Stop Trying to Predict the 2024 Election

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CHAPTERS
0:00 - 3:13 - Intro
3:14 - 4:48 - Current polls
4:49 - 7:32 - The history
7:33 - 11:45 - The evolution
11:46 - 14:25 - The 2016 problem
14:26 - 19:49 - The 2020 problem
19:50 - 20:24 - Economic optimism
20:35 - 22:15 - How to know if poll data is reliable

[PurpleDuneEfa]

Everyone's predictions are wrong. I flipped a coin and the president will be TAILS

[kopskey]

The irony of The Hill posting a poll, that says 52% of American's don't trust polls, is really funny

[speedingpullet]

As a statistician, I learnt a long time ago that political polls mean bupkis until a few weeks to the election. I mean, by the end of october I'd probably pay a little attention, but until then polls will reflect the news.

[WayneHSmithJr]

I'm a millennial and I've never been called to repond to a poll. Every gen z person I know dismisses polls as a relic of the past. That's exactly what they are.

[DJFloorPancake]

I predict a rise in my blood pressure and overall anxiety

[danyg]

My prediction for the 2024 election is that it will happen and there will be results.

[Belial-jgrp]

When you realize that polls only ask up to 2000 people, that call from an unknown number and last 30 minutes during dinner time, ask yourself what kind of people answer the phone at dinner and whine for 30 minutes to a complete stranger.

[eric]

Less polling. Less fundraising. More campaigning ON THE ISSUES.

[Drrick]

Im a statistician (PhD in hand). I watched this piece with a big smile on my face. As usual, you hit a f'ing home run. I couldn't have done better! Thank you for your well researched and presented ideas. Keep up the great work!

[s.bridges]

Another unfortunate result from polls that I have personally witnessed is that many people will simply not bother to vote if their chosen candidate has enough of a lead or is so far behind that they feel their vote doesn't make that much difference. This is especially true if the voter has to miss wages in order to vote.

[jeffersonclippership]

Leeja, you should do a video on how media framing politics like a sport (presidential elections are often referred to as horse races) is bad for democracy.

[jaredcollins]

"I DON'T WANT NO POLL SURVEYOR KNOWING MY BUSINESS!"
*Proceeds to live-stream storming the capital building

[ync_cas]

You are so right on 💯 %
Glad someone reported this because any media will not explain it like you have. Thanks 🙏🏼

[boneyardrestorodz]

This is extremely true. Thank you for sharing this. This is very, very important.

[OscarSotoJr]

I spat my water when she called them “map daddies”. 🤣🤣🤣

[PIANOPLAYJAZZ]

Polls are only valid in a popular vote...while we sit flaccid every 4 years debating the antiquated electoral college

[XH]

A few weeks ago, Pew Research published the result of a poll where they asked amongst other questions if the respondent was licensed to operate a nuclear submarine.
The real percentage is in practice 0% : there are 72 US nuclear submarines, 2 crews each, some of them at sea and not responding to poll anyway.
Compared to 330 millions of US citizens that's not a lot of people.
But amongst young people and Hispanic adults, they got up to a 25% result, proving the respondents didn't understand or even read the question.

That was an opt-in web survey, a kind of poll that often go with a monetary reward (or a coupon to some e-commerce site). That study proved they were pretty much garbage

[ClaudetteMcKenzie-ueiv]

Leeja Miller is a very good informative person who gives you the best information possible. Good work.

[danross]

Thank you for existing, who you are and what you do. ❤

[racquinox]

Get out to vote, get your friends out to vote, get your family out to vote, offer rides if you can.

No matter what the polls say, the only poll that's going to matter is at the actual ballot box