Here's The TRUTH About The Potential Gulf Hurricane (Late September)

The is a high potential for a storm to enter the Gulf of Mexico next week. There is a chance for a hurricane in the Gulf, but currently there is no storm to track. While there is high confidence that a storm will form, there is low confidence on where it will go and how strong it will get. The euro and gfs differ greatly because how they are handling the upper level pattern. Subscribe to @just_weather for more weather content and analysis for the 2024 hurricane season, fall severe weather season and 2024/2025 winter.

Chapters:
00:00: Intro
00:30: Tropics Update Today (National Hurricane Update 9/20/2024)
01:30: GFS Model For Gulf Storm
02:00: Euro Model For Gulf Storm
02:24: Icon Model For Gulf Storm
02:40: Canadian Model For Gulf Storm
03:05: Upper Level Pattern For Steering Gulf Hurricane
07:11: Will A Hurricane Develop In The Gulf of Mexico
08:17: central American Gyre
10:00: Euro Ensembles For Gulf Hurricane
10:20: GFS Ensembles For Gulf Hurricane

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[just_weather]

Main point i want to make...there is high confidence that a storm will develop...however it's not expected to develop until early next week. Models will have no clue until that happens so there is no reason to be scared about models you see on social media. Everyone can enjoy their weekend and a just keep this in the back of your mind. We will know so much more by Monday/Tuesday. Potential impacts come late next week 9/26-9/30. Be safe friends! - Jonathan

[Lee-xfbk]

Thank you Jonathan. No hype. No predictive thumbnails that unnecessarily scare people about storms that haven't even formed yet. Just the raw science about predicting what may or may not happen.

[ashrithreddy]

Wonderful be safe everyone and will keep checking back for updates on the storm!

[RockySM]

Thanks for that info. I live in Southeast Texas Houston. We were hammered by Hurricane Beryl and had to replace our roof. I will stay tuned for further updates. This is very scary for everyone. May God bless us all.

[greyfoxnola]

Thank you so much for what you're doing. This channel is absolutely top-notch. As a homeowner on the Gulf Coast, it's nice to just get the information without someone trying to scare me to keep me engaged.

[RamonaLisa]

My experience living on the Mississippi Gulf Coast is that weather can change up til the last hours so I very much appreciate your forecast with all of the important info and I will be subscribing to you and watching for updates!
Sending Love from Gulfport

[matthenagan]

Thanks for actual weather information and not fake news. Some people will just believe anything that anyone puts out there for whatever reason. Thank you for actually forecasting the forecast and not just the models.

[williamwerneth]

Thank you for clearing this up. I’ve been seeing completely polarizing forecasts and predictions on this. This is the kind of explanation I was looking for. 🙏

[katchmeifyoucan]

Thank you for keeping it real with us and please keep "doing what you do". After Hurricane Ian, there were so many complaints of not having enough time to prepare in SW and Central Florida; with your forecast we at least get a little heads up so we know to be prepared. Thanks from West Palm Beach!

[hollyc]

Thank you for posting the thought process and data used to track these storms. We are in Southwest Georgia and were in Panama City, FL when Hurricane Michael hit. It was not really hyped up until very late in the track and that made the devastation a shock to everyone.

[sharonjackson]

We live in the western Florida panhandle, so we are watching this one. Thanks, Jonathan!

[iggymcgillicutty]

I appreciate the lack of over-hype, part of why I look here rather than the television. Keep up the solid information. Thank you

[lovegrows]

Thank you for the information! We are still waiting to make our decision on our vacation to Panama City. I am hoping by Monday there will be better agreements with the models.

[WrenBulldog]

So refreshing seeing and hearing un slanted weather reporting, I bet other meteorologists give you grief at times, so thank you for showing and tell it like it is 😊

[PaulaTourville-pofg]

In SW Florida nothing about rainy season has been normal .... So expecting the same out of any storm formation !

[SusanMusser]

I am scheduled to have surgery in Tampa 2 October. Praying for no storm near Florida Panhandle or Tampa.

[montecarlo]

You’ve helped calm my anxiety! I live in Alabama and the local weather folks are ready to declare this thing the next Ivan. Of course, I’ll still be very aware, but your report has helped settle my nerves 🙏

[CaroleScarborough-wy]

I love your calm and sensible reporting, and lack of hype. However, you won my loyalty forever because you correctly refer to the GULF and not the GOLF, the way so many weather reporters do.

[clairebanasiewicz]

It’s just nice to be aware of a possible storm, this gives us the opportunity to prepare and take notice of updates just in case.

[AceAsriel]

tunning in from Louisiana and as a high school student trying to go to college for meteorology this helps so much thank you for covering this!