Author Spotlight: The Future of Al Qaeda and Associated Movements (AQAM)

Almost 10 years after 9/11, al Qaeda remains a threat, but “a threat transformed.” The al Qaeda brand remains strong, but the organization is more diffuse than ever, creating a much more complicated threat environment. CSIS experts Rick “Ozzie” Nelson and Thomas M. Sanderson launched a report February 8, 2011, examining the drastically altered structure of al Qaeda and Associated Movements, or AQAM. As part of the AQAM Futures Project, the report lays the foundation for a larger, year-long study to forecast the nature of AQAM in 2025. Al Qaeda today comprises three distinct tiers: al Qaeda core, al Qaeda affiliates and like-minded groups, and al Qaeda-inspired nonaffiliated cells and individuals. But this landscape is changing rapidly. U.S., Western, and international counterterrorism strategies must evolve to keep pace. The AQAM Futures Project seeks to generate recommendations to defeat the threat over the long term.