Why Brian Wesbury is Bearish on 2025 | TCAF 172

On episode 172 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors to discuss his outlook on 2025, Recessions, Monetary Policy, Bitcoin, being an Eagle Scout and more!

More from Brian:

00:00 - Cold Open
07:42 - Intro
09:10 - Brian and First Trust
11:36 - Why Brian is Bearish on 2025
24:47 - The Biggest Risk to the Market
28:40 - Employment and Government Spending
37:08 - Federal Budget Madness
44:24 - Money Supply and The Fed
01:06:46 - Bitcoin
01:10:05 - Modern Monetary Theory
01:20:35 - Being an Eagle Scout

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IBIT is the largest spot bitcoin ETP by AUM as of 11/30/24 and most traded spot bitcoin ETP by 20-day avg. trading volumes from 1/11/24-7/24/24. Source BlackRock and Bloomberg.

Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. Investing involves a high degree of risk, including possible loss of principal. An investment in the Trust is not suitable for all investors, may be deemed speculative and is not intended as a complete investment program. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is not an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, and therefore is not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds or ETFs registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a recommendation regarding any products, strategies, or any security in particular. This material is strictly for illustrative, educational, or informational purposes and is subject to change. Investing in digital assets involves significant risks due to their extreme price volatility and the potential for loss, theft, or compromise of private keys.

iSHARES and BLACKROCK are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc., or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other marks are the property of their respective owners.

Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

ETFs invested in digital assets are speculative and involve a high degree of risk. Before making an investment decision, you should consider carefully the risks included in the prospectus. The trading prices of many digital assets, including bitcoin, have experienced extreme volatility in recent periods and may continue to do so. Extreme volatility in the future, including further declines in the trading prices of bitcoin, could have a material adverse effect on the value of the ETF shares and the shares could lose all or substantially all of their value.

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[joebagos]

Credit to Josh for allowing the guest to go on his rants while keeping a straight face. Credit to Michael for his subtle pushbacks. I followed this guy on Twitter for a while and knew he had strong opinions. But it wasn't until this podcast i realized he is downright nutty. The diatribe about eagle scouts and mass shootings was off-the-hook bonkers. Thanks Josh and Michael for a great show!

[justinmiller]

In the future please tag podcasts like this as “Uncle comes over.”

[GoodwalkSpoiled]

Wesbury's insights are right on the mark. Although many commenters dislike his opinion and outlook he is really good. He has the Fed's number. And the Treasury. His analysis of history is outstanding. He was absolutely correct that the problem in the crash of 2008 and the great recession was mark-to-market accounting - not the myriad excuses claimed by the Fed and Treasury. He would make a great Fed chair.

[edwardgiugliano]

I read some of the comments before I listened to this and expected a disaster of an interview. It was actually good and I learned a lot. Good job everyone and thank you.

[texasgal]

Great discussion. Wesbury spoke his analysis of the past 15 years from many position. I like that he was outspoken with his analysis.

[weho_brian]

Great episode, I really enjoyed the history lesson in monetary policy

[lukeneeley]

“If google spends 11 billion, alphabet has to spend 12” lmao

[Meishach]

Thanks for getting the obligatory bear out of the way early this year.

[jimdandyfield]

Never let a political ideologue like this guy manage your money.

[lauracronk]

My husband watched with me for the first time. (I have been watching a lot of hockey lately) He was blown away by the ease of how well Josh and Michael explain things. They are like regular guys he said! The guest was very informative as well. Always a good show!

[themusic]

Welp, never let an economist manage your money.

Got it.

[auspowers]

I'm not a fan of overly ideological people. I knew what we were getting into when ya'll mentioned he went to Hillsdale college. I went to a similar school...yikes, not great.

I once lost money in ARKK because I believed the "research" and "data" they claimed, that showed technology stocks would skyrocket in value. I should have run far away from that mess when noticing how zealous they are about their beliefs and theories.

This guy is a little like that. Notice how he mentions Keynesian economics, talks about "government" a lot, etc. This is a bad sign. Because somebody like that is interpreting everything through an ideological lens and skewing data to fit their beliefs. This is very different from, say, Tom Lee, who almost entirely bases his views on historical trends around any given topic. Data/facts vs theory/belief/ideology.

[LangFelix]

Next time you have Brian on, please bring JC as a counterweight to this ”the sky will fall because it must” attitude

Happy new year🎉

[c-note]

Jeremy Siegel still brings up the money supply and I will listen to The Professor thank you very much.

[jdaswell]

Mike was smirking the whole time. He wasn’t impressed.

[SynThenergy]

We need Cullen Roche as a fact checking guest after this 😂

[rpersaud]

To me. the X factor with NVIDIA is that every super cycle of their chip demand is bridged with another chip cycle demand. I can remember people saying NVIDIA was done because of gaming crash, then because of data centers soft demand, then it was a crash because of Crypto crash, then it will be done because of the AI crash. Not saying it won't happen, but i have never seen a company bridge to the next big thing so many times in a row.

[nowonderfreebeats]

Lol about the comparison of Palm pilot to Nvidia 😅

[chazmere]

Michael as a People Scout leader:

"Alright guys, who wants to learn how to get ripped off by Audi?"

[stevenlippold]

I follow Brian, I get his letter emailed direct to my inbox. His views are very counter to mine (thus the reason I follow). He's been very excited for the new regime change in DC and has been very critical of the previous regime (so it surprises me that he is bearish, can't wait to hear more about why).

I generally discount everything he says, especially about equities and alternative investments (crypto). He's worth listening to on the bond side of the market.