Moving Average Time Series Forecasting with Excel

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@Matt Macarty
#Excel #Forecasting #TimeSeries #DataAnalysis #BusinessIntelligence

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Forecast Moving Average Time Series Analysis

Part I of Introductory Time Series Forecasting Series

Introduction to Time Series Forecasting with Moving Averages

✅ Part II & III can be found at the links below:
Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing and Weighted moving average:

Testing the quality of the forecast with Theil's U:

Introduction to time series forecasting using examples of moving average forecasting. We attempt to forecast the price of Gold using the GLD ETF as a proxy for the price of gold. Includes a discussion of commonly used error measures, mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE, RMSE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE). Error measures are used to determine how good your forecast is, in other words, they measure how far off your forecast is on average.

Learn how to utilize the power of Excel to forecast future trends using Moving Average techniques. This video will guide you through the step-by-step process of implementing Simple Moving Average (SMA) methods.

You'll discover:

Understanding Time Series Data: Grasp the fundamentals of time series data and its components.
Simple Moving Average (SMA): Learn how to calculate SMAs and interpret their results.
Weighted Moving Average (WMA): Explore the concept of assigning weights to recent data points for more accurate forecasts.
Excel Implementation: Step-by-step guidance on using Excel functions and formulas to calculate moving averages and generate forecasts.
Model Evaluation: Assess forecast accuracy using key metrics like Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE).
Real-world Applications: See how these techniques can be applied to various business scenarios, from sales forecasting to inventory management.
Whether you're a beginner or an experienced analyst, this video will equip you with the skills to make informed decisions based on data-driven insights.
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This was extremely helpful - Thank You!

missmona
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Very well done. Amazing explanation. Easy for everyone! Thanks

Terniedintorni
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Nicely Explained. I have a question - How can we utilize MAD, MAPE to improve our model ?

NewClips-yvrl
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where does the 1.28 in cell H4 come from? (towards the end of the video, under 10 week forecast errors)

denvervegas
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how do you deal with real-life scenarios? i.e., missing data? should we just use interpolation methods?

skepptickle
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If I have monthly totals for the last two years (24 observations) and want to forecast another two years, how do you adjust the formulas to accomplish this? I’d like to use a 3 month moving average. So where my dataset ends, how do I forecast where the observations end?

Corbytender
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How would you do this for a large data switch non uniform / random dates? I’m trying to show moving average of how open positions have been open since Jon posted date and the dates are all over. All videos like this start with uniform date delta

NCFM
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thank you for sharing. I played fantasy sports, can this moving average predict the next performance of player?

emensonjean
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Is this simple, exponential or weighted MA?

nidhiparker
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Thank you for the video. My question is how do we determine how many period to include? Why did you choose 5 or 10?

alhawraalshams
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how we did not forecasting for 1/1/18, this there specific reason for it ?

azar
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How can you forecast the data in week 6/4/2018 and so on? Can we use the same method being use before this week and just use the forecasted data(125.45 in week 5/28/2018)?

analizamagnaye
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Hi Matt, thanks for the great video. Do you mind to explain what is the difference between Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE)? Because the formula that you are using for calculating MAD is similar with MAE.

aryaandhika
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hi
in this case how can we do for next 7 months forecasting

mohammadsalim
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How I can calculate equivalent EMA in different time frame? i.e. I would like to find stocks which their price is higher than 13 EMA on a weekly chart frame but my options are Daily Moving Averages like 20, 50, 100 and 200. So what daily EMA number would represent 13 weekly EMA? Can anyone help please?

moesadr
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is there any fast way to forecast 1000 part numbers (inventory) at one go?

samwoon
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how can you forecast the data after week 6/4/2018?

yangli
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This is not a forecast. Where is the extrapolation with the data? You are just drawing the trend

raphaelbonillo
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