Laying the Draw: Football Trading Strategy...

Most people have heard of laying the draw in football. But one follower has a question about the football trading strategy. In this members Q & A Caan share's a little insight.

For more laying the draw tips and ticks, check out this blog post:

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Caan Berry successful Betfair trader featured by Betfair, matchbook, and Betdaq. Specialising in horse racing, tennis on the sports exchange market.
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[squareeyes]

Hi Caan, only seeing this video now, but some top class information in here. If anyone is serious about trading, they should watch this video. Yes, the overall idea was to answer the question about lay the draw, but some of your info can and should be applied to a wider range of markets.

[jasoneaton]

Brighton vs arsenal was a perfect example of selecting the right match for a successful trade imo 👍

[therebel]

I get where your coming from the biased point of view and being a follower of a football club, but over time I've found absolutely no problem betting against and for my club Derby, two playoff finals and they've been my biggest wins to date in regards to result betting, and it wasn't a reverse psychology thing either because I wanted the money over the club winning esp in the Villa game. Some will say I've grown apart from a following a club sense, fell out of love with the club, but I think its helped being an avid fan of a club (use to absolutely get so emotionally involved with Derby, I was a nervous wreck in the 2007 playoff final), its tutored me about the game and I've gotten a wide understanding of it nowadays which is down to watching the games week in week out and learning from that sense. It probably is a case of not caring about Derby as much as I use to (childhood and young adult) but I've defiantly benefitted from a betting point of view because of those years.

[stevedavies]

Quite simply, the best overall strategy is to lay the draw in the final 5 mins. Odds between 1.2 - 1.4. Ideally there was a favourite at the start of the game, plenty of shots on target and (my preference) score draws only. Low liability trades. Last night's Palace v Man Utd was the perfect trade... I LTD at 1.2, the goal came.

[peterbergman]

The problem with laying the draw is when nobody scores. I had five 0-0 draws in a row. It wiped me out.

[jonh]

Very timely video Caan given Man United's 91st minute winner last night and their tendency to score late in the game (or so it seems). Some useful pointers there that I will be taking forward.

[DublinDapper]

2018 and were talking about laying the draw...wow

[deanhickton]

Also don't know if you agree but laying the draw with odds under 4 seems to work in the long run 3.4 to 3.6 perfect..

[piontybird]

Laying the draw is a good example of fools gold, over a long term you are likely to lose. Yes you may win for a while. I have looked for good football strategies over a long period of time and like yourself have no interest in the game itself. However I have a deep interest in probabilities, the best is what you and others say look for value. But to gain from this value you would have to trade all other similar matches to gain the value long term. The foolishness of the game is that most of the matches start at the same time and to achieve an overall advantage is diminished by the impossibility of watching 30 or so matches at the same time. A superb video as always from you. I would say as a hobby football trading can be fun at best if you like the game but an overall winning strategy long term is just a painful pursuit for a money making trader. Under and over goals, last 5 minutes trading against a goal looking for value [generally in foreign matches with low liquidity] is preferrable.

[Rafalucija]

Brilliant video Caan, you explained it perfectly. Just wish you would've made this vid years ago when I was starting out :D The first bit of success that I had as a total newb was LTD with a very strict criteria and it worked well for that first season, but once the new season came rolling I had to abandon it because there were no stats whatsoever. Was a great move in hindsight because I was forced to learn how to trade properly, switch over to horse racing etc.

[Mitjitsu]

You're not going to find much value betting on the Premier or Champion's League. As the bookmakers tend to be very knowledgeable on them. However, betting on lower leagues especially in Scotland tend to have a lot of value as bookies tend to overestimate home advantage and have significant gaps in knowledge. However, in this day and age it's easy to research online and get the edge on the bookmakers.

[casper]

Im a bit new to this i laid the draw for £10 at 3.6 odds , it said payout £36 but on my statement it said Potential profit £10 what am i missing ?

[simonround]

Everybody seems very down onLTD here. Like any strategy the devil is in the detail. There is a way to skew the markets in your favour. I've been doing it for a while now. The key as ever is in finding the right stats and using them to your advantage.

[deanhickton]

I've found laying the draw with 15 minutes left in a match when the score is 0-0 gives great value got 1.18 once risked £1.80 to win £10 if a team won 84th minute winner.. did get a bit of luck though penalty was missed in 92nd minute few!!! Haha

[ebojfmdboojoh]

It seems that lay the draw is a common strategy. But what about a back the draw strategy. I think there are a lot of games where a draw is vastly overpriced. What if you look for two teams playing who have a decent defensive record and score most of their goals in the 2nd half. Back the draw and if it's 0-0 at half time get out

[igor]

If you layed every draw in the premier league 2018/2019 with 10 euros stake you would make 934.2 euros(24.58% roi)

[PaulEngland-piih]

Kevin, try supporting Spurs & you'll be UP!! Ha Ha.

[munafiksekali]

One of the dumbest strategy lol. Every months i always won in football even not big but always profit...with simple strategy patient...only bet valued bet... Read bookie story every match is fixed and got story lol