China Historian Predicts Xi Jinping’s Next Move - Rana Mitter | Endgame #185 (Luminaries)

Thank you to The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School for providing support for this episode.

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The future remains a mystery, yet glimpses of it can be found in the echoes of the past.

In this episode, Endgame speaks with China historian Rana Mitter to gain insight into the minds of Chinese leaders. The discussion covers potential military action in Taiwan, the future of US-China relations, and the implications of the Belt and Road Initiative for the region and the world.

About the Guest:
Professor Rana Mitter is an ST Lee Chair in US-Asia Relations at the Harvard Kennedy School. He was a Professor of the History and Politics of Modern China at the University of Oxford and the Director of the China Centre. Rana is also the author of several books, including “China’s Good War” (2020), “Forgotten Ally” (2013), “A Bitter Revolution” (2004), and “The Manchurian Myth” (2000).

About the Host:
Gita Wirjawan is an Indonesian entrepreneur, educator, and Honorary Professor of Politics and International Relations at the School of Politics and International Relations, University of Nottingham. He is also a visiting scholar at The Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) at Stanford University (2022—2024) and a fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

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Content:
00:00 - Intro
03:21 - Rana Mitter’s background
04:33 - ‘Forgotten Ally’ book
06:37 - Political liberalism in China: A possibility
11:31 - US-China Competition
16:51 - What could potentially happen in Taiwan?
24:55 - Is China winning from the current world wars?
28:28 - Belt and Road Initiative
40:25 - De-dollarization
44:58 - Should China remain open?
49:42 - Will AI exacerbate climate change?
53:24 - China-led global order

[renkosamareal]

Does anyone know the podcast that Rana Mitter mentions? what is it? feelsoft? filsof?

[tankimlai]

Gita, your podcasts always very real without any geopolitical motive unlike those western media BS hidden hands agenda. Blessing for your good health to continue your wonderful journey.👍

[MegaSuehan]

This guy is very western when he keep talking about freedom, liberal democracy. He doesn't really understand China. A more reliable person to talk about China is Prof. Ken Hammond. He is a history professor on China in the US.
Another person would be Kishore Mahbubani.

[pairsharechannel]

Terima kasih sudah memberikan tayangan yang menambah ilmu pengetahuan Pak Git.

[BestFitSquareChannel]

Among the very short list of remarkable conversations, I’ve had to privilege to experience. Thank you. Best wishes. Among the blessings of our cosmos may Peace be one.

[deanzaZZR]

What a treat. Professor Mitter is one of the most learned and reasoned voices in the western conversation on China.

[acuantjahyadi]

Sejarah china sudah terbentuk Ribuan tahun yang lalu, mereka telah melewati perang tiga negara yang salah satu peristiwa sangat besar pengaruhnya terhadap sejarah china , mereka telah meliwati banyaknya kerajaan kerajaan kecil yang saling berperang memperrbutkan wilayah , mereka petnah juga mengalami 2 jaman kebesaran dan ke Emasan pada dinasti Tang dan Ming , mereka juga pernah di perintah oleh bangsa Asing Mongolia dan Mancu. Semua berproses dengan Ajaran yang melekat dan berakar di setiap masyarakat China siapapun suku dan daerah. Ini yang mengikat mereka sampai sekarang siapapun yang memerintah.
Masyarakat China telah belajar dari sejarah mereka atas peristiwa sejarah mereka. Mereka terbiasa di perintah oleh sebuah kekuatan tunggal sebagai pemersatu siapapun Rajanya , apapun dinasti yang memerintah meskipun itu dari luar ( mongolia, mancuria) selama untuk kesejahteraan rakyat Seluruh masyarakat China mereka akan mempercainys. Bukan siapa yang memerintah. Jika tidak bukan Amerika atau barat yang akan memberontak dan mengulingkanya tapi seluruh rakyat China. Itu sudah terbuktk dalam sejarah China yang panjang. Jadi sekarang Partai komunis yang memerintah , mereka tidak perduli selama membawa mereka lebih baik dan aman dan sejahtera mereka akan menerimanya. Mereka hanya berpatokan hidup dari akar budaya nenek moyang mereka di pandu oleh ajaran yang di wariskan sejarah mereka KHONG HU CU. Itu terbukti sampai sekarang Meskipun partai yang berkuasa Partai komunis tetapi di China angota partai komunis hanya kurang lebih tidak lebih dari 8 % , ajaran komunis, Agama yang ada di dunia tidak akan dapat menghapua ajaran yang mereka wariskan turun menurun yang ada saling melengkapi untuk menjadikan keharmonisan masyarakat Tiongkok itu sendiri dan tidak untuk saling mendominasi.
Sepertinya itu inti dari masyarakat China di manapun.

[MegaSuehan]

Another person you can invite is Martin Jacques.

[adindahutabarat_sinolog]

23:13 they both do hv schemes of communication and cooperation....a lot, even there are desks or committees of each other on each and every issues 🎉

[hsheuw]

19:32 Kakek saya dari sisi Papa, seorang Hakka totok kelahiran Guangdong, memiliki saudara kandung di Tiongkok dan Taiwan.
Perang Dunia 2 Tiongkok-Jepang dan Perang saudara Tiongkok benar-benar memberikan dampak yang luar biasa pada keluarganya.

Dia yang tertua di antara saudaranya. Adik laki-lakinya, (叔公 saya）direkrut untuk bergabung dengan NRA (Tentara Kuomintang) dan melawan Tentara Kekaisaran Jepang. Singkat cerita, dia terpaksa pindah ke Taiwan setelah kekalahan Nasionalis. Sayangnya, dia terpisah dari adiknya, (姑婆） saya yang memilih untuk tinggal di Guangdong.

Saya bahkan belum lahir saat itu. Saya tidak yakin apakah mereka masih tetap berhubungan satu sama lain selama masa-masa sulit seperti ini.

Tapi lihatlah, saya berhasil mempertemukan mereka di hari pernikahan saya di Jakarta pada tahun 2016. Ada sekitar 10-15 keturunan mereka dari Tiongkok dan Taiwan. Itu adalah momen yang sangat indah melihat mereka bertemu satu sama lain. Saya tidak melihat apa pun kecuali interaksi hangat di antara mereka.

Siapa yang waras yang ingin berperang setelah melihat hal ini?

Saya juga mengunjungi Taiwan bulan lalu. Itu adalah kunjungan kedua saya dalam 11 tahun. Saya terkesan dengan tempat itu pada tahun 2013. Namun saya tidak begitu terkesan pada tahun 2024. Semuanya terasa tua, stagnan, dan ga ada rasa optimisme. Itu pengamatan saya selama 10 hari saya tinggal di sana..

Saya yakin stasiun HSR buatan China di Jakarta terlihat lebih bagus dibandingkan stasiun HSR/kereta Taiwan mana pun. Belum lagi kecepatannya juga bisa lebih cepat (KCIC : 350 kpj vs KC Taiwan : 300 kpj). 😂.

Kalo Taiwan sampe nekat ngotot lawan PLA Tiongkok, Saya tidak melihat jalan realistis menuju kemenangan dalam perang terbuka baik dengan / tanpa intervensi militer Amerika. Melek matalah dan lihat busuknya Amerika dan antek2nya untuk numbalin Ukraine buat kepentingan mereka ke Rusia! Tidak ada untungnya Taiwan ambil jalan naif seperti itu!

[GuyWhoLikesTheSnarkies]

Hanya berniat menaruh masukkan untuk dipertimbangkan oleh Bapak Gita Wirjawan nanti🙏: Nanti coba untuk ajak dialog bersama tokoh-tokoh akademisi, yang punya sudut pandang yang "berlawanan" dari perspektif kebarat-baratan soal China. Contoh: pakar ekonomi Prof. Michael Hudson, sejarawan Prof. Ken Hammond, pakar ekonomi dan filsafat Prof. Cheng Enfu, pakar ekonomi Isabella M. Webber dan Prof. Deborah Brautigam, dan pakar filsafat Gabriel Rockhill.

[TheLifeRoadessay]

Very insightful conversation. Thanks from West Bengal, India

[tonyhill]

China expected to "be liberal like the West".
Taiwan "a robust democracy". With brawls bteaking out in Taiwan parliament?

Invite Martin Jacques to talk to this "historian".

[kooisengchng]

The Western model in reality and in the future is for the West only. China has its own style of governance and its own economic style. Following western assumptions is not going to be accurate and will be completely misplaced. China is going through a big transition. Its past is a prediction for its future but its future is also moulded by its interactions with the West, principally US. If US presents itself as a friend, China will respond accordingly and develop accordingly as well. If US presents as a combatant, obviously China will respond accordingly and will not be in the direction that will be favourable to the West. So what will the future of China be? It depends on how the West treats China. Treat it well and China will respond favourable. Be combative and China will likewise respond in kind.

[Knoxt-Maitreya]

Damaged brains see everything as damaging 😢😢

[joechow]

Except for those coming from Taiwan, Hong Kong, these Youtubers are delivering their thoughts about modern day China from a westernized culture, religious belief standpoint. The entire Far East from Polynesia Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, the Indochina states of Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia to Burma all share some common culture unique to western culture. They are nations with Buddhism, Islamic and Hindu. There is no democracy for these countries, including the Philippines whose religion is both Christian and Islamic. For someone like Wirjawan to put things into the westernized world's perspective, you are bound to come to one one kind of conclusion on any issue - those you prefer to see as an outcome in the western civilization.

Those in Taiwan and Hong Kong are more liberal in thinking and has a deep root in Chinese culture. Things happening, politics in particular, stem from the views of a family culture, handed down years and years of reform under the Chinese traditional teaching of Confucius. Japan and Korea culture have similar roots as history and relationships of the nations with China in the past. So if you haven't been in these countries and live there for a while, but only speak from knowledge you learned through college, or "think tank" organizations (NGOs mostly funded by western countries studying China), you will never give a correct impression of the Chinese leaders, their mentality, or their genuine believes in politics.

Sorry to say this, correct me if I am wrong.

[erosz]

Mantap pak Gita.. Next session mungkin prof Yu Jin untuk mengurai ekonomi china secara mendalam

[yojimbo]

19:28 Wait wait wait, what is an "Authoritarian Democracy" LOL?

[syulisyuli]

Pak terjemahan bahasa Indonesia tidak ada

[mistman]

9:00

If liberal democracy is measured by the mob fist fighting in the legislature, then Taiwan is indeed a vibrant liberal democracy. I would also add the event that transpired on January 6th, 2021 in US capitol is deemed a insurrection, not democracy.

No, Taiwan is slowly transforming into a fascist regime. A ruling minority is quashing all opposition, not only with instrumentations of the state, but also the power of the mob.