Is Russia's Economy about to Collapse?

In this video Stanimir Dobrev and I discuss the state of the Russian Economy after one year of the Ukraine War. We look at employment, the effect of sanctions, the war economy, etc.

Cover design by vonKickass.

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00:00 Intro
00:20 Russian Employment
04:57 What Sectors are affected?
07:40 Did Russia switch to a War Economy?
11:02 Civilian Sector declining
14:20 Banking Collapse?
15:22 Economic Collapse?
18:33 Western Sanctions?
20:10 Drastic Cuts to be expected

#RussianEconomy #ukrainewar #ukraine

[ilias]

My God how oblivious people are about Russia in these comments, is actually astounding.
Endlessly high on your own propaganda.

[Deuslovult]

Maybe next time invite some impartial experts? It used to be a good historical channel, but now it's propaganda trash. Unsubbed.

[michaelthayer]

I lived in Russia from 2016-2021, and while I was there the economy was never great, inflation was always high, prices always rose, and wages never went up. So in a sense this sounds so far like business as usual, for now.

[grizwoldphantasia]

If Germany and Japan in WW II, and North Korea now, could avoid economic collapse, Russia should be able to also. Doesn't mean Russia will have a good healthy economy, but it will be survivable.

[mensch]

The phenomenon of people on seemingly permanent unpaid leave is not completely unheard of here in the States. I've seen it with workers from a unionized factory. The factory lets people go, but due to aspects of the contract with the union these people are to be the first to be hired if employment picks up again. Then it becomes a matter of if people can hold out until (or if) the factory goes back to hiring, or if they give up and find a new full-time job or even move. This is also not unknown in the West Virginia coal mining economy, where structural employment remains high because if you are one of the lucky ones rehired by the mines during a good phase in the demand for coal, you can make extremely good money. But otherwise, you are likely living in extremely dire poverty (hardly unknown in Appalachia). Teacher contracts often are written so that teachers with tenure are not laid off but furloughed. This is not that common yet, but I have an aunt who is a librarian who was furloughed and spent a year being semi-unemployed because the elementary school she worked at turned the library into more classrooms and no longer needed her position (she eventually got a job being a detention hall monitor in a different school in the district). I say that she was semi-unemployed because he had a part-time job in the period when she was furloughed. This is likely very common in such situations. A person takes part-time and/or "under the table" work so they can afford to stay in place in their hometown hoping that their old job will reappear.

[jaredmcfadden]

Perun has a great video on war economies and why the don’t collapse (until they do). It’s an hour long but very much worth the watch

[AsbestosMuffins]

"we're also seeing an increase in the consumption of hard liquor instead of wine"
yikes, it takes a lot of anxiety to increase the alcoholism rate in russia

[nukeout]

For planes they did that thing where they stole all the foreign planes that were in Russia in 2022 - So no one will be flying to Russia on corporate planes for a long long time after all this settles down. They will not forget that easily.

[SchutzeAmon]

“There is no instance of a nation benefiting from prolonged warfare.” ~ Sun Tzu

[saltmerchant]

Collapse, no.
Systemic irreversible degeneration, yes.

[pilotmanpaul]

Short Answer: No.
Long Answer: Still No.

[MsZeeZed]

The decline in internal Russian aviation is a surprise, that sector was a top 3 budget priority in 2022. Its of major importance in binding the regions of Russia together. Dividing up Russian regions, but binding them together is the foundation of Putin’s control of Russia. Its a key measure of his competence to rule for ordinary Russians

[calebwindburn]

I always enjoy your talk with this gentleman. It offers a good variety in covering such an history shaping event such as war in our time. Military’s can only be supported by economy’s.

[PaulFlude]

The good news is decrees for production are at an all time high!

[adam-k]

Right now the Russian budget is already passed the yearly deficit goal. The welfare found dropped 10%. And it only April. The Ministry of Finance just announced that they waiting for "voluntary donations" of 5% of profit from all Russian companies. They can pay it in 2024 but if they pay it in 2023 then it will be "cheaper" whatever a cheaper voluntary donation means.

[dk]

Krokodil shortages are only local and temporary.

[marksharpe]

The statistics are interesting but the better comparison would be 2019 due to lockdown in 2020 to 2022. Office space might be not as needed as much because of people working.

[ilias]

So how's that Russia collapsing situation going? 😂😂😂😂😂

[peterschmidt]

My question would be, how long until railroad capacity breaks down, due to a lack of (quality) ball bearings and similar components. Russia won't work without railroads.

[phizc]

You should put in the title that Stanimir is on! His insight is fantastic, and if I had known, I wouldn't have let this video get on my backlog. I'd watch it immediately!