J. Richard Gott III - What is the Doomsday Argument?

The Copernican Principle asserts that humans are not special, that we should expect to find ourselves in an ordinary place or position. But if humanity continues for billions of years, we today would find ourselves extraordinarily early in human history. Therefore, the Doomsday Argument predicts that the human species will not continue for very much longer.




John Richard Gott III is a Professor of Astrophysical Sciences at Princeton University who is noted for his contributions to cosmology and general relativity.


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[TheCleric]

By this argument, the time until the next use of nuclear weapons is between 2 and 3042 years from now.

[diannewallace]

The fact that so many people has asked whether our human civilization is coming to a conclusion indicated that it is. A better question is: How long can a failed civilization continue when the species that created that civilization destroys everything it comes in contact with including it's own home. By any measurement, Man is a failed species. What should happen to such a species? If Man were not emotionally connected to this issue, people would all say the same thing. The species deserves to perish as soon as possible so that the damage it has caused is kept to a minimum. But we're not talking about some alien species are we? We're talking about us. So, we will muddle on, making all kinds of excuses for our behavior until that fateful day comes and what is left of us has to accept finally what has happened. I don't envy them.

[Rafael__]

There's an implicity subjetivism in his theory that completely invalidates it. The Berlim Wall example he gives only seems to make sense because his conversation with his friend happened when the wall had that specific age. He could very well have made that travel with his friend in the late 70's or 80's and his theory wouldn't be applicable. Something else's existence duration probability can not rely on the time the observer happen to think about it.

[whycantiremainanonymous]

A newborn baby (say, one hour old) is 95% likely to die within 92.3 seconds and 39 hours (somewhat under two days). A 100 year-old is 95% likely to live for at least two and a half years, and at most 3, 900 years.
Great argument!

[markberman]

None of his math works and does demonstrate how rationalism can only go so far. We have been around a wee longer than 200, 000 years and how long we last is not based, in any way shape or form, on maths or statistics. How long we last depends, entirely, on what we do with what we have. There's an old saying "up or out"... this is entirely related to human existence. I wonder if continued disregard for how global humanity will help us get up and out or not? In evolution, what happened to the dodo bird? If we do not master ourselves, and curb the avarice of the worst of us do we really believe we'll get out? What if we must cure ourselves of some thing, at least to an extent that it can no longer be the human paradigm as it exists today and has since before flood Legends, before we earn our way out of Quarantine? Does the Universe have a self protection mechanism to ensure the probability matrix doesn't get infected? Are these things we should talk about, around our Tribal fires.

[mitseraffej]

0:53 “ We do not live in a special location at the centre of the universe”.
I disagree.
As far as we know our location may or may not be at the centre of the universe, but from all we have learnt about the cosmos it sure looks as if our location is rather special. Everywhere else we know of appears extremely hostile to life.

[mrt]

colonizing space is fine but where the hell would we go? Everything is so far away. Our solar system has a few options but it would take ages.

[jordan_]

How is he defining what a special time and place is?

[jonathansmith]

... Even if you are taking the longer of those estimations, that doesn't rule out the collapse of the modern world and a mass die-off of humans. Not extinct but civilization becomes extinct scenarios...

[MinkePDX]

As usual, statistics can be used to prove anything you want.

[johnkoester]

colonizing the undersea would be less dangerous and cheaper. that's how higher organisms survived the great dinosaur extinction I think. the mammals spent most of their lives in the sea until they adapted to full time.

[jamesruscheinski]

human civilization based on UN international government would have expected longevity of 3.5 years to about 1463 years?

[OBGynKenobi]

I wonder if Sapiens will ever see it's successor.

[robertmiller]

Apocalypticism is as old as recorded history and non-historical storys

[Liberated_from_Religion]

This guy says all that, while, at the same time, being a Christian and, thus, believing in Heaven, Hell, etc. Does he suffer from split personality?

[neffetSnnamremmiZ]

While we all go, "God" comes. The one in the end is the same who was in the beginning!

[jareknowak]

This principle applies assuming that we are in a time that is "nothing special".
I dont think we live in "ordinary" times anymore, at least since the invention of nuclear weapon.
In addition to this, I think there are other reasons for thinking so, lets say of a social nature.
There has never been a period in the history of the World in which changes occurred so rapidly as today, both technical/scientific, cultural, interpersonal, Religious, economic. It can be considered that the World is not very stable.
It seems to me that there are reasons to think that we are much closer than farther (as long as it happens at all).

[jamesruscheinski]

basing human civilization on something that's been around many millions or billions of years would greatly increase the likelihood of longer duration?

[dadsonworldwide]

Soon as someone invokes repetitive natural selection did it and that deep time answers the question my respect for their credibility drops .
The fact that we are so influenced as a society by things that cause paradolia of the mind like industrial revolution that made us see mechanism everywhere we looked then now computation is driving us to see engineering and code every where is a cognitive bias that we have to combat.

Follow the evidence forget the predetermined models. Act like you don't have deep time or any excuses like natural selection ot god. It's synonymous beliefs system excuses.

[evaadam]

Doomsday is actually Doomsnight, and this doom can happen when your Godless soul returns to a cold dark state of nothingness (hell) but, when you have faith in a loving God, it would be a Bright Day for your soul as it returns to Heaven - our Original Home.