COP26: success or failure?

Not the COP26 video you probably expected me to make! I wanted to provide some meta context to the various hot takes that I've read on the Glasgow conference, and question why some people view it as progress and others don't. Ultimately I think it comes down to this: how do we talk about progress in the climate crisis? Where should we stand on the scale of optimism and pessimism?

REFERENCES

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Some stock footage courtesy of Getty.

Hopefully the last video you will see about COP26 for a while. I talk about the Glasgow climate change conference and whether it was a success or a failure. My conclusion is that our takeaways from COP26 depend on how we frame the climate crisis: do we view global warming as an existential threat or as an opportunity? Is climate change to be solved with existing power structures or require a radical rethink?

Huge thanks to my supporters on Patreon: Shab Kumar, Cameron Grey, Brady Johnston, Liat Khitman, Jesper Norsted, Kent & Krista Halloran, Rapssack, abruptbanana, Kevin O'Connor, Timo Kerremans, Thines Ganeshamoorthy, Jerry Moore, Sam Harvey (the ever lasting student), Ashley Wilkins, Michael Parmenter, Samuel Baumgartner, Dan Sherman, ST0RMW1NG 1, Adrian Sand, Morten Engsvang, Josh Schiager, Farsight101, K.L, poundedjam, Daan Sneep, Felix Freiberger, Chris Field, Robert Connell, Jaime Stark, Kolbrandr, , Sebastain Graf, Dan Nelson, Shane O'Brien, Alex, Fujia Li, Harry Eakins, Will Tolley, Cody VanZandt, Jesper Koed, Jonathan Craske, Albrecht Striffler, Igor Francetic, Jack Troup, SexyCaveman , James Munro, Oskar Hellström, Sean Richards, Kedar , Alastair Fortune, bitreign33 , Mat Allen, Anne Smith, Rafaela Corrêa Pereira, Colin J. Brown, Princess Andromeda, Aron Kári Ágústsson, Leighton Mackenzie, BenDent, Thusto , Andy Hartley, Lachlan Woods, Tim Boxall, Dan Hanvey, Simon Donkers, Kodzo , James Bridges, Liam , Andrea De Mezzo, Wendover Productions, Kendra Johnson.

[jasperallaert]

Hey Simon, don't know if you read these comments, but I tremendously respect your work and how you communicate these issues.

[SYMO_D]

But the bottom line is that just like the previous 25 COPs, the agreements are not nearly enough and as usual they are not binding. For the previous 25 COPs, almost no country has ever met its commitments, including the "landmark" Paris Accord, which like 1.5 countries actually met its commitments. This one will be no different. So not only is it not nearly enough but it won't be respected.

We need nothing less than a socio-economic revolution, a complete overhaul of the system that gave us Climate Change and is still subsidizing it to the tune of trillions of dollars. But I see no sign of that happening anytime soon.

[dr.zoidberg]

If a tiger is chasing you down, lazily strolling away from it _is_ progress in moving away from the tiger.

But if you don't run faster than the tiger, none of that progress matters.

[jox]

This one of the best takes on COP26 I've seen so far. You understand not only the topic, but also the reaction any news story is going to have to the people listening. Keep up the good work!

[stevespain]

@4:14 As a social sciences student I have issue with Simon's statements about what the conference will achieve, those 'physicist' assumptions premise this on governments doing as they have said. As an Australian I can tell you my national government has absolutely no interest in doing any assisting whatsoever - that's one of the highest per capita carbon producers. They are happy to say whatever they think the international community wants to hear, and then go back to actively supporting the fossil fuel industries. Are there any other residents from other countries who look at what their government have said in COP26, being absolutely not what they are willing to do? From an Australian citizen perspective how can anyone claim success or failure, when the input isn't honest? In this last sense it goes beyond a failure.

[monad]

Hi Simon,
I can't overstate how amazing it is that you do these videos. I'm not a scientist and having these things explained to me by someone who really understands the issues is incredibly helpful. Journalists, even if they are well meaning, often cannot properly understand the complexity of these topics and so having someone like you address the public directly is really fantastic.

[clivepierce]

Well done. One of the few atmospheric scientists amongst us who is making the effort to explain the science and policy to the public.
As you say, one has to tread a fine line between communicating the gravity of the situation while persuading the public that meaningful action is still achievable. However, I think it should be conceded that such meaningful action now requires unprecedentedly rapid socioeconomic change, and this is likely to provide those ill disposed to constraints on their carbon intensive life styles with reason enough to object or prevaricate.
Regarding use of the word “catastrophic”, while it is clear that humanity still has agency over just how bad things get, when entire ecosystems have already been irreversibly damaged and in some cases lost, it is also reasonable to conclude that existing climate change is indeed catastrophic, though use of such a term should be limited to a clearly defined context.

[Jason-gqfo]

yeah i struggle a lot myself when i see too much critisism of new pledges and things like that, it is hard not to be hopless if the press is too negative. You get the balance perfect and make me feel better about it whilst also understanding what can be done better and the issue as a whole

[MuddyDuck...]

You did a great job Simon of ‘threading the needle’ - trying to provide objectivity in a highly polarised area. 👍
But having worked in the field back in the early 80’s, when climate change was almost unheard of - my continuing concern is around the danger of lead-times. Despite the wealth of additional evidence over the last four decades to support the exact same warnings, successive politicians have by and large repeatedly kicked the can down the road despite much supportive rhetoric.
Climate change is not a switch, where you can suddenly step back from a crisis situation such as nuclear arms proliferation through a political treaty. It is much more akin to a living and evolving form of cancer, which if ignored long enough will result in irrevocable damage, if not worse.

[Essentially_Nobody]

1:54
Simon: "they are judging cop as a..."
Me: "cop out?"
Simone: "conference of the parties"

[Ondrej_Mottl_]

Big thumb up for the introspective and self-respecting work you have done while exploring this topic! That really struck me!
As always great work.

[PapaFlammy]

Took me a second to understand why you were changing clothes all the time XD

Great video! :D

[manwithadronespain]

Just stumbled across you on YouTube now and it's made my day, mate.
So many sensationalist articles on both sides of the spectrum that it's great to listen to an expert with a more balanced view.
Keep up the good work mate

[baxterclagmoar]

This could not have been communicated better. Such a complex situation and how we simply address and speak of it really does effect the actions taken. Thank you so much for making such amazing content! Super underrated.

[Jablicek]

If I've learned anything from air crash investigations, it's that pilots fight the problem, all the way down to the ground sometimes. It's what we should be doing, too.

[clockwardkailleach]

This is such an interdisciplinary issue and it's nice to see that be acknowledged! Thank you for providing context and sharing your motives!

[MedlifeCrisis]

Very innovative and engagingly done mate

[skididly]

I'd like to apologise for Australia's poor showing. Our politician's are are dancing to the tune of the mining industry.

[mikespark]

Excellent video, as a person who firmly believes we are doing nowhere near enough to head off catastrophic climate change (its already happening) I acknowledge your point that there is a very fine line that we all need to follow so that hopelessness doesnt become prevalent. And trust me, I have many days where that is just how I feel. I have a son, and therefore am highly motivated to do right by him though, and that means not giving up, not being hopeless, and instilling in him our desperate need for major change if we wish to live remotely as well as we have over the past many decades. Great video Simon! Subbing to ya!

[SonLe-ghdz]

I love how unbiased this channel is

Btw will bringing global temp to 1.5c stop increase rate of natural disasters