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Do NBA Coaches Even Matter?

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We are going to look at a Study done by the University of Chicago.
They came up with a methodology for finding coach effectiveness called RIFLE.
Randomization Inference for Leadership Effectiveness
RIFLE is a formula that tries to factor out chance and elements outside the control of a coach to measure how much influence leadership has on a teams record.
In the NBA a coaching change is shown to worsen a teams record for the immediate future. Again pretty obvious, if you’re changing coaches you’re either giving up on the season or focusing on rebuilding.
Overall this study's conclusion was that across all sports the success of a team is about 20-30% percent in control of the coach.
It seems to me that the first head to roll after a failed season is always the coach.
Here’s why. NBA coaching salaries don’t count toward the salary cap, so they are easy to let go.
A player is harder to let go because their contract counts toward your cap. You can release them but that doesn’t free up any cap space for you.
Coaches are paid significantly less than players.
Highest paid coach is greg popovich at 11 million dollars a year
That’s enough to pay reggie jackson or dwight powell
As a general manager cutting a coach is less costly and is going to be seen as a far bigger management move than trading Powell or Jackson.
I bring up the example of Frank Vogel.
I think Frank Vogel was unfairly fired from the Lakers.
I think the squad he was dealt in 2021-22 as a product of Rob Pelinkas management was not enough to achieve even a mediocre amount of success.
Ultimately Rob Pelinka the GM of the Lakers had to blame someone besides himself so he put it on Vogel.
Vogel was replaced with Darvin Hamm and they still suck.
Which again isn’t Darvin Hamm’s fault.
What is the responsibility of a coach and How much do they actually control?
For instance Tyron Lue coached the clippers in the 2021 playoff series against the jazz to play small ball and focus on perimeter shooting.
Knowing that the only defensive threat on that team was Rudy Gobert who was not a great perimeter defender. The Clippers shot them out of the game and won the series 4 games to 2
Coaches run practices
A coach needs to manage his staff and practices and ensure every member of the rotation is prepared for the next game.
One way that went wrong was in 2018 when in his first week of coaching Jim Boylen held a 2 and a half hour practice where the players did military pushups and wind sprints. Then he scheduled a practice on a Sunday the day after a back to back.
They came up with a methodology for finding coach effectiveness called RIFLE.
Randomization Inference for Leadership Effectiveness
RIFLE is a formula that tries to factor out chance and elements outside the control of a coach to measure how much influence leadership has on a teams record.
In the NBA a coaching change is shown to worsen a teams record for the immediate future. Again pretty obvious, if you’re changing coaches you’re either giving up on the season or focusing on rebuilding.
Overall this study's conclusion was that across all sports the success of a team is about 20-30% percent in control of the coach.
It seems to me that the first head to roll after a failed season is always the coach.
Here’s why. NBA coaching salaries don’t count toward the salary cap, so they are easy to let go.
A player is harder to let go because their contract counts toward your cap. You can release them but that doesn’t free up any cap space for you.
Coaches are paid significantly less than players.
Highest paid coach is greg popovich at 11 million dollars a year
That’s enough to pay reggie jackson or dwight powell
As a general manager cutting a coach is less costly and is going to be seen as a far bigger management move than trading Powell or Jackson.
I bring up the example of Frank Vogel.
I think Frank Vogel was unfairly fired from the Lakers.
I think the squad he was dealt in 2021-22 as a product of Rob Pelinkas management was not enough to achieve even a mediocre amount of success.
Ultimately Rob Pelinka the GM of the Lakers had to blame someone besides himself so he put it on Vogel.
Vogel was replaced with Darvin Hamm and they still suck.
Which again isn’t Darvin Hamm’s fault.
What is the responsibility of a coach and How much do they actually control?
For instance Tyron Lue coached the clippers in the 2021 playoff series against the jazz to play small ball and focus on perimeter shooting.
Knowing that the only defensive threat on that team was Rudy Gobert who was not a great perimeter defender. The Clippers shot them out of the game and won the series 4 games to 2
Coaches run practices
A coach needs to manage his staff and practices and ensure every member of the rotation is prepared for the next game.
One way that went wrong was in 2018 when in his first week of coaching Jim Boylen held a 2 and a half hour practice where the players did military pushups and wind sprints. Then he scheduled a practice on a Sunday the day after a back to back.
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