Ukraine's Ammo Depot strikes - How Complacency (and drones) Destroyed Russian Bases

Ammunition availability can make all the difference in a war, but only if it makes it to the troops on the front, rather than being destroyed in storage.

Over the course of several days, Ukraine recently succeeded in striking two Russian GRAU arsenals deep in Russian territory and a separate depot and storage facility, causing massive destruction and destroying thousands or tens of thousands of tonnes of Russian munitions.

In this episode I ask how long-range drones were able to destroy what were meant to be, in many cases, hardened targets, why the bases may have suffered the damage they did, and what this may all mean for the war going forward.

Patreon:

Special plug for the Battletech fans in the audience - Tex Talks Battletech : The Turning Point at Twycross

Reading and Sourcing:
The War Zone & Maxar Technologies - before and after images of target sites

Credit to @HartreeFock for his commentary on the construction phase of the Toropets magazines

Credit to @Tatarrigami_UA and Frontintelligence insight for their work on Tikhoretsk

Featured TASS reports
Reporting on Toropets

Claims of attacks on Ukrainian depots

Defence Express - identifying GRAU arsenals within 750km of Ukraine

Estonian 30,000 tonnes at Toropets figure

Additional featured imagery and coverage

Featured reporting

Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

Any content relating to the conduct and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or in relation to that person or character.

Timestamps:

00:00 — Opening Words
01:40 — What Am I Talking About?
02:06 — Russian Ammo Logistics & Storage
06:56 — Depots Of Interest
10:10 — The Attacks
16:10 — Anatomy Of An Explosion
29:14 — The Ukrainian Capitalisation
34:31 — Damage Assessment
42:21 — Implications
52:36 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

It took a while for the (literal and figurative) smoke to clear but I think we can now cover this development and both how it may have happened and how (and if) it matters.

One quick note/corrections.

At one point in this video I say that if a Western system like SCALP was involved in strikes on Russian targets without permission from the suppliers, there'd be serious risks for Ukraine. Strictly speaking, given the ranges to some of the GRAU arsenals discussed, JASSM-ER would probably be a better example as Storm Shadow only has the range to hit some of the discussed bases from Ukraine.

As noted in the channel update, I may face some difficulties getting a video ready for next week on schedule, but I will do my best and keep you updated.

[karlgrimm]

“We shot down the drones but the debris started a fire” reminds me of “The surgery was successful, but the patient died”

[ZergrushEddie]

Having a press conference to discuss the minimal damage done by drone debris while secondary explosions can be heard is peak “nothing to see here”

[rafis]

“We don’t have any *concrete* evidence… of corruption”

Oh well DONE sir

[AlexandruVoda]

"impromptu Ukranian quality assurance inspection" 😂🤣 Perun's sarcastic humor always delivers.

[thomasromanelli]

"It's the one underneath that giant mushroom cloud..." Classic Perun: accurate, satirical and informative. One of the highlights of my typical week.

[biggsdarklighter]

"Impromptu Ukrainian quality assurance Inspection"- ROFL (15:16)
God, I needed that laugh! Thank you and never change, perun.

[stitch]

Ammunition specialist here. You covered here perfectly! Accessible, comprehensive and detailed just enough for the curiosity of non specialist that want to learn.
Awesome job (but that tends to be your standards) and great narration and rhythm (as usual)
Congrats on the whole team, and thank you for the excellent report on this kind of niche piece of news.

[LarsvanZon]

An arsenal is not just storage, it is handling as well. If you buy only 1/3 of the needed fork-lifts, the arsenal will function perfectly in peace time. And if you are stressed, lift everything manual. Soldiers enough. But now soldiers are not as plenty-full as they used to be.
So when a train with supplies enters, what can you do to ease the job.... Put stuff outside, leave the doors open so you can enter without losing time...

[edwardloomis]

The image of Russian ammo storage at 23:57 is insane. The U.S. is more than a bit anal when it comes to long-term storage of ammunition, which results in a lot of it functioning long after one would expect. In 1985, I ran a .50 machine gun range in West Germany, and we were issued cases of belted .50 API-T ammunition stamped 1944. It functioned perfectly with no stoppages, and the bullets' tracer and incendiary components were spectacular during the nightfire phase.

[randomknight]

You know the 3-Day Special Military Operation is going well when Aussie PowerPoint Man is especially sarcastic in a video.

[Cancun]

The problem with North Korean artillery shells is not that they _fail_ to explode but that they tend to explode _too early, _ viz. while they are still within the barrel.
Even just a slight crack in the HE filling is enough to produce such a kaboom because it causes friction during the acceleration phase.
Which is why shells need to be x-ray inspected in the factory, which is one of the steps that makes them cost thousands of dollars a piece after all is said and done.

[ZontarDow]

The drones will continue, until morale improves.

[wargamingrefugee]

I'm pausing the video at seventeen minutes in to encourage viewers to to go back and watch some of Perun's earlier videos from two years ago, such as, "How Corruption Destroys Armies - Theft, Graft, and Russian failure in Ukraine". Talk about foreshadowing! Perun, thank-you for all of the remarkable insight and harnessing your explanatory ability. Learning never gets old.

[dixonpinfold]

The concept of CICI — corruption, incompetence, complacency and inertia — is priceless.
Thanks for sharing it.

[The_ZeroLine]

Regardless of how it happened, it’ll have truly theatre wide effects. The sheer amount of munitions + volume of storage capacity lost, increased distance to front of likely future storage, the destruction of trains and rails that will take weeks to clear, etc. will all hurt them badly.

[nicolek]

Not my idea, but I like it - suggestion that Ukraine names its next drone "Falling Debris" so that Russian reports of damage caused by falling debris could actually be accurate, for a change.

[andyan]

Striking when ammo trains are there to increase chances that there is ammo in the open is brilliant and it's very silly that it may not have been necessary

[holon]

I'd like to suggest, the constant movement of ammo towards the frontline by train, may as well have led to casual dumping ammo on the meadow, instead of in a bunker. Because it will be loaded on a train a day or 2 later anyway. That would be the lazy kind of "corruption" I would expect from the Russian army.

[TheEldritchGod]

We will now assess the damage.
**Does quick calculation**
It appears to be around 40, 000d6 damage x 3