An Update on Ray Dalio's Views of The Five Big Forces Shaping 2024

Earlier this year I sat down with Jim Haskell, editor of the Bridgewater Daily Observations, and published an article where I described my five big forces framework and how these forces will shape 2024 and the years to come (link below).

Considering all that's happened in just the last three months in #markets, #economies, and certainly on the #geopolitical front, Jim and I sat down again to discuss my latest thinking on these dynamics, which I'm sharing here. I hit each of the five big forces, elaborate on where we stand with each, and also discuss how these forces connect with each other.

In this recording, you’ll hear me discuss the #debt, #money, and #economic force—including my thoughts on the potential for Fed easing when #inflation remains above target, as well as portfolio considerations in today’s environment. I also discuss the internal order force—that’s the second force—with an emphasis on the 2024 US #presidential #election. Hit on the external world order force, including rising geopolitical #conflicts, and my read on what’s happening in #China. I talk about the force of #nature, notably #climatechange, and its economic consequences. And lastly, about the force of human inventiveness, including the potential for #AI to bring radical change in the coming years.

I hope you find this helpful, looking forward to your thoughts and questions in the comments.

00:00 Introduction
01:31 Chapter 1: Five Big Forces Overview
06:50 Chapter 2: The Debt/Money/Economic Force
21:23 Chapter 3: The Internal Conflict Force and the US Election
29:26 Chapter 4: The External Conflict Force
33:30 Chapter 5: Assessing What’s Happening in China
​​39:51 Chapter 6: AI and Climate Considerations
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For more from Ray:

[SSYlist]

always great to listen to Ray on macro's... full of insights

[stephengibson]

Extremely useful and insightful discussion. Thank you.

[Fightfortruth]

Ray, your work and dedication are a gift to all who tune in. Thank you for your hard work, and willingness to share your experience and understanding 🙏

[Ryan]

Ray condenses thousands of hours of deep thought so clearly, for free. Grateful.

[L.ChangHoon]

I learn a lot from you. Thank you Ray!

[MobyMediaWorld]

great conversation. thank you Ray and Jim!

[kuandemarco]

Ray is in among a small group of the 1% that tells the truth without sugarcoating or sourcoating what it takes to win in economics. He tells it in a way that’s easily digestible and general enough to fill in the gaps that affect people culturally as well as individually. He’s on my imaginary board 😆

[vbridgesruiz-phd]

My personal solution to petty conflicts and the dynamics emerging from them: don't participate in their epistemics; instead, view them as "constraints" and innovate accordingly.

There is no need to participate in petty games. Instead, we can channel our emotional energies, i.e. the frustrations of unfortunate dynamics, to elevate our strategies, collaborate and innovate.

Controlling our emotions is key.

[homestudio]

أود أن اتقدم بالشكر للسيد ري داليو و السيد جيم هاسكل على مشاركة هذه المعلومات القيمة معنا، أتمنى أن تظلوا بخير دائماً

[martynawlodarczyk]

Thank you for sharing this! Just signed up for the Bridgewater Newsletter. What do you think about robo-advisors when it comes to investment?

[elba_magellan]

Much appreciate Ray sharing his insights..

[KINSHUKJAIN-yhmw]

In Ray's book : THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER, he mentioned that he is working on a new book i.e. Principles: Investment and Finance. When can we expect the new book ?

[MrNoWool]

An excellent update, breakdown in societal cohesion in the waning phase of power seems evident in our society. What happens though if the waxing power does not follow its claimed Confucian values and embeds a self perpetuating Authoritarian malignant power entwined with the overwhelming power of the emerging AGI then ASI … this might be the last great cycle?

[sofjen]

Thank you for the update, Dalio's view is very valuable.

[ttsang]

Thank you so much for sharing this with all of us! Always great to learn from Ray’s perspective!

[Billsuperwang]

Thank you for sharing this amazing discussion. How can I sign up to the bridgewater daily observation newsletter?

[jimross]

Imagine having Ray's money and what you could do with it I'd live so much better.

[quriousmikey]

Be useful, be humble, spend less than you earn. Follow this advice on the individual level.

[asian_masculinity]

Metro Boomin should put Ray in his beats

[CharlesBrown-xqug]

Do people highly educated in thermodynamic physics know of a higher consideration of nature that overrides accepting that diodes can rectify Johnson - Nyquest thermal noise power and, given the orderliness of consistent orientation in parallel, aggregate a DC residue from each diode into electrical power at any scale coproduced with refrigeration of equivalent thermal energy absorbtion?