Is China heading for a demographic crisis? | Inside Story

China's population has declined for the first time in more than six decades. The birth rate slowed to 6.77 babies per 1,000 people in 2022.
Compounding the issue is that deaths outnumbered births.
Economists warn that the low birth rate and rapidly ageing population will have far-reaching effects - not just locally, but on the global economy.
What is behind this downturn?
And what will it take to reverse the trend?

Presenter: Sohail Rahman

Guests:

Einar Tangen - Senior Fellow, Taihe Institute

Winnie King - Senior Lecturer in Chinese International Political Economy, University of Bristol

Guido Cozzi - Professor of Macroeconomics, University of St Gallen


#China #ChinaBirthRate #ChinaDemographics #ChineseEconomy

[millie]

Looking back, China would have been better off opting for a two-child policy in 1979, considering having two children per family is the minimum necessary to maintain population replacement levels, combined with having a T'ang Dynasty cosmopolitan approach to foreigners and immigrants.

[jl]

As an ex-pat married to a Chinese citizen for nearly 10 years and with a single child, I wanted to add my 2 cents on why couples are not having more children in China. At least in the province of Anhui where I am living in, is that the policies are contradicting each other related to population growth and seriously lack standard facilities to promote growth.


Although families are encouraged to have more children, up to 3, local policies are often contradicting the ability to do so.

Supporting facilities for families and services needed for couples to have a family are already limited, unregulated, or simply not available.
Have more kids, but all the things you need to do that we won’t provide more of and you know what, just for giggles we will reduce the ones you already have such as:

1. Municipal Policy changes have been shutting down private -Daycares-kindergartens-early childhood education businesses-training centers and workshops for students from pre-K to grade 12 etc.
While not allowing new licenses to be obtained or expanding remaining facilities, many communities are extremely underserviced and what is available; has increased in price or has no vacancies.
2. General Health care services -Limited overcrowded hospitals- next to zero private family doctors. Recently it took me 3-4 hours to check my daughter’s eye prescription and we arrived 40 minutes before opening. Local Hospitals are even worse and the only option if you have other health issues.
3. Real estate prices are extremely high as noted in the video which seems to be happening globally.
4. Really any public service is just as bad; often many government offices have different requirements and policies that clash with each other, regulations, and standards differ, etc.
5. Younger generations have been pushed so hard from k to university to get educated even studying majors in areas they despise. Causing burnout and questioning why they did it, to begin with. Many young adults want time to enjoy life and experience it.
6. International Nanny and other care providers were removed, and replaced by local untrained, and unregulated.
7. Financial burden is real, with 4 grandparents and additional children to take care of when most have little to no savings. ( as stated most can support themselves until a serious illness occurs)


China needs to align all policies in the same direction and develop complete internal standards nationwide and make it stable for young couples to have children. Population decline is happening in many countries, China is one of the countries that can turn it around faster than any other .. IF they can manage their policies properly.

[ImperialMJG]

Oh god...isnt that good? 1, 4 billion People? I dont think its a crisis that they lost a few millions

[CaiCaiTai]

Most of my cousins in China have 3 kids and some lucky ones stopped at 2 after they got a son. The minute when a married Chinese couple gets a son is usually when they stop having kids. My cousins who have more than 2 are the ones who kept having girls for the first 2 and they wanted a son. So, it depends, if you interview couples in China who already have a son, they will tell you "one child" is enough. If you interview one of my cousins who just had her second daugthers, she will tell you she will have another child.

[jhrusa]

Peter Zeihan has been saying this for 10 years now. One just needs to read his books, or look at his seminars on YouTube.

[jameslawrence]

China's population has been falling for 4-5 years according to bits of info from the 2020 census
Overcount of 100 million at least!!

Congrats India

[michaelspano]

my goodness who would believe it? hardship and discontent breed nothing more than more discontent. where will future consumers come from?

[charmaine]

If you look around, I would never think of having children if you see how life is no longer like before _ there were always family to nurture children but now homes are empty with parents at work, babies and children in day care and grandparents in the hands of nursing homes. So why bother. Work to pay taxes and give yourself less stress. No family means you don't need any goals in life maybe except buy a sprawling home, a car, pay insurances and interests and save for a good meaningful holiday.

[ksrithan]

Same situation here in Thailand, probably more severe.

[zoolander]

Its time to reduce income inequality globally.

[jaderdavila]

i envy those chinese unique kids. they inherit the house, infrastructure all made, girls dont get pregnant. china with 500 million will be paradise on earth.

[keyboarddancers]

Attempting to reverse large scale demographic decline is similar to attempting to divert the course of a very large earth-bound asteroid: you have to start trying *at least* twenty years ago.

[kidsoxoxox]

Some mammals are notoriously difficult to breed in a cage with minimal freedoms, frequent physical abuse, emotional abuse, constantly living in fear, bashed, shot at for howling and draconian restrictions, many humans are no different, China, the West, anywhere. Why bring another generation into the cage to continue the humiliation and suffering. The cage for Humanity has become smaller with every year to the point that the very angry wolves will probably rip the keepers apart in a revolution that will made the French and Russian revolutions look rather civilised. Expecting humanity to be nationlistic is like expecting the wolves to be proud with it's little cage. Humanity lost it's way well over a century ago when the Linearist starting pushing out the Lateral thinkers as the Russian economist Kondratiev wrote about, but Stalin had him killed.

[crishhari]

In this capitalist and consumerism based economy, the world will never have enough people. Imagine having 1. 4 billion people and still thinking that their aren't enough people. No worries if the large number of people leads to famine or over extraction of resources as long as the wealthy 10% can have cheap labour to exploit.

[TheSnowLeopard]

The only solution is immigration, but that doesn't seem likely given the current policies.

[scottwales]

Hmm, so apparently, it's easier to tell people not to have children and force women to have abortions than it is to encourage women to have more children than they want to have. These unintended consequences are hilarious 😂

[mosesoftheblock]

Ethnic cleansing of its own citizens (Uighurs) has repercussions.

[Godsplanever]

If this woman from Bristol said that China is a developing, not developed world, what does she mean? If China is not developed, how come they are helping other countries to develope? If China is not developed who is? and who can, please, furnish me with an idea or example of a developed country?

[SunnyR-yite]

Woman need more rights and freedom . Govt should not force to have more kids .shame

[aunkhet]

Quality vs Quantity referencing human life. What a western concept.