negotiated settlement, Russia will push on, not to occupy everything, but to destroy or capture the entire Ukrainian military.

Given the size of the Ukrainian army, the Russians could never have thought this would be quick.

[STii]

Ukraine is losing just accept it without sugarcoatibg the sh!t

[johnm]

The Russians should be glad he is not one of their generals

[johnm]

First mistake Ukraine forces were not outmanned. The Russians were outmanned 3 to 1

[poornalingam]

These guys are drenched in western propaganda ...thank god we indians watch an unbiased view of this conflict...

[bigred]

Do you listen to anything your own countryman are saying about the conflict in Ukraine mate? You are way off target, are you sure you are not CIA stooge?

[philognosis]

Could one of you do some condemnation of the gross violations of human rights by the Ukrainians and their military, no. Video of warcrimes crickets. Attacking one's own civilians and pretending it was Russia for headlines before the internet found the part number for the missile really wonderful.