Predicting SPX for 0-DTE options trades

Predicting the SPX price movement though the day for 0-DTE options trading

[idahodaytrader]

My mantra when trading 0DTE is "I don't predict SPX, I react to it". I trade on News, VIX, expected move, RSI, Delta, 200 SMA, 3 and 8 EMA. I usually wait for the 15 minute breakout, then decide if and where I'm gonna place my trade. I do low risk, low yield trades with 90%+ win rate. I generally let my trades expire worthless.

[flmason]

I'm a developer too, but on much more legacy platforms... that said... you keep saying "It's a calculated index"... but bear in mind it's calculated off of the S&P... so you can't just "reverse engineer the calculation"... because the calculations are driven by the underlying market... you can reverse that calculations... but not the randomizing element... the market. (Or so they say.)

Black-Scholes used to work... got a Nobel Prize... until it didn't... "volatility smiles".

I.e. one of the "building blocks" is alleged to be "random".

Of course with enough info... that apparent randomness really isn't. The universe is after all (at least by some accounts) deterministic. But whether we can get all the data needed and calculate the outcome before it happens... different question.

When we can't... probaballistic methods it what is generally reverted too. ("Out come X will occur 95% of the time with xx% confidence... blah blah....")

Your essentially looking for the holy grail... the perfect leading indicator...

In any event Renasaince Technologies Medallion Fund shows it can be done... to the tune of %60 a year before fees for decades... so it can be done, but it may not be easy.

[tonylew]

Thanks Bryan! I’ll definitely be following. I’m also a programmer.

[MultiplePassiveStreamsOfIncome]

Hey VR - How can I get daily SPX predictions from you? I find what you are attempting to do very fascinating. Options are priced mathematically so I always wondered if the pricing could give us an "edge" but I have no knowledge to be able to explore that possibility so seeing your 2 videos on this mathematical approach has my interest extremely peaked! Thanks!

[Mojo]

I don't know if it will help, but have you checked out the expected move listed in the options chain in TOS?

[jjjnoronha]

Hello you the best. I'm trying to automate one strategy to that is basically opening 6 to 15 iron condoors in a day. Reinforcement learning can work pretty well as an edge to have better probabilities with all that data plus, Vix expected intraday move. Wish you the best.

[Noodles]

When the VIX is up high 25+ the SPX 0 DTE is very hard to trade with the bigger swings. I have stopped after 1 year trying their strat. You have to be ok with taking some losses. As you can have 3 day of winners making 400 bucks total, but 1 day loss can cost you 300 bucks.

[jackvucreative]

Super dope. Thanks for sharing keep up the great work. Any updates on this with the current market?

[markswinson]

Thanks for sharing your work. Has the potential to be game changing. (Glad you are feeling better.)

[yuqinghou]

Very interesting work. Would you mind posting your historical predictions, like those of past 30 trading days?

[momchi]

Hey VoidedRealms, I have been a fan of your Qt tutorials from 15+ years ago :)... but a humble comment - yes SPX is a computed index, so theoretically one would be able to "reverse engineer" it based on underlying(s) even with their statistical properties, but with options even more so with 0DTE theta, or time decay is super important - so the question is "how far (or early) before the expiration" this can make a probable prediction? One can easily see how delta's are narrowing around the price as the expiry nears with more "certainty" but in order to make money selling volatility (iron condors), the option premium vs potential loss (risk) also diminishes very quickly, I am sure you know it by now :)... so curious if that "dependency" you spotted around noon - did it hold up for the last 2 months (see this video is 8mo old)?

[AMDEVER]

Very cool! Looking forward to seeing how this plays out :)

[vitaliys]

Once I have worked with these Binary options just for fun. First, let's assume you have about 50% posibility your bet will go down or up. Ofcourse, you may have used some prediction system and got even 60%. So half (or a bit more) of your bids will be win. But the binary options operator take some marge from each your bid and usually it's about 10-20% (you bid 1 dollar, you get 80-90 cents plus your dollar in return if you win).
So if you predict with 60% accuracy - it's still not enough. You have to do it with 60%+ at least to earn some money. And it's kinda impossible.
It's like a casino - in a good casino you have about 49/51 chance to win. But in binary options it's even less.
I think such analytic system should use real world news and correct its predictions based on it. So it's not a pure Math.

[laurencesmith]

How r your predictions diung. Joining axe just to see ur predictions. The broken wing wing put butterfly will be golden if I can nail the closing price within 20$ love the idea and more power. If u decide to offer your own discord dude u will attract lots of Option degens!!

[donaldmay]

Good stuff! I may have to come over to Axe to follow you. Keep up the great work

[beegreengrowersunionwv.]

Isn't there a study you can add to your charts that does this already ?

[kiongsham]

How do i join AXE options channel on discord?

[TwinkleTrebleClef]

Thank you for sharing this. AXE Options is definitely a great place to be. You have been working really hard and please take good rest and recover fast.

[Steve-dcuz]

Thanks for showing this Bryan. How could someone contact you?

[raresouls]

How do you work in new supply and demand zones on the higher frames into this?