Unit 2B - Part 1 - Standard Error of an Estimated Probability (how wrong are we?)

00:00 - Intro Videos
00:47 - Business analytics and probabilities
01:14 - Motivating example: doubling money with a betting system on roulette
02:25 - Review - frequentist definition and implications of probability
03:24 - Standard Error - How wrong is our estimated probability?
04:35 - Notation: p, p-hat, n, SE
05:22 - Investigation - how far is p-hat from p when p=.5?
08:35 - Investigation - distribution of possible p-hats that might be measured during a Monte Carlo simulation
09:39 - Graphical definition of the Standard Error using the Normal curve
10:26 - About 2/3s of p-hats are within 1 SE of p
11:34 - Dependence of the Standard Error with the number of trials n
13:13 - Dependence of the Standard Error with true value of p
18:05 - Master formula for the standard error
18:23 - How to interpret the value of the standard error
19:25 - Sample size requirements to use the formula for the standard error
19:47 - Summary
20:21 - Exit Video